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Ukraine Part 2: Playing chicken with Kiev


Kalbear

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Russia adds 7,000 troops to Ukraine border, despite claims it would withdraw some forces, U.S. says:

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The official called the Russian claims that it was pulling back more forces from around Ukraine “false” and gave one of the grimmest assessments yet for the possibility of reaching a diplomatic solution to avoid war.

“Russia keeps saying it wants to pursue a diplomatic solution, their actions indicate otherwise,” the official said. “We hope they will change course before starting a war that will bring catastrophic death and destruction.”

 

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8 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Falcon2909

Same question.  Why is Russia adding troops while claiming it is withdrawing troops?

They did withdraw troops! Just like the said! They were tired and due vacation, so were replaced. Of course, they cannot leave their new forward posts unmanned! Inconceivable!

 

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West accuses Russia of trying to create pretext for invasion after shelling in east Ukraine:

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Ukraine accused Russian-backed separatists of “a big provocation” Thursday after shelling in the country's east, as the West said Moscow was trying to create a pretext for an invasion of its neighbor.

The shelling of a kindergarten, a flare-up in the long-running conflict in eastern Ukraine, further stoked tensions after the United States and its allies disputed Moscow’s claims of a troop pullback and said that it appeared to be “moving toward an imminent invasion.”

In response, the US plans to send forces to the Gulf of Tonkin to search for weapons of mass destruction.

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Russians released a letter basically rejecting all US proposals to find a peaceful solution to the conflict and they keep making unrealistic demands that NATO return to 1997 borders. They’re stating that all military aid to Ukraine must cease. It’s about as near to an ultimatum as you can get. More here:

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1494320795484631042?s=21

Additionally:

Moscow expelled the US Deputy Ambassador today, their embassy is also burning sensitive documents judging by the smoking billowing from their chimney. And there were a major amount of ceasefire violations in the Donbass early this morning. 

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22 minutes ago, Ghjhero said:

Russians released a letter basically rejecting all US proposals to find a peaceful solution to the conflict and they keep making unrealistic demands that NATO return to 1997 borders. They’re stating that all military aid to Ukraine must cease. It’s about as near to an ultimatum as you can get. More here:

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1494320795484631042?s=21

@Mr Fixit

 

@Falcon2909

So, are y’all still crowing about how stupid and alarmist the West is being?

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Ukrainian and American intelligence agreeing that the number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has surpassed 190,000. Rather than sending troops home, the numbers seem to have grown by ~40,000 in the last seven days.

Russia has "voiced concerns" that ethnic Russians are being targeted by Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and have offered to evacuate civilians from certain areas.

Russia has also announced major ballistic missile tests tomorrow, along with more military drills. Putin will personally oversee the drills alongside Belarus President Lukashenko, which has sent immediate red flags up everywhere.

Reports coming in now of what appears to be a car bombing in the separatist city of Donetsk, outside a government building.

 

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25 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ukrainian and American intelligence agreeing that the number of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has surpassed 190,000. Rather than sending troops home, the numbers seem to have grown by ~40,000 in the last seven days.

Russia has "voiced concerns" that ethnic Russians are being targeted by Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and have offered to evacuate civilians from certain areas.

Russia has also announced major ballistic missile tests tomorrow, along with more military drills. Putin will personally oversee the drills alongside Belarus President Lukashenko, which has sent immediate red flags up everywhere.

Reports coming in now of what appears to be a car bombing in the separatist city of Donetsk, outside a government building.

 

@Ser Salvo Summerhall

@Mr Fixit

Why are Russian Troop numbers near 200,000 if this is a bluff.

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35 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Ser Salvo Summerhall

@Mr Fixit

Why are Russian Troop numbers near 200,000 if this is a bluff.

If you're going to bluff you have to sell it.  

Whether they're going to invade unprovoked, trying to provoke an incident and then invade, or bluff, increasing troops serves all these purposes equally well.

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Sounds like the situation in eastern Ukraine might provoke an attack at any time now.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60428211

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The leaders of both separatist “people’s republics” in the Donbass have put out statements urging civilians to flee what they say is a likely attack by Ukrainian government forces.

Pictures have already been released, showing children being gathered together, ready for evacuation.

Moscow has weighed in, announcing that the acting head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations is flying to Rostov to set up accommodation for refugees.

Everyone arriving, the government says, will be given 10,000 roubles (around £95).

All this despite there being no evidence that Ukraine plans to attack. Any such plans would be suicidal for the government in Kyiv, given the Russian forces currently massed along its borders.

Kyiv is clearly alarmed. The Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Lt. Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, released a statement on his official Facebook page, directed mainly at civilians living in the separatist areas, saying “such scenarios are not even considered.”

“Militants backed by the Russian federation continue to aggravate the situation,” he said, “by deliberately misleading residents of the temporarily occupied territories.”

Other reports coming from separatist areas speak of air-raid sirens being heard and an explosion which destroyed a jeep in Donetsk. None of the details have been independently verified and all such information needs to be treated with extreme caution.

 

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The real question is why did the Kremlin claim they were pulling back earlier this week when obviously that wasn't the case - beyond domestic consumption purposes.  Which combined with that Putin/Lavrov demonstration on Monday clearly seems to be the only reason they did it.

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29 minutes ago, DMC said:

The real question is why did the Kremlin claim they were pulling back earlier this week when obviously that wasn't the case - beyond domestic consumption purposes.  Which combined with that Putin/Lavrov demonstration on Monday clearly seems to be the only reason they did it.

Because their goal is simply muddy waters and make it hard to know what the truth is. That's been a standard op for Russia for 40 years now.

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1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

Because their goal is simply muddy waters and make it hard to know what the truth is. That's been a standard op for Russia for 40 years now.

Again, didn't really muddy anything outside of Russia.

Yikes:

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U.S. intelligence shows that Russia has drafted lists of Ukrainian politicians and Russian/Belarusian dissidents in exile to arrest or kill if it invades, Foreign Policy’s Amy Mackinnon, Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch scooped. “The Biden administration has also been startled by how formalized the lists are, which appear to target anyone who could challenge the Russian agenda.”

Also saw German's Foreign Minister explicitly put Nord Stream on the table for the first time.

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