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Ukraine Part 2: Playing chicken with Kiev


Kalbear

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13 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

That matters a lot for keeping the territory.

So why wouldn't that matter to a smart person's calculation for invasion in the first place, particularly somebody who knows how that failure for Russia in Afghanistan.  Putin may not be any smarter than all the others who keep doing this, including the USA YAY, but he may be. We don't know, but we should know we shouldn't count on him being one or the other in terms of making our own versions of strategies and deployments.

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

So why wouldn't that matter to a smart person's calculation for invasion in the first place,

Because Russia may not care about keeping the territory, any more than, say, ghwb cared about holding Iraq. 

Russia absolutely obliterating Ukraine military, fucking up their economy and effectively causing a regime change or making Ukraine so unstable Europe is not wanting to touch it is an entirely reasonable goal for Russia. And threatening that unless Ukraine comes under the blanket of Russia is not a bad outcome either. 

 

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Current situation s already screwing up Ukraine's economy and making it unstable. Putin doesn't need to fire a bullet, the West is doing the dirty work of putting pressure. I wonder how Biden will reply to Zelensky's pley for him to visit Kiiv this week, to see if the situation is as threatening as he keeps saying, and to do an act of deterrence against Putin and support for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, I had a look at Lugansk's weather forecast. Not going to freeze soon:

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Luhansk+Luhansk+Ukraine

But then, what really matters is that the ground is reasonably solid and not muddy; that it's frozen or just quite dry isn't the key, the key is that it's not raining like crazy for weeks.

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Interesting movements today. The US and UK seem to have reached an intelligence consensus that Russia has reached the operational capability to invade and could attack at any time. The US embassy is relocating to Lviv in the west of Ukraine (almost right on the border with Poland, and easily reachable by NATO forces in Poland if they decided they need to go into escort embassy staff out). Johnson went as far as saying he believes an operation could start as soon as Wednesday.

OTOH, in a PR meeting between Lavrov and Putin, it sounds like Putin has given an additional window of time for diplomacy to work. Interestingly, the German Chancellor will be in Moscow tomorrow and it'll be interesting to see if an operation could start with a foreign head of state in the capital. Also some signs that Ukraine are rattled, with the idea of giving up NATO membership, at least in the short term, being raised and the Russians responding positively to that.

Some analysis that the Russian government was not quite expecting the level of international vitriol and threats to their economy they've received, particularly Germany's willingness to cancel Nordstream, and that may be causing a rethink. If Putin can sell the idea that Russian military deployment as caused Ukraine to climb down and rule out being in NATO, he can probably sell that as a major geopolitical victory without costing a single Russian life or causing further damage to the Russian economy.

Of course, if Putin has basically chosen to use military force and then looks like it's climbing down, that can be spun as a major weakness. Putin might also consider that outcome is too predictable and wants to use military force to simply show Russia's strength.

It also looks like is a plan afoot to call upon the Russian government to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as independent entities (straight out of the Georgia/South Ossetia playbook). If they agree, they could then issue an ultimatum to Ukraine to pull out of a region they designate and then invade if they refuse.

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3 hours ago, Werthead said:

It also looks like is a plan afoot to call upon the Russian government to recognise the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics as independent entities (straight out of the Georgia/South Ossetia playbook). If they agree, they could then issue an ultimatum to Ukraine to pull out of a region they designate and then invade if they refuse.

Right now, I rather suspect Putin will use this to get concessions from Ukraine - agreeing not to join NATO for the next years, agreeing to push for Minsk agreements and give more autonomy to Donetsk and Lugansk. If Ukraine's authorities don't agree, then it'll be time to recognize the breakway parts.

As for US and Russia agreeing to keep Ukraine neutral for the time being - say 10 to 15 years -, I'm beginning to wonder if this wasn't actually planned between them following last year's meetings, because (as probably obvious with my comments of these threads) I've had weird vibes of good cop bad cop for weeks, and depending on the week, the roles switched between US and Russia. They had to stage some big show for Putin to convince Russian hardliners he got results and for US to convince NATO and others that the US was ready to get tough but wanted to avoid WW3 more than that. Possibly Zelensky wasn't keen on that, and more than Zelensky, there are all the Ukrainian hardliners who still fancy they can take on the Russian army, and they were to be shown the error of their ways without causing a war and having most of them bombed to kingdom come. Well, at least that would be my ideal (as in "less bad") scenario for what's been happening for months.

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8 hours ago, Werthead said:

Interestingly, the German Chancellor will be in Moscow tomorrow and it'll be interesting to see if an operation could start with a foreign head of state in the capital.

Heh, it'd be quite surreal if Putin invades while Scholz is in Moscow tomorrow (or I suppose today).  It'd be like the real world/modern equivalent of breaking guest right.

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5 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said:

I was told it would be last week, and now its tomorrow.

The date that's been making the rounds since late last week is indeed tomorrow - February 16.  I'm not holding my breath either.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

The date that's been making the rounds since late last week is indeed tomorrow - February 16.  I'm not holding my breath either.

As I said above nothing is going to happen. In fact, russia is withdawing some forces right now

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28 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said:

In fact, russia is withdawing some forces right now

Aye, so they say.  Be interesting to see what Scholz says about it.

ETA - Quite the theatrical statement here:

Quote

Russian government officials moved quickly to accuse the West of hysteria and argue that the withdrawal of troops showed that Nato warnings of an invasion were spurious.

“February 15 2022 will go into history as the day western war propaganda failed,” Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, wrote in a Facebook post after the announcement. “They have been disgraced and destroyed without a single shot being fired.”

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3 hours ago, Falcon2909 said:

So when is Russia invading? I was told it would be last week, and now its tomorrow. 
Nothing is going to happen.

What a surprise, right?

 

Jul 30, 2014: Russia Has 15,000 Crack Troops on the Ukrainian Border - And Putin’s itching for a fight.
- Foreign Policy

Mar 19, 2015: Russia Expands Military Exercises To 80,000 Troops
- Defense News

Sep 1, 2016: Russia is massing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border. Here’s why we shouldn’t panic.
- Vox

Sep 13, 2017: What’s Putin up to? The Russian military buildup in Europe raises tension.
- Military Times

Dec 15, 2018: Ukraine Asserts Major Russian Military Buildup on Eastern Border
- New York Times

Jun 12, 2019: EXCLUSIVE: US Intelligence Officials and Satellite Photos Detail Russian Military Buildup on Crimea
- Defense One

Jul 17, 2020: Russia orders 'surprise' military drill in Caspian, Black seas
- UPI

Apr 2, 2021: Russian 'troop build-up' near Ukraine alarms Nato
- BBC

Jan 27, 2022: How Russia Has Increased Its Military Buildup Around Ukraine
- New York Times

 

Gotta keep the public on their toes. And we can't forget about that 2% GDP target for defense too! Better make it three!

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>the 10th of February

>Russia: we do not intend to attack

>West: INVASION IS ANYTIME SOON

 

>the 11th of February

>Russia: still not invading them

>West: INVASION IS NEXT WEEK

 

>the 14th of February

>Russia: We have military drills, that's it

>West: INVASION IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY, CIA REPORTS

 

>the 15th of February

>Russia: Troops returning to bases

>West: TRUST US, THEY'RE GONNA INVADE!!

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Read an editorial at CNN that is putting Europe's gas reliance at 38% from Russia currently.

 

Putin could turn off Europe's gas tap. This is the solution

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/opinions/putin-russia-gas-europe-climate-connolly/index.html

 

As the Ukraine standoff looms, Europe is already feeling staggering inflation in Energy cost, with the threat of getting worse if an invasion happens.

From the article-

In the UK, 22 million have been told their energy bills will rise by about £700  ($950) a year, which will hit the poorest the hardest. Recent, but as yet unpublished, figures crunched by the Global Witness data team found that consumer gas prices in the Netherlands and Estonia over the past year have increased by a staggering 62% and 122%, respectively.

 

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5 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said:

>the 10th of February

>Russia: we do not intend to attack

>West: INVASION IS ANYTIME SOON

 

>the 11th of February

>Russia: still not invading them

>West: INVASION IS NEXT WEEK

 

>the 14th of February

>Russia: We have military drills, that's it

>West: INVASION IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY, CIA REPORTS

 

>the 15th of February

>Russia: Troops returning to bases

>West: TRUST US, THEY'RE GONNA INVADE!!

Horseshit.  Saying “it could happen anytime” is not saying “it will”.  Are you claiming moving 130,000 troops right up to the border of another Nation-State isn’t a provocative action in its own right?

If Putin is pulling back. I’m delighted.  That doesn’t make his prior actions benign.

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1 hour ago, Mr Fixit said:

Jul 30, 2014: Russia Has 15,000 Crack Troops on the Ukrainian Border - And Putin’s itching for a fight.
- Foreign Policy

Russia  did invade and annex apart of Ukraine in 2014.

1 hour ago, Mr Fixit said:

Gotta keep the public on their toes. And we can't forget about that 2% GDP target for defense too! Better make it three!

Silly for NATO to talk about  or make preparations for Russia trying to  invade and annex it’s neighbors…again. 

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1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Silly for NATO to talk about  or make preparations for Russia trying to  invade and annex it’s neighbors…again. 

Don't worry. Soon it'll be China or some other poor sod in the Middle East or an alien invasion. We must always be vigilant; threats are everywhere and should be dealt with swiftly lest they destroy our way of life.

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I don't know about anyone else but I'm definitely in wait and see mode.  Yesterday we had the performative table scene Putin and Lavrov put on agreeing to give diplomacy a chance, as well as the Ukranian ambassador to the UK suggesting they may concede on NATO - then walking it back.  And today we have Scholz in Moscow.  This move may well be related to all or some of that in Putin's brinkmanship, and it's really not clear how at this point.

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