Aussies and NZers: Four seasons in one protest

[Wall Flower]

3 hours ago, Jeor said:

Truthful or not, there has been enough of that vibe around ScoMo now that some of it's going to stick. Will be interesting to see how this federal election pans out.

I'm guessing there's no chance that Satan's minions in the Murdoch press are going to start screaming that Senator Fierravanti-Wells is being bullied out by LNP mean boys?

[Paxter]

16 hours ago, Wall Flower said:

I'm guessing there's no chance that Satan's minions in the Murdoch press are going to start screaming that Senator Fierravanti-Wells is being bullied out by LNP mean boys?

On the contrary, Mr Howard has now dispelled the bully myth!

[Wall Flower]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

On the contrary, Mr Howard has now dispelled the bully myth!

 

His own side didn't call him the Lying Rodent for nothing.

Wheeling Howard out didn't do the LNP much good in the SA elections, so I'm not sure how helpful he can be to Morrison now.

[Paxter]

This does feel like the end of a cycle for the Libs. Many of their usual policy positions are either unpopular or irrelevant right now, e.g.:

• fiscal responsibility (the deficit has ballooned to around $100bn or 5% of GDP due to COVID)
• health care sustainability (not much going on in health care policy with the latest Budget)
• pro-fossil fuels (the Libs caved on net-zero, though they have no way of getting there)
• anti-immigration (immigration is at a historic low anyway and Aus' population fell for the first time in 100 years during the pandemic)
• anti-gay/trans (the Libs bungled its religious rights Bill)

But for all of the above, I still don't feel that confident for Labor. The reality is that there are very few swing seats in the Australian electorate. Most seats are very entrenched and will be easily held by the sitting member. That means that the fate of the Government will be sealed by a handful of swingers, whose voting intentions are difficult to parse. 

[karaddin]

Honestly more seats feel in play for independents than the major parties at this point. I expect ZS to hold Warringah and DS looks in trouble in Wentworth. I'm not on top of the Melb electorates but wouldn't be surprised if there was one of two like that there as well.

The north coast seat which contains Lismore has got to be pretty negative on the coalition given how uninterested they have been on serious flood relief but as a historically safe national seat it would still be hard for Labor to take that - it had a big swing to the coalition last election though which means at least that much away should be within the realms of possibility. You'd like to think some of the flood hammered Queensland areas would be thinking likewise.

I still can't get my head around how utterly uninterested Morrison is in helping anyone, even on the slam dunk popular stuff like assistance in natural disasters. He's just so utterly contemptuous of everyone he can't be fucked.

[Paxter]

5 hours ago, karaddin said:

I still can't get my head around how utterly uninterested Morrison is in helping anyone, even on the slam dunk popular stuff like assistance in natural disasters. He's just so utterly contemptuous of everyone he can't be fucked.

The reality is though that most electorates are not that affected by natural disasters, so I don't know if it's enough to swing the result.

ScoMo just plays the numbers. Most of his rhetoric over the next couple of months will be on cost of living and jobs - two issues that are Coalition strong suits and play well with the marginal voter. 

[Jeor]

10 hours ago, Paxter said:

This does feel like the end of a cycle for the Libs.

I agree with this - they've been in power since 2013 and cycled through some PMs. The electorate probably thinks it's time to give Labor a bit of a go, especially in the absence of any unifying policy or grand strategy from the Coalition.

The short-termism and lack of vision is actually annoying from the Coalition. This is the party that gave us the GST, the Future Fund, and real gun control. Yes, they also had some bad policies (Iraq, border protection, workchoices) but you couldn't argue the fact - 20-25 years ago they were actually trying to do something. This current Coalition government does not have a reforming bone in their body and isn't really looking beyond the next 6-12 months and staying in power.

[Paxter]

Good points @Jeor. The Abbott government stood for something (deregulation, protecting the fossil fuel industry, “stop the boats”), the Turnbull government stood for something (progressive social policy, climate change policy) but the ScoMo manifesto is just a blank piece of paper and a tax cut. 

[Jeor]

The blank paper strategy of ScoMo is a cynical tactic designed to make himself a small target and give him flexibility to go after anything unpopular from his opponent. But I think the average Australian voter, while conservative in nature ("don't stuff things up"), also wants to see some progress. 

Reforms I'd like to see would include increasing the GST to address budget revenue sustainability (with offsetting decreases in lower income tax brackets and an increase in the age pension), abolishing franking credits (never going to happen), abolishing negative gearing for more than two investment properties (also never going to happen), and reducing the capital gains tax concession (also never going to happen). And that's just the economic side...and I'm a supposed Liberal voter!

[Skyrazer]

6 minutes ago, Jeor said:

The blank paper strategy of ScoMo is a cynical tactic designed to make himself a small target and give him flexibility to go after anything unpopular from his opponent. But I think the average Australian voter, while conservative in nature ("don't stuff things up"), also wants to see some progress. 

Reforms I'd like to see would include increasing the GST to address budget revenue sustainability (with offsetting decreases in lower income tax brackets and an increase in the age pension), abolishing franking credits (never going to happen), abolishing negative gearing for more than two investment properties (also never going to happen), and reducing the capital gains tax concession (also never going to happen). And that's just the economic side...and I'm a supposed Liberal voter!

Tax reform is just too much of an albatross. Labor were offering some much needed changes in the last election and they got burned badly. They ain't gonna touch it again (atleast not for awhile).

Only way I can see a party push through changes to NG, CGT, FC, etc. is to not announce it coming onto an election, win said election, then slip 'em in early in the term so they have plenty of time to get through the pain before the next election comes looming.

As it stands now though, I wouldn't expect anything drastic from Labor if they win and it'll never happen under the Libs.

[Impmk2]

I would've liked some concrete energy policy.

I know neither side will really make big annoucements it because of Queensland marginals where it'll play badly, but ffs we need to modernise the grid. We have one of the largest per capita solar uptakes in the world, if we could subsidise some storage for all that energy it'd massively help with grid stability. Building new / prolonging the life of traditional power plants made zero sense from an economic perspective 5 years ago let alone now (and that's not even bringing the environment into it). There's a big opportunity for local battery manufacturing to go along with the resource extraction.

Could also go on a massive rant about EV infrastructure. The automotive industry is putting all its R&D eggs in the EV basket. There's a reason Tesla is now the highest valued car company in the world. We need to get the charging infrastructure in place fast or we're going to be terribly positioned. Europe and even the US are streets ahead of us here.

[Paxter]

The ScoMo racism row amuses me. I mean, the guy was Immigration Minister at the peak of “Stop the Boats”, so we already know he’s a fucktard. 

ETA: Polls are already starting to tighten. Good luck, Albo. You’re going to need it.

[Jeor]

Yes, there was an article in the AFR or SMH that was detailing the branch stacking that went on to get a hard-right candidate in 2007 into a safe federal seat (ScoMo was the compromise candidate who eventually won preselection - sound familiar) and that's supposedly how the enmity between Senator FW started.

On 4/1/2022 at 2:25 PM, Impmk2 said:

I would've liked some concrete energy policy.

Good call on energy policy. The grid needs an upgrade to deal with all the household  solar generation, supposedly AGL and Origin are going to build big batteries but the government should be leading, not private business. I also think we need an onshore strategic oil reserve instead of borrowing from the USA. I don't doubt that the US is a reliable ally and will honour any commitments (and that it's more cost effective to outsource), but given our geographic location and possibility of blockades etc I'd rest easier knowing we had access to our own reserves and refining capabilities. Not even war, but a global oil shock etc could be problematic.

3 hours ago, Paxter said:

ETA: Polls are already starting to tighten. Good luck, Albo. You’re going to need it.

I think Labor have a good chance here. ScoMo is damaged goods and it's a late cycle, do-nothing Coalition. Albo has stayed disciplined. Neither side are likely to win in a landslide, and while tight polling might ordinarily favour the incumbent, I don't think it's such an issue here.

[Paxter]

2/2 of the last Tassie Premiers (both fairly popular) have now exited politics due to the workload and family pressures.

It is pretty tough to attract and retain talent in the political arena. 

[Skyrazer]

Election called for 21 May.

Not surprised at all that it's been left to as late as possible.

Totally looking forward to being bombarded by Clive Palmer's mug and UAP ads for the next month .

[Impmk2]

Yep it's going to be a long 6 weeks.

[Jeor]

Media are jumping all over Albo's "gaffe" of not knowing the RBA cash rate or the national unemployment rate. Gotcha questions like that are annoying but it was surprising he didn't know them. It will play right into the hands of the Coalition who have been keen to portray Labor as being inexperienced with the economy.

It happened on the first day of the campaign so Albo has plenty of time to get it back on track. I doubt the voting public really care whether he knows a particular figure or not, but I think the damage is more that it emboldens the Coalition rather than anything else.

[Paxter]

I think some early (and not really surprising in my view) mistakes from Albo could do quite a bit of damage. He's not known to be a strong campaigner and this is his first rodeo as the top dog. 

I don't buy in to the narrative that this is Labor's election to lose, so any decent blows that the Coalition can land could be influential. That's particularly the case in marginal suburban or regional seats where the economy is always the #1 federal issue.

[Skyrazer]

The cash rate is something he should be aware of given how impactful and publicised it is.

Unemployment rate is so fluid and is somewhat meaningless on its own, I wouldn't expect people to know exactly what it is on the day. However, his guess of 5.4% or whatever it was was pretty off the mark and did't look good. I didn't know exactly what it was myself, but I still knew it was around 4-4.5% and quoting something like that would have made him look less uninformed.

[karaddin]

5 hours ago, Paxter said:

I don't buy in to the narrative that this is Labor's election to lose, so any decent blows that the Coalition can land could be influential. That's particularly the case in marginal suburban or regional seats where the economy is always the #1 federal issue.

Yeah I have a healthy distrust of polling which shows the right wing party trailing after the last 5 or 6 years, whether people lie or simply change their minds as the moment of truth arrives it never stays safe right up to the end. That said there should be real, concrete issues hurting the coalition but I won't assume the public will actually be consistent on that.