US Politics: all the progressive's fault

[TargBaitedStrawman]

4 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Public opinion here in Canada is firmly against the protesters. These people are not questioning their government but seeing their tenuous grip on any real power slipping away as their Conservative party repeatedly shoots itself in the foot. We had an election in September and the position held by those clowns was repudiated.

Hello from the states, it all sounds similar to the situation here. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beta.ctvnews.ca/national/canada/2022/2/14/1_5781022.html

I can see the majority of Canadians condemn it.  There still seems to be alot of support for the protest with people donating to the cause and sparking international follow up protests. Can't wait for the freedom convoy into DC...

 

[TargBaitedStrawman]

22 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well you're changing your position.  Is it that Russia threats will lead to popular sentiment within Ukraine turning against their own government, or that it will motivate the regime to acquiesce to some of Russia's demands?  Those are two very different things, and the former is very unlikely - especially to the extent that it would provoke a regime change.  And Biden/NATO/the west have been very clear since this started they're not going to risk WWIII by sending troops to Ukraine in the event of an invasion.

Nothing was clear at the start. Very vague actually. Any position made clear or escalation came as a response from the negotiating table. I still think Putin is probing to find a way to take Ukraine without war while testing the response of NATO, same opinion. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

Nothing was clear at the start. Very vague actually. Any position made clear or escalation came as a response from the negotiating table. I still think Putin is probing to find a way to take Ukraine without war while testing the response of NATO, same opinion. 

No, Biden has always been clear he won't commit troops to Ukraine no matter what.  And while I agree it remains possible Ukraine may relent to some concessions (e.g. a pledge not to join NATO for a certain period of time) in order to stave off an invasion, that's not going to change the current regime, nor the rising animus towards Russia by the Ukrainian people - and thus it wouldn't be Russia "taking" Ukraine.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

Nothing was clear at the start. Very vague actually. Any position made clear or escalation came as a response from the negotiating table. I still think Putin is probing to find a way to take Ukraine without war while testing the response of NATO, same opinion. 

There are nearly 200,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.  That’s a 40,000~ troop increase from when Russia claimed mid week it was pulling back…

[TargBaitedStrawman]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

No, Biden has always been clear he won't commit troops to Ukraine no matter what.  And while I agree it remains possible Ukraine may relent to some concessions (e.g. a pledge not to join NATO for a certain period of time) in order to stave off an invasion, that's not going to change the current regime, nor the rising animus towards Russia by the Ukrainian people - and thus it wouldn't be Russia "taking" Ukraine.

We still don't know all the "sanctions" that will be placed on Russia if they invade. Even if Russia invades a total takeover would be difficult, they probably would annex another territory and yes sigh a pledge not to join NATO. Prolonged war benefits no one. 

[TargBaitedStrawman]

19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

There are nearly 200,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine.  That’s a 40,000~ troop increase from when Russia claimed mid week it was pulling back…

They really just ramped it up to 190,000 lol. If Putin invades he invades. I just think he is trying alot of alternatives before invasion. Of course it's still on the table. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

We still don't know all the "sanctions" that will be placed on Russia if they invade. Even if Russia invades a total takeover would be difficult, they probably would annex another territory and yes sigh a pledge not to join NATO. Prolonged war benefits no one.

Well sure if Russia invades a host of different outcomes may happen.  I was arguing against your original assertion that Putin's aim was to bluff in order to shift the Ukrainian public's sentiment towards Russia, which is both counter-intuitive and contradicts empirical evidence.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Yeah seems very unreasonable to think that Putin is some how going to win the hearts and minds of Ukrainians by escalating the threat of invasion.

 

[TargBaitedStrawman]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well sure if Russia invades a host of different outcomes may happen.  I was arguing against your original assertion that Putin's aim was to bluff in order to shift the Ukrainian public's sentiment towards Russia, which is both counter-intuitive and contradicts empirical evidence.

Likewise many different things can happen while NATO redeploys in Europe shifting opinion. My position is the same, you mentioned bluffing; I said testing the waters to see what he could get out of all this without full-blown war. Trying more gray war tactics. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

Yeah seems very unreasonable to think that Putin is some how going to win the hearts and minds of Ukrainians by escalating the threat of invasion.

 

He’ll use the “beatings will continue until morale improves” method.

[Zorral]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

He’ll use the “beatings will continue until morale improves” method.

The troll brigades are more than a small part of this -- as well as the 'trucker' insurrections.

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

My position is the same, you mentioned bluffing; I said testing the waters to see what he could get out of all this without full-blown war.

It was you who asserted Putin could affect a regime change and/or shift Ukrainian sentiment without actually invading.  That's what I was responding to:

3 hours ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

Putin has stated over and over that his main goal is to stop the expansion of NATO into Ukraine and eastern europe, he doesn't need to invade to change the pieces on the world chess board. We know he just wants to control Ukraine. Russian backed Ukrainian rebels can still take the country from within with close military support.

 

[TargBaitedStrawman]

27 minutes ago, DMC said:

 I was arguing against your original assertion that Putin's aim was to bluff in order to shift the Ukrainian public's sentiment towards Russia, which is both counter-intuitive and contradicts empirical evidence.

Rebels taking the country would be by force not swaying opinion however unlikely. No country's foreign/domestic policy is set in stone. Especially a young nation like Ukriane. 

This seems more like attacking/disembling an opposing view for the sake of it now. 

Just my 2 cents. 

 

 

 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

Rebels taking the country would be by force not swaying opinion however unlikely. No country's foreign/domestic policy is set in stone. Especially a young nation like Ukriane. 

This seems more like attacking/disembling an opposing view for the sake of it now. 

I'm "attacking/dissembling" this view because it's not realistic Russia could affect such a change without invading.

[Zorral]

12 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

a young nation

An imperial paternalist perspective if there ever was one, expressing how much Ukraine needs Russia to own it. 

[Kalbear]

I think Russia in theory could make Ukraine change if they effectively ruined Ukraine economy via threat of force. Months of companies pulling out and stopping work could cause that.

But it's not a sure thing and I don't think Russia is willing to wait that long.

[TargBaitedStrawman]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm "attacking/dissembling" this view because it's not realistic Russia could affect such a change without invading.

Fine, I think it's possible but it's becoming more unlikely as troop counts ramp up and tensions continue to raise. 

[TargBaitedStrawman]

4 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I think Russia in theory could make Ukraine change if they effectively ruined Ukraine economy via threat of force. Months of companies pulling out and stopping work could cause that.

But it's not a sure thing and I don't think Russia is willing to wait that long.

I thought Putin was willing to play more of a long game but as troop counts rise he does look impatient. 

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Ser Salvo Summerhall said:

I thought Putin was willing to play more of a long game but as troop counts rise he does look impatient. 

I think if things went badly in some way - worse weather or nato moving in - he might have. But he now has basically all he wants in place, and waiting more will only make Ukraine stronger. 

[Maithanet]

15 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I think Russia in theory could make Ukraine change if they effectively ruined Ukraine economy via threat of force.

Maybe, but I think that a staunchly anti-Russia strongman is probably more likely. 

Russia is in the position where they don't want a stable, prosperous Ukraine, because that would be a country that might meet the conditions to join NATO, and it makes Russia look bad in comparison.  So Russia has an incentive to make sure that Ukraine suffers as a result of this crisis.  They could realistically invade, crush Ukrainian infrastructure and then just...leave.  Yes, that would have casualties in the short term, but Putin doesn't much care about that so long as Russia doesn't get bogged down. 

For Russia, that would leave Ukraine impoverished, with a likely steady stream of people westward trying to emigrate to Romania, Poland etc.  Ukraine would have no hope of joining NATO or the EU for decades, because they'd have so little to offer. 

This plan definitely shows a lack of patience and has real downsides.  The US and EU would respond with sanctions, and those would hurt.  Russia would have to hug closer to China, which will grow increasingly uncomfortable as China is clearly the senior partner in that arrangement.  Russia's reputation (such as it is) on the world stage would be diminished.  Ukrainian terrorist attacks in Russia would probably become a regular occurance.  But it is achievable and would fufill Putin's stated goal of ensuring Ukraine does not join NATO anytime soon.