House Frey's downfall

[Apoplexy]

22 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Only for the show, in truth the Lannisters know perfectly how trustworthy and loyal the Freys truly are and despise them nearly as much as the rest of Westeros as seen with Jaime and Devan, with Jaime telling to everyone's faces that the Freys are in no way qualified to talk about loyalty for having betrayed both the Iron Throne and Robb, beside they are pretty much using the Freys as scapegoats to be the only ones blamed for the Red Wedding. 

The Freys were awarded Riverrun in the books for turning on the Starks. 

And sure, Jaime does not trust the Freys. But the crown does not presently have any reason to add more chaos to the riverlands. The crown has control of most of the riverlands and nobody wants more unrest.

22 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And Littlefinger isn't going to continue the Lannisters and Iron Throne's policies once he has openly broken up with them after Sansa's true identity is revealed, and he could have a card to play by helping the riverlords to overthrow and take revenge on the Freys at least to try to give the impression of being on their side.

LF wont break with the crown/lannisters unless he knows someone can defeat the lannisters. And even then, he probably wont have unilateral decision making power about what happens in the riverlands.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

3 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

The Freys were awarded Riverrun in the books for turning on the Starks. 

And sure, Jaime does not trust the Freys. But the crown does not presently have any reason to add more chaos to the riverlands. The crown has control of most of the riverlands and nobody wants more unrest.

LF wont break with the crown/lannisters unless he knows someone can defeat the lannisters. And even then, he probably wont have unilateral decision making power about what happens in the riverlands.

Littlefinger is inevitably going to break up with the Lannisters, his plan of revealing Sansa's identity and of using her to gain control of the North and the Riverlands can only mean that he intends to turn on them soon enough, and he knows that without the Tyrells the Lannisters will be in no condition to punish him if he has the armies of the Vale, the North and the Riverlands behind him and that even without the two later regions the Lannister forces aren't in a position of force against the quasi-intact Vale armies and hard defenses.  

And he surely knows that the alliance between house Lannister and Tyrell is very fragile and that it's only a question of time before it totally crumbles, in fact he may have the means to accelerate it by using his knowledge of the Tyrells' part in Joffrey's death. 

Not counting that the Lannisters have far more urgent things to deal with right now, the Faith Militant and Aegon's forces, than to risk a war against the Vale that they cannot win in the situation they are.

[Apoplexy]

7 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Littlefinger is inevitably going to break up with the Lannisters, his plan of revealing Sansa's identity and of using her to gain control of the North and the Riverlands can only mean that he intends to turn on them soon enough, and he knows that without the Tyrells the Lannisters will be in no condition to punish him if he has the armies of the Vale, the North and the Riverlands behind him and that even without the two later regions the Lannister forces aren't in a position of force against the quasi-intact Vale armies and hard defenses.  

I'm not too sure about what LF plans to do with Sansa. He is creepily obsessed with her, I would bet he doesnt care all that much about the north. He probably wants to have her for himself somehow. He certainly wants control of the riverlands, because he that's where he grew up what he lusted after. He will only break with the Lannisters when he finds someone else who would give him more power for betraying the Lannisters. He does not have a lot of power by himself to do much.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 minute ago, Apoplexy said:

I'm not too sure about what LF plans to do with Sansa. He is creepily obsessed with her, I would bet he doesnt care all that much about the north. He probably wants to have her for himself somehow. He certainly wants control of the riverlands, because he that's where he grew up what he lusted after. He will only break with the Lannisters when he finds someone else who would give him more power for betraying the Lannisters. He does not have a lot of power by himself to do much.

He stated that he intended to get control of the North too, why would he not try to use her claim to get the North on his side too ? Additional manpower and ressources, even limited, are never unwelcome. And even getting control of the Riverlands with Sansa as his tool alone would put him at war with the Lannisters. 

And other than the knowledge of Olenna poisonning Joffrey, he also has an additional ace in his sleeve that he can use to devastating effects against the Lannisters and the Iron Throne, it's that he's still basically still the one controling the Iron Throne's finances with his men being the ones running the treasury and that no one knows for now how much wealth he has accumulated during his time as master of coin and the extent of his falsifications and sabotage of the crown books and finances during his time in King's Landing. 

Besides even if he doesn't intend to take power for himself the Lannisters are still far from in position to dislodge and punish him in the Vale, and he surely has many arguments and means to use to convince Aegon to accept him.

[Apoplexy]

1 minute ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

He stated that he intended to get control of the North too, why would he not try to use her claim to get the North on his side too ?

It would depend what his intentions with Sansa are. If he truly intends on marrying her to Harry the heir, then he cannot marry her to anyone in the north. And he more likely than not wnats to keep her close to somehow have her for himself. And LF is not from the north. Only having Sansa won't be enough for him to gain control of the north.

15 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Besides even if he doesn't intend to take power for himself the Lannisters are still far from in position to dislodge and punish him in the Vale, and he surely has many arguments and means to use to convince Aegon to accept him.

Making enemies with the Lannisters won't be in LF interest without additional help. The lannisters/cersei are definitely powerful enough to punish him if they find out he has been hiding Sansa. Which is why he won't reveal Sansa's identity until he has someone challenging the Lannisters on his side.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

19 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

It would depend what his intentions with Sansa are. If he truly intends on marrying her to Harry the heir, then he cannot marry her to anyone in the north. And he more likely than not wnats to keep her close to somehow have her for himself. And LF is not from the north. Only having Sansa won't be enough for him to gain control of the north.

Making enemies with the Lannisters won't be in LF interest without additional help. The lannisters/cersei are definitely powerful enough to punish him if they find out he has been hiding Sansa. Which is why he won't reveal Sansa's identity until he has someone challenging the Lannisters on his side.

It's not impossible to work if Sansa is still believed to be the oniy surviving member of house Stark and with the northmen being desperate to finally have a true Stark home, and Harold Hardyng would still be a better husband for her in northerners' eyes than Tyrion. The big flaw in this plan is the survival of Bran and Rickon, which only a few people know for now.

As for Cersei and the Lannisters they can hardly dislodge or punish him without the support of the Reach armies while he's in the Vale with its strong defenses and its armies that are intact while the Westerlands' are severaly weakened due to the war and especially to Robb's successes. 

And he can hurt Cersei and the Lannisters far more that they can do to him right now with his knowledge that can achieve to finish the alliance with the Tyrells and the Reach off, and thus ruining the Lannisters' last chances to hold the Iron Throne, and his grasp on the Iron Throne's treasury that he can still use to devastating effect if he wants with his men being running all of the crown's finances in King's Landing, helped by the financial crisis that the regime is facing due to Cersei's disastrous use of it and slighting of the Iron Bank.

[Apoplexy]

4 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

It's not impossible to work if Sansa is still believed to be the oniy surviving member of house Stark and with the northmen being desperate to finally have a true Stark home, and Harold Hardyng would still be a better husband for her in northerners' eyes than Tyrion. The big flaw in this plan is the survival of Bran and Rickon, which only a few people know for now.

The northerners wont accept someone not of the north, be it Harry or Tyrion. The boltons are of the north, which is why it worked with the fake Arya. And of course, other Starks are alive.

10 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

As for Cersei and the Lannisters they can hardly dislodge or punish him without the support of the Reach armies while he's in the Vale with its strong defenses and its armies that are intact while the Westerlands' are severaly weakened due to the war and especially to Robb's successes. 

The Lannister armies are in the riverlands. Jaime is AWOL, but the army is still there.

11 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And he can hurt Cersei and the Lannisters far more that they can do to him right now with his knowledge that can achieve to finish the alliance with the Tyrells and the Reach off,

The tyrells needs the Lannisters as much as the lannisters need the tyrells. Margery is queen because she is married to a baratheon king, whose mother is a lannister. Unless the tyrells can find someone better suited to sit of the throne than the Lannisters, they cannot do much by themselves. LF is lord of Harrenhal and the lord paramount of the trident. Yet he hasn't messed with the freys of the riverlands beacuse he doesn't have the power to do anything there.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

12 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

The northerners wont accept someone not of the north, be it Harry or Tyrion. The boltons are of the north, which is why it worked with the fake Arya. And of course, other Starks are alive.

The Lannister armies are in the riverlands. Jaime is AWOL, but the army is still there.

The tyrells needs the Lannisters as much as the lannisters need the tyrells. Margery is queen because she is married to a baratheon king, whose mother is a lannister. Unless the tyrells can find someone better suited to sit of the throne than the Lannisters, they cannot do much by themselves. LF is lord of Harrenhal and the lord paramount of the trident. Yet he hasn't messed with the freys of the riverlands beacuse he doesn't have the power to do anything there.

And these armies are still weakened and inferior in numbers right now to the Vale forces that are quasi intact and fresh, and far from sure of being able of breaching the gates of the Moon. 

And this alliance is going to completely crumble soon, nothing could stop the alliance from ending if somehow the truth about Joffrey's death is revealed to the Lannisters, and Cersei has already shown that she was completely willing to alienate and try to get rid of the Tyrells out of stupid paranoia. Her walk of shame, Kevan's death and Aegon's grow in power and coming closer to King's Landing are certainely not going to help her sanity and ability to keep the alliance intact.  

And without the alliance with the Tyrells that Lannisters have zero chances of punishing Littlefinger, nor of keeping their power over King's Landing and the Seven Kingdoms aside from the Westerlands. 

And if Littlefinger hasn't messed with the Freys it's because he's still busy in the Vale with consolidating his power and making his plans for Sansa, and because the moment to turn on the Freys and Lannisters isn't here yet, and that they are already playing their role as scapegoats for the rivermen to concentrate their attention and hatred on while not paying attention to why their supposed new lord is nowhere to be seen. 

 

[Apoplexy]

47 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And without the alliance with the Tyrells that Lannisters have zero chances of punishing Littlefinger, nor of keeping their power over King's Landing and the Seven Kingdoms aside from the Westerlands. 

How will the Tyrells benefit from opposing the lannisters? Why would they do it? 

48 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And if Littlefinger hasn't messed with the Freys it's because he's still busy in the Vale with consolidating his power and making his plans for Sansa,

I disagree. LF hasn't messed with the Freys because he doesn't have the power, nor does he care. He is lord paramount of the riverlands, he doesn't care who holds riverrun at the moment.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

23 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

How will the Tyrells benefit from opposing the lannisters? Why would they do it? 

I disagree. LF hasn't messed with the Freys because he doesn't have the power, nor does he care. He is lord paramount of the riverlands, he doesn't care who holds riverrun at the moment.

They benefit from avoiding a too harsh treatment and not losing everything once the Lannister regime is obliterated and that Aegon is officially crowned king and in power, and from not having to work with a mad woman trying to eliminate them even if she depends of them.

And they can't and won't be able of keeping the alliance alive for long with Cersei being back as the leader of house Lannister and resume her attempts to undermine them anyway, and if the truth about their role in Joffrey's death ressurfaces. There are points beyond which an alliance cannot exist anymore.

And they can still join Daenerys later to regain some of their power even if they won't be part of a royal family from it.

[Apoplexy]

30 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

They benefit from avoiding a too harsh treatment and not losing everything once the Lannister regime is obliterated and that Aegon is officially crowned king and in power, and from not having to work with a mad woman trying to eliminate them even if she depends of them.

Unless Aegon offers the tyrells something in return, they could defeat Aegon teamed up with the Lannisters. Margery is queen, unless aegon offers to marry her, the tyrells have nothing to gain.

34 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And they can't and won't be able of keeping the alliance alive for long with Cersei being back as the leader of house Lannister and resume her attempts to undermine them anyway, and if the truth about their role in Joffrey's death ressurfaces. There are points beyond which an alliance cannot exist anymore.

Right now, both the Tyrells and the lannisters need each other for the power they hold. There is no proof of who was responsible for Joffrey's death. LF's word wont stand against what the tyrells say. The alliance breaks only if one or both of them joins forces with someone else who has more to offer.

That holds true for LF too. He cannot oppose the lannisters unless he has very strong allies against the lannisters.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

8 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Unless Aegon offers the tyrells something in return, they could defeat Aegon teamed up with the Lannisters. Margery is queen, unless aegon offers to marry her, the tyrells have nothing to gain.

Right now, both the Tyrells and the lannisters need each other for the power they hold. There is no proof of who was responsible for Joffrey's death. LF's word wont stand against what the tyrells say. The alliance breaks only if one or both of them joins forces with someone else who has more to offer.

That holds true for LF too. He cannot oppose the lannisters unless he has very strong allies against the lannisters.

Soon they won't have any better alternative than to bend the knee to Aegon once they have suffered several major defeats and that Aegon's forces take King's Landing.

Right now the Lannister forces are weakened and focused in the Riverlands and the Westerlands, while the Tyrell forces are dispersed in their region to face the Ironborn, in the Crowlands to serve as King's Landing defenses and intimidate the High Sparrow and in the Stormlands to siege Storm's End. 

And soon the portion  of the Reach army that is besieging Storm's End will surely be defeated by the Golden Company, which will give Aegon control of the Stormlands, and he'll undoubtly get Dorne's support too thanks to Arianne, while the situation in the Riverlands will become explosive once the Brotherhood Without Banners deals its first major blow to the Freys, that the news of House Bolton's defeat and of a Stark being back at Winterfell come out.

Meanwhile Mace Tyrell and his portion of his army are in King's Landing, and Mace's refusal to leave until his daughter is acquited will surely give time to Aegon's forces to strengthen themselves and gain allies.  

As for the alliance between the Tyrell and the Lannisters it's not going to last for long anymore with Kevan being dead and Cersei becoming back the main Lannister player at King's Landing. 

And it wouldn't take much for Cersei to believe that the Tyrells are truly responsible of Joffrey's death given how paranoid she is, and her already believing that the Tyrells are out to get her and her attempts to eliminate them despite needing them. Littlefinger would just have to write a letter convincing enough or another fake proof clearly incriminating the Tyrells for Cersei to resume her anti-Tyrell crusade until the alliance is ruined beyond the point of no return. 

And right now Littlefinger, just like Varys, should have a good idea of how paranoid and incompetent and anti-Tyrell Cersei is and exploit it to his advantage if she tries anything against him.

[Apoplexy]

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Soon they won't have any better alternative than to bend the knee to Aegon once they have suffered several major defeats and that Aegon's forces take King's Landing.

That's not a given. The tyrells and lannisters have home ground advantage. And aegon does not dragons. Aegon would need a really large army and really good battle commanders to take control of KL.

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

As for the alliance between the Tyrell and the Lannisters it's not going to last for long anymore with Kevan being dead and Cersei becoming back the main Lannister player at King's Landing.

Unless most of westeros supports aegon and aegon marries margery to make her queen, the tyrells have no reason to side with aegon.

6 hours ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

And right now Littlefinger, just like Varys, should have a good idea of how paranoid and incompetent and anti-Tyrell Cersei is and exploit it to his advantage if she tries anything against him.

The tyrells know better than to trust LF. It would be a really bad idea to support LF to cause unrest in the riverlands again. And it would be a really bad idea for LF to try to displace the Freys right now. And I really dont think he cares.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

1 hour ago, Apoplexy said:

That's not a given. The tyrells and lannisters have home ground advantage. And aegon does not dragons. Aegon would need a really large army and really good battle commanders to take control of KL.

Unless most of westeros supports aegon and aegon marries margery to make her queen, the tyrells have no reason to side with aegon.

The tyrells know better than to trust LF. It would be a really bad idea to support LF to cause unrest in the riverlands again. And it would be a really bad idea for LF to try to displace the Freys right now. And I really dont think he cares.

Oh but he has several advantages : He has the advantage that the current heads of houses Lannister and Tyrell are far from competent, especially Cersei who is insane and paranoid and unable of seeing the consequences of her stupid actions, and that the alliance between the two houses is getting frailer. And also these heads are currently focused on the High Sparrow , who could be possibly persuaded to join Aegon's side, and are greatly underestimating his threat right now.

He also has a crucial advantage and that is Varys who is working to accelerate the desintegration of this alliance, and who'll give him precious informations as soon as he can, and could assassinate anyone in the Red Keep if he wished to thanks to his unmatched knowledge of the keep's secret passages and rooms.

He has the advantage that the Lannisters' armies are severaly weakened and focused in the Riverlands and Westerlands right now, and that the Tyrell forces are divided in several groups, with the largest army and the most competent Tyrells being focused on defending their home region and working to repel the Ironborn, while Mace is focused in King's Landing and refusing to leave the capital as long as Margaery isn't free.  

He has with him the Golden Company, whose numbers are limited but very formidable soldiers with far more experience and discipline than most westerosi armies, and Jon Connington who is far more experienced, cunning and pragmatic that he was during Robert's Rebellion. 

And he will surely benefit from support from Dorne, some defections from some Stormlands and Reach lords, and from the Lannisters losing allies soon enough such as the Boltons, the Freys and Littlefinger. 

And also something that could benefit Aegon is the presence of the Sand Snakes in King's Landing, and of the catastrophic financial situation the Iron Throne is in right now thanks to Littlefinger's sabotage and of Cersei's screw-ups with her royal fleet and the Iron Bank.

Also I never said anything about the Tyrells trusting Littlefinger, though they did enough to plot with him to murder Joffrey, I was talking about Cersei who is so paranoid and quick to see anything related to the Tyrells as proofs of them being out to get her. Littlefinger doesn't even has to write her a letter, he could just have to arrange for any "proof" saying that the Tyrells poisonned Joffrey to make Cersei to be sure that they did and to try to get them.

[Apoplexy]

1 hour ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

Also I never said anything about the Tyrells trusting Littlefinger, though they did enough to plot with him to murder Joffrey, I was talking about Cersei who is so paranoid and quick to see anything related to the Tyrells as proofs of them being out to get her. Littlefinger doesn't even has to write her a letter, he could just have to arrange for any "proof" saying that the Tyrells poisonned Joffrey to make Cersei to be sure that they did and to try to get them.

Staying on the Frey topic, even if LF can convince Cersei that the Tyrells were involved in Joffrey's murder, cersei won't be convinced that Sansa was not involved. And LF won't be able to convince cersei/the crown that the Freys need to be displaced after they got rid of robb stark for the Lannisters.

[James West]

On 2/7/2022 at 9:43 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

What form do you think that the downfall of House Frey will have once the consequences of the Red Wedding and their other actions fully catch up with them ? 

How should this downfall start ? Will it be caused by the death of the Late Walder Frey, or by something else ? How and when do you think that the old weasel will finally die ? 

What should be the fate of the other leaders and perpetrators of the Red Wedding such as Lame Lothar, Black Walder or Walder Rivers ? 
How many Freys are going to die ? Will they end up losing the Twins or at least most of their powers ? 

Also will there be at least some mini civil war between them over who should be the new Lord of the Twins ?  
Who will be involved in their fall other than Lady Stoneheart and the Brotherhood Without Banners ?

House Frey will fall.  Along with just about every House in Westeros.  Walder will be murdered by Arya.  But the cause of the downfall will be the same for just about all of the Houses, the long winter and the White Walkers.  The Starks will rise up in the north and retake Winterfell but they won't have much of a people to rule over because they will all become wights.  The White Walkers can only get to the Trident by passing through the North.  Just about everybody in the north, including Jon, will be wights.  Rickon or Bran will rule over a land of the walking dead. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 2/11/2022 at 3:57 AM, M.Alhazred said:

Nothing wrong with seeing those troll's heads on spikes. 

It depends on who. 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

On 2/13/2022 at 7:22 PM, Apoplexy said:

Staying on the Frey topic, even if LF can convince Cersei that the Tyrells were involved in Joffrey's murder, cersei won't be convinced that Sansa was not involved. And LF won't be able to convince cersei/the crown that the Freys need to be displaced after they got rid of robb stark for the Lannisters.

I don't think Littlefinger would ever bother trying to convince Cersei to dispatch the Freys, it's far more likely that he'll just get rid of the last Freys trying to oppose him once the house is already in chaos and that the Lannisters are in a hellish situation with Aegon, the High Sparrow and the Tyrells and that he moves on his plan to get the North and Riverlands under him, using Sansa.

Anyway he'll most likely be far more concerned about the Vale lords' reactions to Sansa's earlier than planned reveal than to Cersei since he doesn't see her as a threat anyway.

 

 

[Apoplexy]

On 2/15/2022 at 5:46 AM, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

I don't think Littlefinger would ever bother trying to convince Cersei to dispatch the Freys, it's far more likely that he'll just get rid of the last Freys trying to oppose him once the house is already in chaos and that the Lannisters are in a hellish situation with Aegon, the High Sparrow and the Tyrells and that he moves on his plan to get the North and Riverlands under him, using Sansa.

I see a lot of Starks coming out of hiding by the time the crown faces any challenge from Aegon or Dany. I see the Freys being dealt with by one or more of the Starks. It would be anticlimactic if the Freys were dealt with by someone other than a Stark.

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

On 2/7/2022 at 10:23 AM, EggBlue said:

daily conversations on book plots and characters( what will happen discussions , what if scenarios , clarifying what happened before , etc.) 

I like the idea of a “General Discussion”. Where you can chat back and forth on anything. Sometimes I feel like I spam on a thread, off topic but on a parallel subject. Kinda like what I’m doing now…