How Maegor (son of Aerion) could factor into Robert's Rebellion

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

50 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't find these motivations very hard to believe.

On the whole, I do believe the theory that GRRM planned to have a false Targaryen pretender since around ACoK, and all the Blackfyre stuff is about fleshing him out a bit.

[EggBlue]

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't find these motivations very hard to believe. Daenerys has never seen Westeros but she wants to take back her family's throne, right? Securing what you believe to be your son's birthright to rule over an entire continent is plenty motivation in my book. I'm not saying I think this specific version of the theory has >50% probability of being true, but I don't see motive as much of an obstacle to it.

yeah .. birthrights matter a lot in this world and it'll be acceptable if ,say, Illyrio's working on behalf of Serra and her son from another man. but there is still a difference between a girl who had been hearing about a birthright that's been taken away just a generation ago that's had immediate effects on her life and one whose birthright had been stolen 5 generations ago. also , if Serra "Blackfyre "  worked in a pillow house it makes sense that that situation was due to Maelys's usurpation and Golden Company's betrayal. so , I suppose the enmity she might feel towards GC would be more than her desire for IT. 

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, EggBlue said:

I think you're absolutely right. on the other hand, if Illyrio does have dragon blood himself , why would he want to put a distant cousin on the throne after so many years- assuming (according to general consensus) he and Varys had been planning to overthrow Targaryens ever since Varys step foot in Kingslanding?

Our evidence for Varys and Illyrio trying to overthrow the Targaryens during the reign of the Mad King are flimsy at best. They (or rather: Varys) must have some deep personal connection to Westeros to care for those people to the degree that he does. If he didn't have such a connection, why create the perfect king for Westeros and not, you know, for one of the Free Cities?

Varys having some Targaryen blood could explain this, although it doesn't have to be Blackfyre blood or even legitimate Targaryen/Blackyre ancestry. It would just work as well if he was an illegtimate descendant.

5 hours ago, EggBlue said:

even if there is any Blackfyre connection , my guess is it's through Varys . any explanation for Aegon ( Blackfyre / Pisswater /Targaryen) is probably through Varys's motivations.  now, why Illyrio is so invested in helping Varys can have a few reasons: 1) as we already know he owes him a lot and he has some affections towards Varys since they've been allies ever since their youth! 2)Varys ,being the intel king that he is, is blackmailing him 3) something we'll know in the next book through Tattered Prince 4) all the above . 

We know Illyrio has 'debts of affection to repay' to the eunuch ... but the question we have to ask if those debts are so high that Illyrio basically gives up his only child for that plan. And I say that unless Illyrio is also personally invested in the Iron Throne to some degree I don't think he would do this either for Varys and/or because of who his beloved wife was.

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Or maybe Varys is a Blackfyre who was gelded (unwittingly by a sorcerer...or perhaps not so unwittingly) and thus prevented from continuing the Blackfyre line. Maybe he's scheming to use the Targaryens to put someone, anyone of his choice on the Iron Throne before discarding the Targaryens. Or maybe he sees the future of his family in first Serra and then Aegon -- who may or may not be the son of Serra or Lemore -- after Serra's death.

Whatever Varys' background is - he doesn't deal much with the Golden Company. He doesn't come up in their talks, so if he was their true/original Blackfyre pretender we should expect them to be more interested in him.

Also, Varys' own plans clearly are not about avenging or restoring a dynasty. Aegon is supposed to be the perfect king. He makes him into or uses a Targaryen prince for the job because such a pretender has the greatest chance of success, but if he was about personal revenge and payback he would have told as much to Kevan in the Epilogue.

3 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't find these motivations very hard to believe. Daenerys has never seen Westeros but she wants to take back her family's throne, right? Securing what you believe to be your son's birthright to rule over an entire continent is plenty motivation in my book. I'm not saying I think this specific version of the theory has >50% probability of being true, but I don't see motive as much of an obstacle to it.

Dany has clearly less motivation to retake her father's throne than Viserys. And if we talk Blackfyre descendants we talk folks who actually never sat on the Iron Throne and who lost five (six, if you count Aenys Blackfyre as a pretender) pretenders and five wars in their futile attempts to gain the Iron Throne.

If the Serra woman actually started out as a sex slave in Lys and then found happiness and joy (or at least safety and wealth) in the house of Magister Illyrio Mopatis then I really see no good motivation for her to insist that Illyrio turn their only child into a pawn of a very risky game to gain the Iron Throne ... and the price is that they (or Illyrio) sees their boy again.

3 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Just to clarify, is it your belief that Illyrio does have Blackfyre ancestry and that Lemore is Serra? Or something else? If you do believe that, could YG not be the false dragon in Moqorro's vision?

I think there is a good chance that Lemore could be Aegon's mother - whether that means her name is Serra I don't know. The basis for that idea is that I find it very odd that Illyrio/Varys would leave crucial decisions about Aegon and his campaign to Jon Connington, a guy who doesn't even know who Aegon is. Lemore is concerned about Aegon for her own reasons, as her opposition to the idea to bring him to the Golden Company shows.

So far we only have Illyrio's word that the Serra woman existed (the picture he shows Tyrion could be a portrait of Daenerys). I actually don't buy Illyrio's tragic love story there since I think he was just manipulating Tyrion there, pushing his buttons by pretending he had also been in love with a prostitute once.

Keep in mind that Varys would have given Illyrio a complete and thorough profile on Tyrion's character and background.

Also, if we assume that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's but Illyrio's son and he was conceived only after the Sack (as implied by Tyrion thinking Aegon is 15-16 rather than 18) then it would be a very lucky accident that Illyrio had a son with Valyrian features with his beloved wife at the right time.

Rather, I think Illyrio had sex with a dozen or more Lysene whores with Valyrian features to actually create a son with the right looks who could pass for Rhaegar's dead son. If Serra were a true person she may have been the whore Illyrio married in the end - but likely not for love but to ensure that their child would be viewed as legitimate by the Pentoshi government. After all, Illyrio should have made plans that Aegon inherit his wealth if were to die early or something like that.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Serra woman actually started out as a sex slave in Lys and then found happiness and joy (or at least safety and wealth) in the house of Magister Illyrio Mopatis then I really see no good motivation for her to insist that Illyrio turn their only child into a pawn of a very risky game to gain the Iron Throne ... and the price is that they (or Illyrio) sees their boy again.

If you don't find any Watsonian answer convincing, the Doylist answer would be that the story wouldn't work in this scenario if she was uninterested in seeing her son/family on the throne. That aside, since you entertain the possibility that Illyrio's story to Tyrion is a lie, why couldn't that be the case in this scenario as well?

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, if we assume that Aegon isn't Rhaegar's but Illyrio's son and he was conceived only after the Sack (as implied by Tyrion thinking Aegon is 15-16 rather than 18) then it would be a very lucky accident that Illyrio had a son with Valyrian features with his beloved wife at the right time.

If you view it from the perspective of them always intending to impersonate Rhaegar's son then yes it's very coincidental, but it's possible they only thought of the idea when the opportunity presented itself. And if his mom is a Blackfyre I don't find it particularly lucky he came out with Valyrian features. The main line Targaryens in the story mostly retained Valyrian features even after multiple generations of marrying out. At the end of the day, GRRM isn't making Punnett Squares and flipping quarters to decide someone's features when they're important to the plot.

That's not to say I discount your theory about Illyrio either. There just seems to be something about the Serra story that implies it's there for a reason beyond Illyrio recalling his lost love or ingratiating himself to Tyrion.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If you don't find any Watsonian answer convincing, the Doylist answer would be that the story wouldn't work in this scenario if she was uninterested in seeing her son/family on the throne. That aside, since you entertain the possibility that Illyrio's story to Tyrion is a lie, why couldn't that be the case in this scenario as well?

A lot of people jumped on Serra as a secret Blackfyre/Targaryen after ADwD, turning her into Varys' lost sister and whatnot. I don't think we have enough information to speculate much in that direction ... unless she (or rather: Aegon's mother) were still alive (which she might be if she is actually Lemore).

What little we know about Illyrio's relationship to Aegon implies very much that the man doted on the boy and regrets the fact that he cannot see him now and hasn't seen him for years, apparently. If he were his father I think he needed a really good reason to allow him being used for as outlandish a plan as the Aegon thing.

3 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If you view it from the perspective of them always intending to impersonate Rhaegar's son then yes it's very coincidental, but it's possible they only thought of the idea when the opportunity presented itself.

That would then mean they still had a lot of luck having a son looking exactly right one+ year after the Sack. Which is still awfully convenient.

Them using an actual love child for such a plan doesn't strike me as very convincing and also internally at odds with Varys' agenda to create the perfect king from scratch. It makes much more sense that they would produce multiple children for this plan and then pick the one who is most likely to succeed then just jumping on the one child Illyrio happens to have.

3 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

And if his mom is a Blackfyre I don't find it particularly lucky he came out with Valyrian features. The main line Targaryens in the story mostly retained Valyrian features even after multiple generations of marrying out.

Yes, but they always maintained or returned to the incest thing. And you have to include all the Velaryons as well as Larra Rogare 'as incest-like' matches since they all had the Valyrian looks, too.

If Illyrio isn't a Blackyre/Targaryen descendant then his chances of producing a son looking like Rhaegar's Aegon aren't *that good*. First it is 50:50 whether it will boy or girl, and then the boy could favor the father more than the mother. Illyrio is still blond, but if their Aegon was a fair-haired boy with brown eyes they couldn't possibly sell him as Rhaegar's son.

And if Varys' Aegon is actually two+ years younger than Rhaegar's son as Tyrion's observation could imply, then they couldn't really afford to have multiple pregnancies in succession - they would have to have multiple pregnancies with multiple Lysene whores at the same time. Which is what I think they did.

3 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

At the end of the day, GRRM isn't making Punnett Squares and flipping quarters to decide someone's features when they're important to the plot.

Sure enough - but we already have the Lysene whore for that. It is no coincidence that Illyrio's beloved wife was allegedly a Lysene whore with Valyrian features. I mean, we don't have to go with my 'they tried with multiple Lysene whores simultaneously' (although I like that idea since it seems what Varys and Illyrio would do) but it is clear that George's own explanation as to why Aegon looks like a Targaryen if he isn't Rhaegar's son but Illyrio's by a Lysene whore is ... that this whore did have Valyrian features.

It is no accident that he established that Valyrian looks are much more common in Lys and Volantis - where even (or especially) prostitutes look Valyrian because they are bred to look this way.

3 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

That's not to say I discount your theory about Illyrio either. There just seems to be something about the Serra story that implies it's there for a reason beyond Illyrio recalling his lost love or ingratiating himself to Tyrion.

I definitely think her story is there to give us a mother for Aegon that isn't Elia. But even in context Lemore could still be 'Serra' - then only the part of the story where she died tragically would be a lie. Or perhaps also the part about Illyrio truly loving her.

The really big reason why I think Lemore could be Aegon's mother is that I don't find it very convincing or prudent of Varys/Illyrio to allow Connington to make all the decisions regarding Aegon. He is just one of their pawns, and when push came to shove he might act as a loose cannon. Especially since he doesn't really know the full truth about Aegon. It is not an idea I'd say is very likely or totally convincing, just something that might turn out to be true.

[Willam Stark]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think we have enough information to speculate much in that direction ...

Are you referring to Serra as a possible Blackfyre or as Varys' sister?

Because we have clues about her likely Blackfyre ancestry, but I agree with you on the Varys part.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would then mean they still had a lot of luck having a son looking exactly right one+ year after the Sack. Which is still awfully convenient.

All the Targaryen kings had Valyrian features, even those who didn't have a Valyrian mother (Aegon II, Maekar, Aegon V, Jaehaerys II) thus there is nothing weird here. GRRM gives to his characters the look he wants them to have for plot convenience, it's not the first time he does it and probably not the last.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Them using an actual love child for such a plan doesn't strike me as very convincing and also internally at odds with Varys' agenda to create the perfect king from scratch.

I don't recall Varys saying that he wanted to "create the perfect king from scratch", just that his Aegon has been raised to be a great king.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I definitely think her story is there to give us a mother for Aegon that isn't Elia. But even in context Lemore could still be 'Serra' - then only the part of the story where she died tragically would be a lie. Or perhaps also the part about Illyrio truly loving her.

The really big reason why I think Lemore could be Aegon's mother is that I don't find it very convincing or prudent of Varys/Illyrio to allow Connington to make all the decisions regarding Aegon. He is just one of their pawns, and when push came to shove he might act as a loose cannon. Especially since he doesn't really know the full truth about Aegon. It is not an idea I'd say is very likely or totally convincing, just something that might turn out to be true.

This is why I think that Lemore is actually Serra, who was born as Blackfyre, became Illyrio's wife and Aegon's mother.

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Are you referring to Serra as a possible Blackfyre or as Varys' sister?

To both, actually, since lots of folks seemed to suggest that she was both a Blackfyre and Varys' sister.

16 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Because we have clues about her likely Blackfyre ancestry, but I agree with you on the Varys part.

We do have clues about Aegon and Illyrio/Varys being tied to and having some hold over the Golden Company, but no actual clues that Serra is 'the Blackfyre link'. Especially since she is said to have been a Lysene whore - meaning she comes from a place where Valyrian looks are very common among sex slaves - completely undermines the idea she could be related to the Targaryens/Blackfyres.

If Serra had been introduced via Varys (meaning he had kept that little picture of her) or had been mentioned in any way by the Golden Company I'd say there was a clue there ... but as it stands I'd maintain if there is a clue in the Blackfyre direction it is exclusively Illyrio's hold over them, and Myles Toyne's willingness to make a pact with Illyrio and Varys.

16 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

All the Targaryen kings had Valyrian features, even those who didn't have a Valyrian mother (Aegon II, Maekar, Aegon V, Jaehaerys II) thus there is nothing weird here. GRRM gives to his characters the look he wants them to have for plot convenience, it's not the first time he does it and probably not the last.

Of course, but if the plot is - like it is here - that two guys use an impostor to play the role of a dead prince then it is more plot convenience than historical figures actually having the family traits this noble bloodline is famous for (not to mention that the looks of the Targaryen seem to have been determined before George actually bothered inventing a complete family tree).

Even more so if we have to imagine Aegon was conceived only after the Sack, i.e. his entire purpose was to play the role of Rhaegar's son.

16 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

I don't recall Varys saying that he wanted to "create the perfect king from scratch", just that his Aegon has been raised to be a great king.

Those were my words, but I think that describes what he does pretty well since he raised the prince far away from home and controls the entire narrative. Even if Aegon was actually Rhaegar's son ... if he became king Varys would have still pretty much created him.

16 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

This is why I think that Lemore is actually Serra, who was born as Blackfyre, became Illyrio's wife and Aegon's mother.

If that were the scenario then the Blackfyre link via Serra could make sense ... but if this was the case then Lemore would have likely not argued against presenting Aegon to the Golden Company. Not to mention that she herself might be familiar with/known by some of the officers and soldiers of the Golden Company.

[Willam Stark]

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We do have clues about Aegon and Illyrio/Varys being tied to and having some hold over the Golden Company, but no actual clues that Serra is 'the Blackfyre link'.

The Blackfyre male line is extinct, but Illyrio did not say anything about the female line. This means that a Blackfyre female or a male with Blackfyre ancestry through their maternal line could be alive. Serra had the right look and is a female, thus she might be the Blackfyre link. Of course she could also just be a Lyseni whore, but it doesn't contradict the informations we have on House Blackfyre.

44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

but if this was the case then Lemore would have likely not argued against presenting Aegon to the Golden Company.

Do you have the precise quote?

I don't have the English version of the books, it would be really helpful.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That would then mean they still had a lot of luck having a son looking exactly right one+ year after the Sack. Which is still awfully convenient.

 

I mean, this is a story. Sure, it would be convenient, but not unusually so for ASOIAF or any work of fiction

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but they always maintained or returned to the incest thing. And you have to include all the Velaryons as well as Larra Rogare 'as incest-like' matches since they all had the Valyrian looks, too.

Between Daeron, Maekar, and Egg, there were three straight generations of outmarriage and yet Jaehaerys, Shaera and all of their descendants besides two of Rhaegar's kids looked Valyrian despite being less than 1/8th Valyrian by ancestry. That's very convenient, but it's a story and Martin wanted most of the modern Targs to keep their distinctive look, so they did.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure enough - but we already have the Lysene whore for that.

My point is that if Serra is a Blackfyre and YG's mother, the odds of her or YG inheriting Valyrian looks isn't actually up to random chance, and it's not remotely implausible enough to be a problem for the narrative.

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A lot of people jumped on Serra as a secret Blackfyre/Targaryen after ADwD, turning her into Varys' lost sister and whatnot. I don't think we have enough information to speculate much in that direction

I think the Varys stuff is pretty unlikely, but I think there's enough to at least speculate in that direction for Serra even if it's not necessarily the most probable scenario. The note that the Blackfyre's died out in the male line, Serra apparently having Valyrian features, Illyrio's affection for her and the uncertain purpose it serves the story for him to talk about her etc. is at least enough to theorize that she may be the Blackfyre connection.

[Lord Varys]

On 1/28/2022 at 7:59 PM, Willam Stark said:

The Blackfyre male line is extinct, but Illyrio did not say anything about the female line. This means that a Blackfyre female or a male with Blackfyre ancestry through their maternal line could be alive. Serra had the right look and is a female, thus she might be the Blackfyre link. Of course she could also just be a Lyseni whore, but it doesn't contradict the informations we have on House Blackfyre.

Yes, the female line seems to be still around. But Varys/Illyrio themselves could be Blackfyre descendants through the female line. We don't need the Serra woman for that.

On 1/28/2022 at 7:59 PM, Willam Stark said:

Do you have the precise quote?

I don't have the English version of the books, it would be really helpful.

Quote

“Where in the seven hells is Haldon?” Griff complained to Lady Lemore. “How long should it take to buy three horses?”

She shrugged. “My lord, wouldn’t it be safer to leave the boy here aboard the boat?”

“Safer, yes. Wiser, no. He is a man grown now, and this is the road that he was born to walk.” Griff had no patience for this quibbling. He was sick of hiding, sick of waiting, sick of caution. I do not have time enough for caution.

“We have gone to great lengths to keep Prince Aegon hidden all these years,” Lemore reminded him. “The time will come for him to wash his hair and declare himself, I know, but that time is not now. Not to a camp of sellswords.”

“If Harry Strickland means him ill, hiding him on the Shy Maid will not protect him. Strickland has ten thousand swords at his command. We have Duck. Aegon is all that could be wanted in a prince. They need to see that, Strickland and the rest. These are his own men.”

“His because they’re bought and paid for. Ten thousand armed strangers, plus hangers-on and camp followers. All it takes is one to bring us all to ruin. If Hugor’s head was worth a lord’s honors, how much will Cersei Lannister pay for the rightful heir to the Iron Throne? You do not know these men, my lord. It has been a dozen years since you last rode with the Golden Company, and your old friend is dead.

[...]

“The plan was to reveal Prince Aegon only when we reached Queen Daenerys,” Lemore was saying.

“That was when we believed the girl was coming west. Our dragon queen has burned that plan to ash, and thanks to that fat fool in Pentos, we have grasped the she-dragon by the tail and burned our fingers to the bone.”

“Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver’s Bay.”

“No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass.” Griff slapped the hilt of his longsword with a gloved hand. “I have danced to the fat man’s pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? The prince is a man grown. His time is—”

[...]

“Bring the boy,” Griff told Lemore. “See that he’s ready.”

“As you say,” she answered, unhappily.

It shows pretty clear that Lemore doesn't trust the Golden Company nor is she eager to expose Aegon to potential dangers - the latter being the reason why I think it could make sense that she is his mother. In a sense, she cares more for his well-being than Jon Connington does.

But if she was a Blackfyre descendant herself, she would most likely not view the Golden Company the way she does. But her words definitely indicate she could know more about the whole plan that she gives away - or Jon Connington himself knows. Especially her defense of Illyrio.