Ukraine Part 2: Playing chicken with Kiev

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

11 minutes ago, Mr Fixit said:

Don't worry. Soon it'll be China or some other poor sod in the Middle East or an alien invasion. We must always be vigilant; threats are everywhere and should be dealt with swiftly lest they destroy our way of life.

I repeat, if Putin is pulling back, I’m delighted.  A demobilization of his forces on the Ukrainian border doesn’t make his mobilization of forces benign.  

[Varysblackfyre321]

20 minutes ago, Mr Fixit said:

Don't worry. Soon it'll be China or some other poor sod in the Middle East or an alien invasion

Yes, Putin invading his neighbors and annexing his neighbors is as likely  as an alien invasion.

Lets just ignore all the time he’s invaded and annexed his neighbors.

20 minutes ago, Mr Fixit said:

We must always be vigilant; threats are everywhere and should be dealt with swiftly lest they destroy our way of life.

Sigh. do know nato, the US, the west whatever isn’t always the devil in every single situation?

And that simply opposing them doesn’t automatically mean one is in any shape in the right or has benign or benevolent intentions?

[Larry of the Lawn]

46 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yes, Putin invading his neighbors and annexing his neighbors is as likely  as an alien invasion.

Lets just ignore all the time he’s invaded and annexed his neighbors.

Sigh. do know nato, the US, the west whatever isn’t always the devil in every single situation?

And that simply opposing them doesn’t automatically mean one is in any shape in the right or has benign or benevolent intentions?

This is the "not all men" of international relations.  

[Maithanet]

There are many cases where US military adventurism has been terrible and ripe for criticism.  This just isn't one of them.  Russia is the one massing troops and equipment on its border.  The US is quite right to call that out and to try and pressure Russia back to the negotiating table. 

I hope this drawdown is real.  It is, at the very least, an odd announcement for Russia to make if invasion was indeed imminent. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Larry of the Lake said:

This is the "not all men" of international relations.  

Eh?

[DMC]

Putin: Russia ready to discuss confidence-building measures:

Quote

Putin said Russia is ready to engage in talks on limiting the deployment of intermediate range missiles in Europe, transparency of drills and other confidence-building measures but emphasized the need for the West to heed Russia’s main demands.

The statement followed the Russian Defense Ministry’s announcement of a partial pullback of troops after military drills, adding to hopes the Kremlin might not invade Ukraine imminently. The Russian military gave no details on where the troops were pulling back from, or how many.

Scholz said he agrees that diplomatic options are “far from exhausted.” The announcement of troops being pulled back is a “good signal,” he said, adding that he hopes that “more will follow.”

Definitely seems like Putin is legit ready to deescalate - hard to rationalize these moves otherwise - but there's still that tiny calamari voice in my head saying..

 

[Fez]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I hope this drawdown is real.  It is, at the very least, an odd announcement for Russia to make if invasion was indeed imminent. 

2008 Timeline

April- Russia begins building up peacekeeping forces in Abkhazia

May 31- Russia deploys railroad troops to Abkhazia

July 15- Russia begins conducting military exercises throughout the North Caucasus Military District

July 30- Russia withdraws its railroad troops

August 2- Upon completion of the military exercises, some Russian forces withdraw. Others stay and reinforce the borders.

August 7- Remaining Russian forces in Abkhazia and near the borders advance into South Ossetia

August 11- Russian forces advance into Georgia

 

So a partial withdrawal does not mean an invasion isn't imminent.

 

ETA: Caucasus, not Caucus. That'd be a very different thing.

[Werthead]

Yup, it looks like Putin might actually be getting ready to stand down.

Or he might be saying that and will then invade anyway a few days or a couple of weeks later when everyone is distracted by something else.

[Derfel Cadarn]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Yup, it looks like Putin might actually be getting ready to stand down.

Or he might be saying that and will then invade anyway a few days or a couple of weeks later when everyone is distracted by something else.

Yeah. His troops have just rehearsed the prep, camps are set up, and if they come back in a few months, there will be fewer people warning of invasion.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Yeah. His troops have just rehearsed the prep, camps are set up, and if they come back in a few months, there will be fewer people warning of invasion.

Can we provide or sell Ukraine advanced anti-Aircraft defenses in the meantime?

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Eh?

I’m assuming he’s trying to frame what I said—which was essentially an entity being opposed to the US or the west, doesn’t make them good or justified in any of their actions—as missing the point of criticisms towards how the west or US act on the world-stage.

 

4 hours ago, Larry of the Lake said:

This is the "not all men" of international relations.  

What your essentially doing is bemoaning how cops beat their spouses at a higher rate than the general public in a discussion on a woman called the cops to handle her abusive  EX-boyfriend whose threatening  go in her house and murder her unless she gets back with him.

It feels like your less concerned with actually protecting the victim as much than you are showing your disdain for an entity you dislike 

[DMC]

Ukraine Defense Ministry, banks hit by cyberattack amid tensions with Russia:

Quote

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense on Tuesday said it had been hit with a cyberattack amid heightened tensions with Russia and concerns Moscow could launch aggressive actions against the country, including a potential ground invasion. 

In addition, at least two Ukrainian banks and some ATMs lost connectivity, according the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, which is part of the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, Reuters reported. 

Netblocks, a watchdog group monitoring cybersecurity and global internet connectivity, confirmed that real-time network data showed a loss of connectivity to Ukraine’s State Savings Bank, impacting ATM and banking services.  

Well that era of good feelings lasted about *checks watch* eight hours.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I’m assuming he’s trying to frame what I said—which was essentially an entity being opposed to the US or the west, doesn’t make them good or justified in any of their actions—as missing the point of criticisms towards how the west or US act on the world-stage.

 

What your essentially doing is bemoaning how cops beat their spouses at a higher rate than the general public in a discussion on a woman called the cops to handle her abusive  EX-boyfriend whose threatening  go in her house and murder her unless she gets back with him.

It feels like your less concerned with actually protecting the victim as much than you are showing your disdain for an entity you dislike 

Cool story, Hansel.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Are the Russians actually demobilizing?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60398296

[Werthead]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Are the Russians actually demobilizing?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60398296

According to NATO sources, some units seem to be leaving, but others have been brought up. There's also the issue that if they were told to pack up and leave, they can't do that immediately, so it might be still a few days before you see evidence of that.

Whether it's a genuine climbdown or some kind of intelligence obfuscation before invading anyway is unclear. That should become clearer over the next week or so.

[Kalbear]

Per other sources while it might be true that personnel  are leaving, the equipment is staying put. And personnel are easy to move there and move back. 

Basically this is just bullshit, and the pro-Russian folks on this thread are happily eating it up.

[Larry of the Lawn]

49 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Per other sources while it might be true that personnel  are leaving, the equipment is staying put. And personnel are easy to move there and move back. 

Basically this is just bullshit, and the pro-Russian folks on this thread are happily eating it up.

Not naming any names but this is 100% correct, a few of the most active pro-dictator, anti-democracy, and pro-authoritarian people have been absolutely convinced by these recent maneuvers in my DMs.  They are eating it up with big ol' Russian battle spoons in each pro-Putin fist.

[Kalbear]

Russia building field hospitals near border per Boris Johnson.

On the one hand, I'm more right

on the other hand, that involves trusting Boris Johnson.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-crisis-moscow-says-western-propaganda-has-failed-without-a-single-shot-fired-12542524

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

On 2/15/2022 at 8:32 AM, Mr Fixit said:

Don't worry. Soon it'll be China or some other poor sod in the Middle East or an alien invasion. We must always be vigilant; threats are everywhere and should be dealt with swiftly lest they destroy our way of life.

So… are the Russians actually demobilizing?

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

Russia building field hospitals near border per Boris Johnson.

On the one hand, I'm more right

on the other hand, that involves trusting Boris Johnson.

https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-crisis-moscow-says-western-propaganda-has-failed-without-a-single-shot-fired-12542524

Boris Johnson does have a track record of claiming fictitious hospitals have been built, but usually when he's trying to take credit for building them.