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COVID 45: Those Are Rookie Numbers


Luzifer's right hand

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21 hours ago, karaddin said:

Jerseys could also be lovely dairy cows that definitely don't deserve to get stuck blocking these guys in

Being dairy cows, they have the size and heft to do it.  Dairy bulls even more so, they’re huge!  But no, I agree, they deserve better. 

 

 

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9 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

That doesn't prove you haven't been turned into a human magnet, or been microchipped by Bill Gates and George Soros. So it's completely bloody useless for having conversations with anti-vaxxers.

It is, however handy for having a conversation with someone who is trying to weigh up the risk/benefit of vaccination.

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34 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

I'd agree, it's more targetting the vaccine hesitant than the anti-vaxxers - but I think it still counts as "anti-vaccine misinformation" that it's addressing.

Well the real issue is its probably already preaching to the crowd, it’s in the Guardian and it’s using fancy parallax scrolling designed for your fancy mobile screen. Mostly younger left wing people reading it, most of whom have probably already rushed out and got vaccinated. 
 

I don’t know how many people are hesitant vs simply being against these vaccines / conspiracy theorists vs just not being in any rush to get vaccinated because young or already had the virus. 
But I’d guess the target they’d really want to be hitting with this info is older, especially over 50, potentially ethnic minorities too as they are massively over represented in the unvaccinated category. 
 

This will probably have no effect on them at all, and will just get shared around like minded individuals on their own echo chambers. 
 

Plus how do you combat a distrust of the establishment by showing people a page from a very establishment website? 
 

Really to combat misinformation consumed by anti vaxxers you need to doing it in the place where they consume that misinformation. Whether that is podcasts or Facebook, or Twitter, tik tok.. wherever. 
 

You need people to go on Joe Rogan and outline why Malone and McCullough were spouting conspiracy theories and tell why he got it so wrong. Like recently when that Australian dude got Rogan to see how wrong he was about myocarditis.

Rogan has said he will do this but I have serious doubts. He clearly has his beliefs. 
 

Either way the main stream media is already distrusted and so it’s very hard for it to push back. Too often it just looks like it’s talking to itself 
 

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https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-hochul-covid-positivity-rates-under-5-percent-death-rates-still-triple-digits-20220203-kugfm437uzhetoukj3hal2wwe4-story.html

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New York State’s daily coronavirus test positivity rate slipped under 5% on Thursday for the first time since Dec. 12, but the virus death toll continued to grow at disturbing rates, according to data released by Gov. Hochul’s office.

The state reported 114 COVID deaths on Thursday, even as the count of New Yorkers hospitalized with the virus slipped by 7% in a single day. Deaths lag behind cases, and the omicron wave has receded swiftly after driving the daily statewide positivity rate above 23% in early January.

Still, yet another triple-digit death day signaled that the pandemic continues to pose a grave danger to New Yorkers who have not completed their vaccinations.

 

 

Our zip code tested at 6% positivity this week, which is a stupendous steep drop from two - three  weeks ago.

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This could be huge!

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/world-first-safricas-afrigen-makes-mrna-covid-vaccine-using-moderna-data-2022-02-03/

Quote

In world first, South Africa's Afrigen makes mRNA COVID vaccine using Moderna data

CAPE TOWN, Feb 3 (Reuters) - South Africa's Afrigen Biologics has used the publicly available sequence of Moderna Inc's (MRNA.O) mRNA COVID-19 vaccine to make its own version of the shot, which could be tested in humans before the end of this year, Afrigen's top executive said on Thursday.

The vaccine candidate would be the first to be made based on a widely used vaccine without the assistance and approval of the developer. It is also the first mRNA vaccine designed, developed and produced at lab scale on the African continent.

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) last year picked a consortium including Afrigen for a pilot project to give poor and middle-income countries the know-how to make COVID vaccines, after market leaders of the mRNA COVID vaccine, Pfizer (PFE.N), BioNTech (22UAy.DE) and Moderna (MRNA.O), declined a WHO request to share their technology and expertise.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

 

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Earlier than expected also. Still at least a year before they go into actual production but they'll be in a stronger position for the next pandemic hopefully!

5 hours ago, Zorral said:

The US fatality rate has continued to go up.  It'll be challenging records if this continues.  It has one of the worst rates worldwide now, even on a per person point of view.  Of its size, nobody is even close (although, Russia's numbers may be undercooked).

Otherwise, a lot of small things.  Novavax gets more approvals worldwide and has finally applied for US approval.  Moderna got full approval in the US but that didn't do much for Pfizer, as far as I know.  Sanofi and Valneva are looking at approval in Q2 for their vaccines but Sanofi hasn't released results yet.  Movement on vaccines for under 5's from Pfizer but probably 3 doses required. Although, Moderna is researching that demographic also.

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10 hours ago, Padraig said:

Earlier than expected also. Still at least a year before they go into actual production but they'll be in a stronger position for the next pandemic hopefully!

The US fatality rate has continued to go up.  It'll be challenging records if this continues.  It has one of the worst rates worldwide now, even on a per person point of view.  Of its size, nobody is even close (although, Russia's numbers may be undercooked).

Otherwise, a lot of small things.  Novavax gets more approvals worldwide and has finally applied for US approval.  Moderna got full approval in the US but that didn't do much for Pfizer, as far as I know.  Sanofi and Valneva are looking at approval in Q2 for their vaccines but Sanofi hasn't released results yet.  Movement on vaccines for under 5's from Pfizer but probably 3 doses required. Although, Moderna is researching that demographic also.

Novavax has some dilivery problems here from what I read. People who did not want the existing vaccines could pre-register and the start date just got pushed back.

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The thing about both these stories, is both the insanely high death rate nationally, and the deaths in New York state and New York City, are primarily by a vast degree among the unvaccinated, as are the hospitalizations. This despite the particularly high levels of vaccinations in NYC. But the incredible contagion and rapid spread of omicron really did kill large numbers of the unvaccinated, while creating many break through infections -- though by and very large numbers, people afflicted weren't that sick, and many were sick only for a short while, and didn't need hospitalization -- which saved NYC's hospitals -- just barely. Plus, of course, we have no way of knowing real numbers of anything, do the mess that testing, etc. are here. 

What is really sad though, is the deaths and hospitalizations are also predominately among the Latin and African American populations, which means the nation, state and city's done piss poor at proper messaging and outreach.  Plus, of course, as we all know, these are the populations that in state and city perform the majority of  'essential' work, and still must take mass transportation to get to that work.

Both reports are meaty with information, at least for how things are rolling here in the USA YAY, where we are, as we all know, the most special covidiots, with highest death rate of all.

"How New York City’s Hospitals Withstood the Omicron Surge
The highly contagious coronavirus variant stretched the city’s health care system to the breaking point, but not past it."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/nyregion/omicron-nyc-hospitals.html

"U.S. Covid Death Toll Surpasses 900,000 as Omicron’s Spread Slows
New case reports are waning, but deaths have yet to peak, and Americans are wondering what long-term coexistence with the coronavirus might look like."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/us/us-covid-deaths.html

 

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14 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

First lab results from the Moderna Omicron specific booster... No improvement seen wrt the original one.

Well.  Ouch.  Hard to see Pfizer/Biontech doing better if Moderna falls over, given the similarity of the two.

I don't think Moderna or Pfizer/Biontech got great results when they previously looked at different vaccines against variants.  But because Omicron was much more different than the previous ones, I did expect more.

12 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Novavax has some dilivery problems here from what I read. People who did not want the existing vaccines could pre-register and the start date just got pushed back.

That seems to be Novavax's eternal problem.  Manufacturing the thing.  Moderna and Novavax never successfully produced a drug before COVID but Novavax has had much more trouble with the mass production phase.  Only their Indian factories have passed the regulatory steps so far, even though they have sites in a number of countries in Europe and the US.

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One thing that confuses me a bit, is there any feasible way that vaccines can keep up with the variants?

These variants seem to have about a six to 8 month period when they become dominant and before they are shoved aside for a new more transmittable variant.  By the time an omicron specific vaccine is developed what exactly is the purpose of it assuming that most people have either caught it and developed an immunity to it, but not to the latest mutated variant which the vaccine wasn't designed to protect.

Unless the thought is that Omnicron is going into a perpetual endemic phase and nothing is going to shove it aside?

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5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

One thing that confuses me a bit, is there any feasible way that vaccines can keep up with the variants?

These variants seem to have about a six to 8 month period when they become dominant and before they are shoved aside for a new more transmittable variant.  By the time an omicron specific vaccine is developed what exactly is the purpose of it assuming that most people have either caught it and developed an immunity to it, but not to the latest mutated variant which the vaccine wasn't designed to protect.

Unless the thought is that Omnicron is going into a perpetual endemic phase and nothing is going to shove it aside?

In theory the only variant that will out-compete omicron is one that is better at spreading itself around. Probably a variant that's better at spreading itself around will be one where the period of infectivity lasts longer with higher viral shedding and symptoms are milder on average than omicron. Milder symptoms means people more likely to just put up with the annoying sniffles and get on with life, rather than not being able to function and being confined to bed, taking large quantities of painkillers just to be able to get some rest.

Now that the dominant variant in most of the world is a demonstrably less severe strain (esp for the vaccinated, but also to a degree for the unvaccinated), it's hard to see a more severe strain taking the dominant position.

Yesterday we had the highest daily case numbers since the pandemic began, 243. It's down to 208 today, but weekend daily case numbers all around the world have been consistently lower than weekday case numbers, so I expect the true case count is on a consistent upward trajectory. A doctor friend of mine based in Auckland is saying her and her colleagues are expecting the peak to hit around mid to late March.

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14 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

By the time an omicron specific vaccine is developed what exactly is the purpose of it assuming that most people have either caught it and developed an immunity to it, but not to the latest mutated variant which the vaccine wasn't designed to protect.

It also depends on what the next variation will mutate from.  All the original variants were similar enough to the original COVID-19 virus and that is why the vaccines continued to work well.  Omicron moved relatively far from that origin.  Given Omicron is now so prevalent, it is reasonable to infer that the next variant will be similar to Omicron (think of it as a tree and Omicron having the biggest branch.  The next branch may emerge from it).  Thus, a vaccine that gives protection against Omicron, should work against the next variant also.

Now, if we are wrong, and the next major variant arises from some different branch on the COVID tree, then we'll still have the original vaccine.  Hopefully that will continue to work.  We'd be very unlucky if this next variant evades the original vaccine and this new vaccine version.  But there is a risk!

If so, hopefully it will be mild.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/02/little-kids-covid-vaccine-doses-two-or-three/621464/

Interesting article on the issues with the kids vaccine.

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On 2/5/2022 at 2:53 PM, Frey family reunion said:

One thing that confuses me a bit, is there any feasible way that vaccines can keep up with the variants?

 

Won't it still cover Omicron, just with less effectiveness? It's still COVID, after all (I will admit, I don't know much beyond what I see on the news, so I could be very wrong). 

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