UK Politics: Testing, testing, one two free

[Spockydog]

 

 

[Spockydog]

 

 

[Heartofice]

27 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

On the day Joe Biden announces that 400 million N95 mask will be made available, free, to American citizens, Bozo announces he is abandoning all restrictions, including the wearing of masks in indoor settings.

If, by removing the mask mandate, Bozo hopes to boost the economy (actually, he doesn't, but that's what he'll say to appease his nutters at the back of the House), he may be surprised when many people stop going to the shops, etc. I will certainly be reducing my movements outside of the house because of this.

 

 

America in very different position to the UK. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Is that because the UK isn't still experiencing higher COVID numbers than ever and an increase in the death rate compared to immediately before omicron hit?

[Heartofice]

19 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is that because the UK isn't still experiencing higher COVID numbers than ever and an increase in the death rate compared to immediately before omicron hit?

No its because the UK is heavily vaccinated and boosted and cases are dropping. 

[The Anti-Targ]

The difference in vax rate between the US and the UK is not that much, and cases are also dropping in the USA.

[Spockydog]

The mask rule relaxation is nothing else but a bone to his crazy backbenchers. It is not supported by the science, or by the numbers. It's the absolute least people can do to protect others.

[Heartofice]

16 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

The mask rule relaxation is nothing else but a bone to his crazy backbenchers. It is not supported by the science, or by the numbers. It's the absolute least people can do to protect others.

Then keep wearing a mask

Plus protect who?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

24 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

The mask rule relaxation is nothing else but a bone to his crazy backbenchers. It is not supported by the science, or by the numbers.

Not a bone. Red Meat. Haven't you paid attention.

[Week]

56 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The difference in vax rate between the US and the UK is not that much, and cases are also dropping in the USA.

Thank goodness this is the last variant and wave of COVID-19.

/Time traveler from the future

[HexMachina]

5 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Will there be a farewell party at Downing Street, when Johnson resigns?

 

That's the kinda question I want answered.

A farewell work gathering, don't get it twisted!

[IheartIheartTesla]

Say what you will about Churchill, but at least he's no Boris Johnson.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

28 minutes ago, HelenaExMachina said:

A farewell work gathering, don't get it twisted!

I am sorry, and I stand corrected. But that leads me to a follow up question.

Did the Primeminister and his staff pay for their own booze, or was it paid for by the tax payers as work related expenses. 

 

[Werthead]

We've just had the highest number of deaths in one day for a year: 438 yesterday and 359 today (nothing like the normal Tuesday peak and then a sharp drop to Wednesday). But there is always a fatality-from-cases lag and it does look like the number of cases is dropping. Whether that is sustained remains to be seen, as we've seen previous high outbreaks where there's a drop but it was a blip and then cases continued to rise again. Certainly the evidence we are approaching the endemic stage is becoming more persuasive.

It feels like mounting pressure on Johnson. Some reports that other red wall Tory MPs are considering their position, and that group is now one of the largest and most influence blocs in the Tory Party, with several reportedly submitting letters of no confidence. They have the numbers to trigger a leadership contest by themselves.

[Heartofice]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

We've just had the highest number of deaths in one day for a year: 438 yesterday and 359 today (nothing like the normal Tuesday peak and then a sharp drop to Wednesday). But there is always a fatality-from-cases lag and it does look like the number of cases is dropping.

It is also worth noting you are looking at Deaths within 28 days of a positive test data, and yesterdays number was 85 and the day before 91, because of lag as usual, and backlogs of reporting over xmas. Deaths have gone up, but I'm not sure its valid to pulling out those numbers without trying to paint them as especially scary. UK death data is actually kinda flat. That isn't also counting the issue around from and with Covid that is becoming more relevant these days.

[The Anti-Targ]

My understanding is from and with COVID is a hospitalisations thing, not a deaths thing. If you die from a car accident but were diagnosed with COVID while you were in hospital and never developed symptoms I feel like the death certificate would just say injuries sustained in a car accident as cause of death. Or do people have evidence that death numbers are being fudged to make things look worse than they are?

 

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

My understanding is from and with COVID is a hospitalisations thing, not a deaths thing. If you die from a car accident but were diagnosed with COVID while you were in hospital and never developed symptoms I feel like the death certificate would just say injuries sustained in a car accident as cause of death. Or do people have evidence that death numbers are being fudged to make things look worse than they are?

As I understand it in the UK there are two sets of statistics published, one for deaths within 28 days of a positive test and one for deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. The death certificate number is larger than the other one and probably the more meaningful but the first measure tends to get discussed more because the results are published daily.

[Werthead]

12 minutes ago, williamjm said:

As I understand it in the UK there are two sets of statistics published, one for deaths within 28 days of a positive test and one for deaths where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. The death certificate number is larger than the other one and probably the more meaningful but the first measure tends to get discussed more because the results are published daily.

There is a third measure which compares the average number of deaths for a period in pre-COVID times and measures the comparative period during the pandemic period to see how many "above the average" deaths there are. You have to factor in things like was that a really bad flu year, for example, but it seems the best long-term way of looking at the number of people who have died as a result of the pandemic.

[The Anti-Targ]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

There is a third measure which compares the average number of deaths for a period in pre-COVID times and measures the comparative period during the pandemic period to see how many "above the average" deaths there are. You have to factor in things like was that a really bad flu year, for example, but it seems the best long-term way of looking at the number of people who have died as a result of the pandemic.

I thought most of the time they compare, say, Q1 2022 against the average for Q1 from 2014-2019, to reduce the influence of a single outlier year.

[Which Tyler]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

There is a third measure which compares the average number of deaths for a period in pre-COVID times and measures the comparative period during the pandemic period to see how many "above the average" deaths there are. You have to factor in things like was that a really bad flu year, for example, but it seems the best long-term way of looking at the number of people who have died as a result of the pandemic.

Yep - in terms of deaths, it's the best measure.

In terms of deaths, it doesn't matter if Uncle Tom died of Covid, or because Covid meant that there wasn't an ambulance / A&E space / Phlebotomist available.

It already takes into account "a bad flu year" as it's compared to the 5-year average (and usually the 5-year range as well, certainly when I do them).

 

Even with these "deaths versus the 5-year average" stats, you have to bear in mind that lockdowns reduce the death rate from other things (eg, measures that work against Covid also work against Flu; fewer car crashes when everyone's staying at home; old folk more likely to put the heating on if they're actually at home all day etc etc).

 

Otherwise, "Covid mentioned on the death certificate" is a far better measure than "within 28 days of a positive test" - and is larger because it's perfectly possible to die of covid more than 28 days after testing positive. Also worth mentioning here is that Covid is a multi-system (quite possibly pan-systemic) condition, but the public don't really seem to have realised this, they think it's a respiratory disease. It's perfectly possible for Covid to cause a stroke for example, but the public will often write that of as "died of a stroke, so not covid, why's that positive test 18 days earlier relevant?"