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COVID 45: Those Are Rookie Numbers


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35 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Well, I guess the silver lining is that many of these people will be, or will have close associates, affected by long term COVID disability because of their anti-vax and anti-public health measure views and behaviour. So that may moderate their eugenic thinking at least in terms of long term COVID care.

That's the optimistic read on the situation, the pessimistic one is that individuals will be quietly deemed part of "them" instead of "us"/not a core part of the family. I'd like to think the optimistic read will be the more common one.

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Trying to think of other problems that we should solve just by setting dates and then going back to normal

- okay, I know US wildfire season is bad, but what we should do is just fight the fires until, say, august. And then everyone should just go back to their homes

- let's do as much as we can about global warming until 2030, and then go back to normal. I'm sure that'll be fine

- best I can do on that whole chernobyl radioactive zone is 5 years tops, then everyone has to go back in

SURE you can pick holes in these plans, but at least it's a plan and we have to go back to normal SOMETIME

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1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

Instead of counting all the votes cast we should just stop after a few days

(Wait this was the actual trump proposal)

Pff, pussies count votes. In Trump's America, you just need Secretaries of States to find them. 

Also, everyone knows that once you test positive for an STD, you're all in the clear after 48 hours regardless of severity or follow up treatment, so go out and have as much unprotected sex as you'd like. Masks are optional.

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Has this been shared already? Anti-vaxxers so desperate to make people stop getting vaccinated that they resort to deliberate fabrications. Pretty much says all that needs to be said about anti-vax groups, assuming it's true that it is all a nasty hoax designed to scare parents.
https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/anti-vaxxers-fabricate-sydney-boys-death-in-latest-covid-vaccination-scare-campaign-as-jab-rollout-for-children-continues--c-5422212

Quote

Anti-vaxxers fabricate Sydney boy’s death in latest COVID vaccination scare campaign as jab rollout for children continues

But it’s believed to be the latest case of misinformation running rife - a deliberate attempt to discourage parents booking in to get their children vaccinated, less than a week after 5 to 11-year-olds became eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine in Australia.

There is no record of a Lachlan Leary who died in Sydney last week, or indeed at all.

NSW Health told 7NEWS it “has not been able to locate any record of any such incident”.

There are also questions surrounding the validity of Mr Leary’s profile.

News of the death, which ran on several unverified news sites across the world, pictured Steve Leary - a man who lives in the United States and served as the mayor of Winter Park - a small town in Florida.

 

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7 hours ago, horangi said:

Catching up on the thread, I was going to post almost exactly the same comment.  Maybe the answer to KoW's question on whether "half-closed" restrictions (with Kal's notes on hyperbole) should be left in place indefinitely is simply, Yes.  Maybe instead of trying our hardest to achieve status quo ante, we determine as a species that our little primate brains are capable of adapting as it has done in the past for better or worse (better for us maybe, worse for the rest of the planet).   No shoes, no shirts, no masks, no service.  I'm OK with society saying that those who refuse to practice basic disease prevention steps are also simply choosing to never go to a bar or eat out again. 

This is especially true because the conditions that led to COVID-19 emerging and becoming pandemic still exist. There's every reason to anticipate that the global community will face another pandemic in the next couple of decades, possibly sooner. The more we go back to 'normal' the shorter that period of 'normal' is likely to last.

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I think there is a perception among many that the ~100 years since the last global pandemic (read "global" as "actually affected rich nations in the West") is some sort of normal and once COVID vanishes or becomes just another flu, then there is no reason to assume that we won't have another period of many decades of normality.

That ignores that there have been multiple pandemics that have killed millions, but because they happened in poor countries or (mainly) to gay people, they can be safely ignored (as AIDS was up to the point it was understood it could be transmitted by blood transfusions and drug use, and straight voters were at risk as well). However, there seems to be a general agreement that we may have also been extraordinarily lucky in that viruses that did emerge in that time were either not easily transmissible or were too lethal, killing their host before effective chains of transmission could be set up (ebola). It's almost as likely that a completely new, global pandemic could begin next year with a hitherto unknown disease that we get another century of relative normality. If you factor in the role of resource exhaustion and climate change, making people eat things they shouldn't be eating or pushing people into areas where humans have not lived in large numbers before, another pandemic seems quite possible on a timespan of years to decades.

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@mormont - thanks for constructive post. I don't have much to add, frankly - while I concur with your methodology of leveraging various rights against each other, and not breaking each of them lightly and casually (even when one deems it necessary) - this same methodology has led to me different conclusion. Maybe a better one, or maybe worse - so we can just agree to disagree here.
 

11 hours ago, horangi said:

Maybe the answer to KoW's question on whether "half-closed" restrictions (with Kal's notes on hyperbole) should be left in place indefinitely is simply, Yes.  Maybe instead of trying our hardest to achieve status quo ante, we determine as a species that our little primate brains are capable of adapting as it has done in the past for better or worse

Respectfully, I don't think this will be the case. Humanity has suffered through much worse pandemics the covid one; which lasted much longer and has immeasurably more casualties - and yet it has always somehow returned to status quo at some point.

ETA - to factor in @maarsen's point. Yeah, there will inevitably some large-scale societal changes. There were before and it's likely there will be after covid. Perhaps "status quo" is not the best choice of words, something like "society largely governed by principles other then need for safety due to immediate medical threat" would better reflect what I was trying to say. 
 

17 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

Sure! I just don't agree that giving up because we just can't even and setting some random date in the future is a good idea for anything.

It's not random. It's the point in time when government can be reasonably sure that nothing more can be done and that keeping things closed/restricted/whichever verb you want to use is doing more harm then opening them. It's pure cost/benefit analysis, although it will have an arbitrary component because such analysis will inevitably be nested partially in ideological principles (which are arbitrary to a degree).

I don't think I'm proposing anything particularly outlandish here. United Kingdom already did just that - announced a date on which many restrictions will be lifted. Yeah, I know my point is kind of undermined as UK Prime Minister is well known for being an irresponsible clown, but at some point other countries will inevitably follow suit. They'll say: "we've done everything we could, vaccinated all those who wanted it with whichever amount of doses they wanted; we've provided enough vaccines for those who change their mind, as well as enough anti-covid medications; and we can overall be reasonably sure that due no rate of recovery+vaccination any new outbreak won't threaten to collapse our healthcare system. So it's time to open up".

I view it as perfectly reasonable policy. Again, that does not mean that such policy would be unchangeable and impervious to new developments (either positive ones - like virus weakening or finding some amazing new medication; or negative ones - like new variant which ignores omicron-based immunity) - but such policy needs to be in place and ready when the time comes.

All in all, I'm advocating for some kind of exit strategy. At some point in time covid will cease to be existential threat to humanity (if for no other reason, then because every disease in history followed the same pattern) - and I don't see any harm in imagining this as a realistic possibility and planning accordingly.
 

17 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

I also don't see how anywhere is keeping things 'half-closed', much less society. To my knowledge basically nothing is closed or even particularly restricted at this point. "Half-closed" at this point means what - people need vaccinations to go into restaurants and bars? Kids need to wear masks in school? This kind of hyperbole - where people equate some things stopped as a 'lockdown' and society being 'half closed' meaning 'some restrictions on people doing anything that they want, ever, in some places.


Well, that's very dependent of where you live. If I dug hard enough, I bet I'd find glaringly different approaches that various countries are taking to this current omicron wave - ranging from very liberal to very strict.
 

17 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

So here's another thought - what if this is the new normal and that wearing masks is a restriction that lasts for a long time, just like wearing shoes is? 

I like such hypotheticals, so I'll try to answer more elaboratelly.

If policy lasts after its intended use, it means that it serves a new purpose; different than the original one. Or that somehow if permanently has some beneficial effect on society. Masks have neither. We wear them not because we like them, but because they help to protect us during this out-of-ordinary medical circumstances. As soon as this circumstances disappear, so will the need for mask-wearing. I mean, true, there may be some people who will continue to wear them just to be on a safe side (which doesn't really work; as masks work by far the best when everyone is wearing them), some will incorporate them in their fashion style, some will like them for some other reason. But I can't ever imagine it being far-spread enough to reach societal level.

What permanent post-covid changes (well, not exactly permanent, but lasting at least for years, if not decade or two) will occur are going to be of completely different nature. I suspect we'll move in direction of openness and hedonism of every kind. Parties, alcohol, drug use etc. will all increase. So will sex and promiscuity - we'll have increased birth rate for some time. Travelling will become more popular. All of these will be trendy for some time before giving way to status quo (or however much of status quo is possible in this ever-changing world).

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The status quo has never returned after pandemics. After the flu pandemic of 1918 passed, having killed a huge swath of younger people, the world certainly did change. I think we are still feeling the effects.

The passing of the Black Death in the 14th century is cited as killing off feudalism in western Europe.

Humanity survives but having passed through a great filter one can be assured that the status quo will not return.

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1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

@mormont - thanks for constructive post. I don't have much to add, frankly - while I concur with your methodology of leveraging various rights against each other, and not breaking each of them lightly and casually (even when one deems it necessary) - this same methodology has led to me different conclusion. Maybe a better one, or maybe worse - so we can just agree to disagree here.
 

Respectfully, I don't think this will be the case. Humanity has suffered through much worse pandemics the covid one; which lasted much longer and has immeasurably more casualties - and yet it has always somehow returned to status quo at some point.

ETA - to factor in @maarsen's point. Yeah, there will inevitably some large-scale societal changes. There were before and it's likely there will be after covid. Perhaps "status quo" is not the best choice of words, something like "society largely governed by principles other then need for safety due to immediate medical threat" would better reflect what I was trying to say. 
 

It's not random. It's the point in time when government can be reasonably sure that nothing more can be done and that keeping things closed/restricted/whichever verb you want to use is doing more harm then opening them. It's pure cost/benefit analysis, although it will have an arbitrary component because such analysis will inevitably be nested partially in ideological principles (which are arbitrary to a degree).

I don't think I'm proposing anything particularly outlandish here. United Kingdom already did just that - announced a date on which many restrictions will be lifted. Yeah, I know my point is kind of undermined as UK Prime Minister is well known for being an irresponsible clown, but at some point other countries will inevitably follow suit. They'll say: "we've done everything we could, vaccinated all those who wanted it with whichever amount of doses they wanted; we've provided enough vaccines for those who change their mind, as well as enough anti-covid medications; and we can overall be reasonably sure that due no rate of recovery+vaccination any new outbreak won't threaten to collapse our healthcare system. So it's time to open up".

I view it as perfectly reasonable policy. Again, that does not mean that such policy would be unchangeable and impervious to new developments (either positive ones - like virus weakening or finding some amazing new medication; or negative ones - like new variant which ignores omicron-based immunity) - but such policy needs to be in place and ready when the time comes.

All in all, I'm advocating for some kind of exit strategy. At some point in time covid will cease to be existential threat to humanity (if for no other reason, then because every disease in history followed the same pattern) - and I don't see any harm in imagining this as a realistic possibility and planning accordingly.
 


Well, that's very dependent of where you live. If I dug hard enough, I bet I'd find glaringly different approaches that various countries are taking to this current omicron wave - ranging from very liberal to very strict.
 

I like such hypotheticals, so I'll try to answer more elaboratelly.

If policy lasts after its intended use, it means that it serves a new purpose; different than the original one. Or that somehow if permanently has some beneficial effect on society. Masks have neither. We wear them not because we like them, but because they help to protect us during this out-of-ordinary medical circumstances. As soon as this circumstances disappear, so will the need for mask-wearing. I mean, true, there may be some people who will continue to wear them just to be on a safe side (which doesn't really work; as masks work by far the best when everyone is wearing them), some will incorporate them in their fashion style, some will like them for some other reason. But I can't ever imagine it being far-spread enough to reach societal level.

What permanent post-covid changes (well, not exactly permanent, but lasting at least for years, if not decade or two) will occur are going to be of completely different nature. I suspect we'll move in direction of openness and hedonism of every kind. Parties, alcohol, drug use etc. will all increase. So will sex and promiscuity - we'll have increased birth rate for some time. Travelling will become more popular. All of these will be trendy for some time before giving way to status quo (or however much of status quo is possible in this ever-changing world).

What other than ditching mask wearing needs to happen for it to be a "return to normal"?  Not sure where you live but if you live in the US there have been basically no restrictions other than wearing a mask, and enforcement of that varies geographically.  

Other than masks being recommended throughout The Omicron wave we've been back to normal here since last summer.  

This 'pick a date" seems an incredibly roundabout way of making policy.  For mask recommendations, why use some transmissibility or hospitalizations metric instead?  Why this need for an arbitrary date?  

In fact the govt response to the pandemic has more or less been "get back to normal asap even when people are still dying".  Honestly cannot even see where this idea that we've as a society been dragging our feet to change policy away from pandemic measures is even coming from.

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14 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

1% of the entire population of Israel was just tested positive in a single day. Let that sink in.

Wow.  I did see that Israel is now the worst country in the world when it comes to cases.  Their fatality rate has also increased significantly.  Almost as bad as it was last summer (although, still much better than last winter).  It is also noting that the 4th vaccine did have some effect.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-ministry-4th-dose-triples-protection-from-serious-illness-for-over-60s/

Quote

 

The Health Ministry said on Sunday that the fourth vaccine dose for those aged 60 and up offers a threefold protection against serious illness and twofold protection against infection in the current wave driven by the Omicron variant.

The ministry said the figures are the result of initial analysis by experts from various leading academic and health institutions, and compares the fourth vaccine with those who received three doses at least four months ago.

 

I'm still curious to see how long this effect will last.  Looking at the current fatality rate, you wouldn't see an obvious improvement but Israel always had an uptake problem.

13 hours ago, karaddin said:

What I'm really worried about is in the longer term - covid is adding a lot of people to the numbers of people with long term disability.

Yes.  There was a UK study which suggested that even if you exit hospital (after been hospitalised due to COVID) your likelihood of dying (over the next year IIRC) increases by 4.

1 hour ago, Knight Of Winter said:

United Kingdom already did just that - announced a date on which many restrictions will be lifted.

I believe they first felt they were in control of the virus (due to vaccination) rather than just picking a random date.  Obviously, some people disagreed.  It was then delayed because of the rise of Delta (IIRC)

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For my part, I can’t tell what normal is/should be and how far/close we are from/to that. I can look at the current situation and say it’s pretty much normal, everything is open, yes I have to wear a mask in indoor public places and stay in quarantine for 7 days if I’m infected, but I can essentially do anything and everything I’m comfortable with. On the other hand, I can also look at the same situation and say, well, millions of unvaccinated people (that is people without three doses) are denied access to events and certain entertainment facilities (IF anybody cares to check for a vaccination ID -which nobody really does, to be fair), they are denied travel unless they pay a fortune for PCRs or get vaccinated against their will and there are those who received Sinopharm or Sputnik V vaccines which don’t qualify them to travel. So I could ask, when can we all travel and go partying without mandatory vaccine passes/testing and not have to wear a mask? 

But at the end of the day I don’t really care because I think normal doesn’t have all that much to do with what I can and can’t do legally, more with how safe I feel to do anything. And that varies for everybody, and I’m sure most people, here at least, feel pretty much normal since last May and were maybe a little vexed about having to put a mask back on in November. Then again those who feel vexed by masks don’t tend to be the people who feel unsafe or don’t lead their lives as they did pre-COVID. :dunno: 

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40 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

What other than ditching mask wearing needs to happen for it to be a "return to normal"?

well, over here we have: Covid check at work (3G) and restaurants and venues (2G+), closure of restaurants at 11 pm, twice-weekly tests at schools, homeschooling after a number of positive cases in class is reached, travel restrictions, testing requirements for travel & quarantine, passenger locator forms... I'm sure I'm forgetting a number of things.

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8 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

well, over here we have: Covid check at work (3G) and restaurants and venues (2G+), closure of restaurants at 11 pm, twice-weekly tests at schools, homeschooling after a number of positive cases in class is reached, travel restrictions, testing requirements for travel & quarantine, passenger locator forms... I'm sure I'm forgetting a number of things.

What exactly does this entail? And where are you located, again? Sorry, I’m sure I should know both. 
well that amount of testing is pretty good though. Are schools using rapid tests or PCRs?

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Luxembourg. The G's are a German thing. 3G is Geimpft, Genesen, Getestet (vaccinated, recovered, tested). 2G is vaccinated or recovered (but testing doesn't count). 2G+ is vaccinated or recovered and additonally either boosted or tested. Schools use rapid tests. If the rapid test is positive then PCR.

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