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Aussies and NZers: Four seasons in one protest


karaddin

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It does kinda suck for the moderate Libs though. Their electorates punished the party for being too conservative, but it's the moderates who end up on the receiving end while the actual conservatives hold on.

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1 hour ago, karaddin said:

That would be like Christmas

Absolutely.

It has narrowed a bit on pre-polls but unfortunately he'll probably be fine when the postals come in, though the seat is yet to be called.

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6 hours ago, Paxter said:

Double post, but now that the dust has settled, I’m quite annoyed that ScoMo stepped down as leader. With Frydenberg likely out of parliament, this really clears the way for Dutton to usher in a particular toxic form of politics.

Well, you can hardly blame ScoMo for going. When you've been the PM, it's hard to stomach another 3 years (at least) in opposition. I can't think of many contemporary party leaders who have stayed on in the immediate aftermath of a lost election, and those that have (Shorten, Abbott) did so after having lost an election as Opposition Leader, not having lost as a sitting PM. 

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5 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

It does kinda suck for the moderate Libs though. Their electorates punished the party for being too conservative, but it's the moderates who end up on the receiving end while the actual conservatives hold on.

Yes, totally agree with this. The moderate Libs have lost their seats because of the hard right faction, which has held onto theirs. Both sides will use the results to fuel completely opposing arguments. The Right faction will say that because their candidates survived, it shows that Dutton etc have the winning formula and the moderates are losers. The moderate faction will obviously say that the hard right Liberal brand which got a national airing (transgender etc) was what lost them their seats. It's pretty obvious with the types of people that captured those lost Liberal seats (Labor, Independents) that the moderate argument is best, but I have a feeling it will be a pretty wild year or two in the Liberal party. Hopefully the moderates get themselves in order before the next election.

On a completely different note, I do have a lot of schadenfreude for Kristina Keneally. Fancy parachuting her into a safe Labor seat in multicultural western Sydney when she lives on the (very white) northern beaches. I'm glad that didn't work out. 

Keneally is one of those people that seems to get a lot of chances in politics. Maybe she is actually a quality operator but in terms of electoral history she is poison (apart from winning her first NSW state seat). She became Premier without contesting an election (party room knifing of Nathan Rees), then lost the ensuing state election in a historic landslde with a 16.5 swing against, then stood as a federal candidate for Bennelong and lost that byelection, then was appointed (without an election) to a Senate seat to fill Sam Dastyari's vacancy. Following Labor factions refusing to give her a safe Senate seat, she was then parachuted into the safe Labor seat of Fowler which she promptly lost.

So basically twice she gained a significant position of power without being chosen by the electorate (NSW Premier, federal Senator) and the three times she actually went to the polls she lost (NSW Premier, federal Bennelong and federal Fowler). How she rose to become deputy Leader of the Senate and one of the key voices in Cabinet and Albo's senior leadership team is beyond me.

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6 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

It does kinda suck for the moderate Libs though. Their electorates punished the party for being too conservative, but it's the moderates who end up on the receiving end while the actual conservatives hold on.

It's probably not the best thing for Australian democracy, but I don't have too much sympathy for the moderate liberals. There was easily a parlimentary majority in favour of broadly popular climate policy. But instead of working a bipartisan bill with Labor on the issue they knifed Turnbull (twice!) and let themselves be held hostage by the minority. In the end it has bitten them hard.

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Now there's apparently whispers that some Lib members want to divorce from the Nats.

No doubt the Nats are a big reason for the devastating loss and continue being stubborn on their stance with climate action. Outside of their own safe electorates, the Nats are generally disliked, especially in the urban electorates and their failure to get with the times is hurting the coalition.

I don't know, we'll see how this seemingly progressive and quite diverse parliament goes over the next 3 years. But if it works out and turns out to be a hit, the Coalition are going to need to overhaul themselves or risk being left behind.

I'm very cautiously optimistic about this latest iteration of our Parliament, but we've never had a makeup like this before so who knows how things will go.

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11 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

It's probably not the best thing for Australian democracy, but I don't have too much sympathy for the moderate liberals. There was easily a parlimentary majority in favour of broadly popular climate policy. But instead of working a bipartisan bill with Labor on the issue they knifed Turnbull (twice!) and let themselves be held hostage by the minority. In the end it has bitten them hard.

I don't know that you could blame the moderate faction for the Liberal leadership issues. The fact they blocked Dutton as PM and ushered ScoMo instead was more a recognition of the fact that the Right had enough votes to knife Turnbull in any case and ScoMo was a compromise candidate acceptable to the Right. Even though he wasn't a card-carrying member of the Right, his strong (and public) religious affiliation meant that he was not a moderate Liberal in the usual sense of the word. Despite them not getting an outright party leader, the Right has generally been the most united (and hence powerful) faction in the Liberal party for years. Turnbull was an aberration and remember he only just defeated Abbott.

7 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

I'm very cautiously optimistic about this latest iteration of our Parliament, but we've never had a makeup like this before so who knows how things will go.

In the aftermath of all this election coverage, I am also cautiously optimistic that we might see some progress out of this Parliament. Labor will install a federal ICAC, and probably instigate more action on climate change and will be pushed by the Greens and Independents to do so. Less certain is their economic management; they've been handed a very tough situation to manage, and in an inflationary environment they won't (or at least shouldn't) spend their way out of trouble. They don't have any big economic ideas but usually Labor governments find some good things to spend money on and they're better for closing inequality than the Coalition. It'll be fixing the budget that will be the problem.

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Maybe not a bad thing that this time the Coalition (and global events) have bequeathed Labor a clusterfuck budget and inflationary environment. It’s pretty much the opposite economic situation to post-Costello 2007. Labor won’t be able to spend their way to re-election and Chalmers will have to focus more on fiscal restraint than Swan et al. 

Labor can still please its base with climate change policy, constitutional reform to implement the Uluru statement and the ICAC.

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Since COVID, I think there simply isn't any fuss anymore around fixing the budget. Pretty much every county around the world went neck-deep into debt to save their economies during the outbreak and any notion of attaining a surplus is so far out, it's off people's minds. Inflation though is proving to be the clincher and is going to be the major economic issue going forward in the immediate-term.

On another note, I hope to god Hanson loses her seat. That'll put the cherry on top of this whole election for me, especially if it's to Legalise Cannabis.

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This particular brand of inflation is going to be very hard to tackle using domestic policies, since a lot of the pressures on inflation are not within the powers of national govts and reserve banks to control. When was the last time we saw inflation shooting up in nearly every advanced economy all at the same time?

It seems our govt might be looking to the new AU govt to lay off on the 501 deportations a bit. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect much in that regard. Deporting "technical" NZers because they are criminals, or associated with criminals / gangs was not, so far as I can tell, a significant reason for the LNP to lose the election. I'm guessing we'd get a "we'll look into it" response and nothing will change at least for the first term of this govt.

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5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 It seems our govt might be looking to the new AU govt to lay off on the 501 deportations a bit. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect much in that regard. Deporting "technical" NZers because they are criminals, or associated with criminals / gangs was not, so far as I can tell, a significant reason for the LNP to lose the election. I'm guessing we'd get a "we'll look into it" response and nothing will change at least for the first term of this govt.

I'm hoping to see a reduction in this as well. It might not have been a major part of the campaign but I also don't think it was really actual government policy. It was Dutton being a spiteful person that loves exercising power and it was kept going after he shifted portfolios but my hope is that Labor won't continue it.

These are Australians whose crimes are run of the mill domestic crimes committed by people that live in this country. People who find themselves in the circumstances which lead to those crimes in the course of their lives in Australia. They should be handled domestically like any other crime.

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11 hours ago, Paxter said:

Maybe not a bad thing that this time the Coalition (and global events) have bequeathed Labor a clusterfuck budget and inflationary environment. It’s pretty much the opposite economic situation to post-Costello 2007. Labor won’t be able to spend their way to re-election and Chalmers will have to focus more on fiscal restraint than Swan et al. 

Labor can still please its base with climate change policy, constitutional reform to implement the Uluru statement and the ICAC.

Totally agree with this. Labor will have to tread pretty carefully with the budget and may end up having to focus on non-monetary wins like ICAC. As much as the latest iteration of the Coalition did not really practice any budget discipline, Labor shouldn't really try to blow it out any further. As hairy as the next 12-24 months are going to be, this could be Chalmers' time to shine and show that Labor can be good economic stewards ala Keating/Hawke. Unfortunately they've already promised the third stage of tax cuts will go through which hamstrings them a bit.

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13 hours ago, Jeor said:

I don't know that you could blame the moderate faction for the Liberal leadership issues. The fact they blocked Dutton as PM and ushered ScoMo instead was more a recognition of the fact that the Right had enough votes to knife Turnbull in any case and ScoMo was a compromise candidate acceptable to the Right. Even though he wasn't a card-carrying member of the Right, his strong (and public) religious affiliation meant that he was not a moderate Liberal in the usual sense of the word. Despite them not getting an outright party leader, the Right has generally been the most united (and hence powerful) faction in the Liberal party for years. Turnbull was an aberration and remember he only just defeated Abbott. 

While the moderate liberals didn't instigate the climate wars, they certainly seemed quite content to sit back and let it be used to whip up division in the electorate.

They needed to be screaming as loudly on the issue(s) as the nationals were in order to differentiate themselves from the hard right - instead they took their electorates for granted and paid for it.

The Libs may have still lost this election, but when seats are flipping Liberal to Green they've become pretty amazingly far out of step with the people they're meant to be representing.

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3 hours ago, Jeor said:

Totally agree with this. Labor will have to tread pretty carefully with the budget and may end up having to focus on non-monetary wins like ICAC. As much as the latest iteration of the Coalition did not really practice any budget discipline, Labor shouldn't really try to blow it out any further. As hairy as the next 12-24 months are going to be, this could be Chalmers' time to shine and show that Labor can be good economic stewards ala Keating/Hawke. Unfortunately they've already promised the third stage of tax cuts will go through which hamstrings them a bit.

The NZ govt is trying some inflation alleviation by giving some of the poorer half a modest, temporary boost in benefits. Their PR says the income top up will go to about 2 million people (though that might include kids of parents who are getting the top up, so not sure it's actually 2 million payouts). I don't think it will affect inflation, since these people all spend money on the basics, and where they seek to spend their money is not going to make prices rise.

4 hours ago, karaddin said:

I'm hoping to see a reduction in this as well. It might not have been a major part of the campaign but I also don't think it was really actual government policy. It was Dutton being a spiteful person that loves exercising power and it was kept going after he shifted portfolios but my hope is that Labor won't continue it.

These are Australians whose crimes are run of the mill domestic crimes committed by people that live in this country. People who find themselves in the circumstances which lead to those crimes in the course of their lives in Australia. They should be handled domestically like any other crime.

Has anyone with actual influence demanded it stop? The train is already rolling, it takes an act of will to slow it down or stop it, and better yet, pass a law that at least says if a person moved to Aus when a minor and always lived in Aus since then as a permanent resident they can't be sent "back to where they came from".

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I was going to say unfortunately not, but apparently Jacinda said today that it's at the top of her agenda as beef with the Australian government and will be raised at their first meeting.

You're right that the train is already rolling so it will take something making it more painful to maintain the current status quo than it is to change it, but it's politically much more important to Albo to improve relations with Jacinda (who is very popular with Australian Labor voters, especially women) than it was for ScoMo (neither him nor his voters gave two shots about it) so that might be enough. I think there's very little, if any, advantage among people voting Labor to keeping it going so just enough noise to make it worth doing should be what's needed.

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Dutton looks all but certain to be Liberal leader. I don't think he's the man for the Liberals and would much prefer a moderate, but there was always likely going to be a Dutton leadership at some point and following this loss is probably the best time to get it out of the way, as he may not last until the next election. Maybe he'll be Brendan Nelson 2.0? Hopefully that rather than Abbott 2.0...

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19 hours ago, karaddin said:

I was going to say unfortunately not, but apparently Jacinda said today that it's at the top of her agenda as beef with the Australian government and will be raised at their first meeting.

You're right that the train is already rolling so it will take something making it more painful to maintain the current status quo than it is to change it, but it's politically much more important to Albo to improve relations with Jacinda (who is very popular with Australian Labor voters, especially women) than it was for ScoMo (neither him nor his voters gave two shots about it) so that might be enough. I think there's very little, if any, advantage among people voting Labor to keeping it going so just enough noise to make it worth doing should be what's needed.

That's all well and good, but there might only be a year when there are aligned parties in govt in Australia and NZ. There is a good chance Jacinda won't be PM after the next election, and the affection for Jacinda might turn into disdain towards NZ if Corporate capitalist Chris Luxton and his National Party become govt. So Albo and co may well say nice things to Jacinda, form a working party etc and slow roll on any actual action to see what happens in our 2023 election.

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19 hours ago, Jeor said:

Dutton looks all but certain to be Liberal leader. I don't think he's the man for the Liberals and would much prefer a moderate, but there was always likely going to be a Dutton leadership at some point and following this loss is probably the best time to get it out of the way, as he may not last until the next election. Maybe he'll be Brendan Nelson 2.0? Hopefully that rather than Abbott 2.0...

A shift to the right is always likely after an election loss no matter the leader - it helps to achieve product differentiation and is more aligned to members’ actual beliefs. With no need to do any deals in the Senate or devise any actual policy, the Libs’ impulse for centrism disappears.

Moreover, the Libs may decide it’s a better strategy to go after Labor in the suburbs in 2025 rather than win back inner city seats. These are in any case heading towards Labor-Greens contests on a two-party preferred.

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

A shift to the right is always likely after an election loss no matter the leader - it helps to achieve product differentiation and is more aligned to members’ actual beliefs. With no need to do any deals in the Senate or devise any actual policy, the Libs’ impulse for centrism disappears.

Moreover, the Libs may decide it’s a better strategy to go after Labor in the suburbs in 2025 rather than win back inner city seats. These are in any case heading towards Labor-Greens contests on a two-party preferred.

I just don't see how that's a realistic strategy to get the Libs back into govt. How many of these outer-suburban seats that are swaying conservative are there to make up for the huge deficit this election has left them in? Across the board, we saw swings towards left/progressive candidates and the parliament as a whole has mostly shifted away from hard conservatism. Suburban Qld and Sydney may have some here or there, but Melb, Adelaide and even Perth seem like they have no taste for the current Liberal brand.

If we saw the seats that the Libs lost shifting to more right-wing candidates like UAP/PHON, then I can understand the logic in shifting right. But we saw the opposite occur.

Yes they need to distinguish themselves somehow, but the challenge is going to be doing it in a way that doesn't make them less relevant and from what I can see coming out of this election, shifting further right is not going to get them very far or even set them backwards.

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