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Aussies and NZers: Four seasons in one protest


karaddin
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Labor minority looks the most likely option right now.

Can't see Teal working with the coalition due to nats climate change position. And Labor looks to be getting more seats anyway.

Just now, The Anti-Targ said:

So there isn't a meaningful 3rd or 4th party, it's mostly independents who make up the balance?

There might be a couple Greens in the house who could get Labor over the line. But it's most likely going to need the support of the Teal independents too - they're running on an economically conservative but also strong on climate change and socially liberal platform.

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8 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So there isn't a meaningful 3rd or 4th party, it's mostly independents who make up the balance?

Correct. The Greens would make the argument for being a third party, but they've never had quite enough seats in the House of Representatives to make it count. The Democrats were another minor party that had a little bit of sway from time to time but they're history now.

In Australia, the vagaries of the voting process generally limit the minor parties to Senate seats (which are based on proportion of votes won across the state). To win a seat in the HoR they have to outright win an individual electorate and usually Labor/Liberal/Nationals will take those.

The upshot of this is that a minor party can really only amend legislation (the Senate's role) but cannot introduce new legislation or budgetary motions (the HoR role). Government is formed in the lower house and generally the Senate, which has a big crossbench, then acts as the supposed check and balance on the government and lots of wheeling and dealing gets done.

At this stage, certainly looks like ScoMo has lost but not in the bag that Albo has won. A very tasty possibility that if ScoMo resigns, Frydenberg and Dutton lose their seats, and with Porter and Hunt retiring, there will be quite a vacuum of experienced leaders on the Liberal frontbench. Who would then be the leader if not ScoMo/Frydenberg/Dutton? Probably Payne, Taylor or Fletcher? Birmingham is in the Senate so he can't do it.

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Yes, certainly looks like the Coalition have lost. 

Labor will win - either outright, or eventually through minority government, but looking likely that they might just squeak in on their own.

I must admit to very mixed feelings about PM Albo. When I think of people like Keating, Howard, Turnbull (PMs I liked)...and then even PMs I didn't like, such as Rudd, Gillard, Abbott, even ScoMo...the little we've seen of Albo so far doesn't fill me with confidence that he has the skills and strength required. One can hope that the rest of the Labor frontbench is strong - Chalmers supposedly quite a good Treasurer.

Kristina Keneally in trouble - Labor made a big mistake importing her into a multicultural seat. That will be a blow to the current senior Labor leadership.

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1 hour ago, Jeor said:

At this stage, certainly looks like ScoMo has lost but not in the bag that Albo has won. A very tasty possibility that if ScoMo resigns, Frydenberg and Dutton lose their seats, and with Porter and Hunt retiring, there will be quite a vacuum of experienced leaders on the Liberal frontbench. Who would then be the leader if not ScoMo/Frydenberg/Dutton? Probably Payne, Taylor or Fletcher? Birmingham is in the Senate so he can't do it.

Looks like Dutton will retain his seat and become leader....which doesn't bode all that well for the Libs to be honest.

He's not very liked amongst the electorate. Libs really need a moderate leader and Dutton is pretty hard-right.

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I look forward to The Juice Media's honest govt ads for the new govt. We'll see how much different Labour are from LNP when we see the tone of those ads. Clearly they are a left outfit, but I expect them to call out Labour BS on climate change if they don't substantially change course from what the LNP has been doing (or not doing) the whole time they've been in power. And it will be interesting to see what else Labour does to fail the progressive agenda.

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10 minutes ago, Skyrazer said:

Looks like Dutton will retain his seat and become leader....which doesn't bode all that well for the Libs to be honest.

He's not very liked amongst the electorate. Libs really need a moderate leader and Dutton is pretty hard-right.

Yes, unfortunately it's the moderate Libs who have been wiped out (which kind of makes sense, in that the hard-right Libs are the ones who have a firmer hold on their electorates when the going gets tough).

If it is Dutton, then I think it's likely to play out as a Tony Abbott 2.0 situation. He'll probably be good at skewering Albanese and score points as Opposition Leader, but would be a hopeless actual PM.

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5 minutes ago, Jeor said:

If it is Dutton, then I think it's likely to play out as a Tony Abbott 2.0 situation. He'll probably be good at skewering Albanese and score points as Opposition Leader, but would be a hopeless actual PM.

There issue is Dutton is even more toxic than Morrison (or even Abbott) in the seats they just lost. Can't see him being a winning formula.

Good to see neither the UAP or One Nation play a big role in this election.  Clive spent millions on nothing.

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1 minute ago, Impmk2 said:

There issue is Dutton is even more toxic than Morrison (or even Abbott) in the seats they just lost. Can't see him being a winning formula.

Good to see neither the UAP or One Nation play a big role in this election.  Clive spent millions on nothing.

The problem is that Dutton will be elected leader all the same - his hand is strengthened by the losses of moderates from the Liberal caucus. 

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1 minute ago, Impmk2 said:

There issue is Dutton is even more toxic than Morrison (or even Abbott) in the seats they just lost. Can't see him being a winning formula.

Good to see neither the UAP or One Nation play a big role in this election.  Clive spent millions on nothing.

Yeah, I struggle to see Dutton being a popular leader and he will take the party further to the right, which is unlikely to win back support lost to the Teals.

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Posted (edited)

The result is close to what I expected and hoped for in most of the country, a strong showing from teal independents taking what was coalition heartland with a minority Labor government. Greens outperformed my expectations in Brisbane and definitely didn't see the huge swing in WA coming which is what may gift a majority to Labor.

Very happy with Kenneally losing, both as a "don't parachute high profile candidates in over local candidates" message but also because it means her awfulness won't be in the ministry.

Also pretty happy with the country giving a pretty firm rejection to transphobic culture wars. It attracted a lot of media attention but it didn't accomplish any of what ScoMo hoped and they sacrificed any hope of regaining what was a blue ribbon seat probably for the foreseeable future.

ETA: On the 3rd party front Jeor is spot on for how things have been in the HoR, although that may be starting to change now. Worth noting that the Greens numbers in the senate are much more significant however and genuinely sufficient to be an independent 3rd party negotiating to be part of the process of governing. I think the days of an outright majority in the senate are gone for good

Edited by karaddin
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Labor majority looks on - go WA! My seat of Hasluck is flipping.

Clever campaign by Labor to focus on the west while allowing independents to continue picking off the Libs in the major cities. 

As we have said before, this did feel like the end of the cycle for the LNP anyway (three PMs since 2013), but Labor win so rarely that Albo will be hailed as a messiah.

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5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I see Labour is 4 seats from a majority. Are there four of the remaining seats likely to go to Labour?

 

4 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Currently showing 6 of the remaining seats with Labour ahead

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Posted (edited)

Yep pre-election day votes seem to be coming in very strong for Labor. Outright majority probable. 

Also looking possible there's a Labor/ Greens senate majority. That would make passing the election promises on climate,  childcare, aged care far easier.

Dutton may still be in trouble...

Edited by Impmk2
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Posted (edited)

Pretty crazy that QLD could be handing the Greens as many as three precious lower house seats. 

Just demonstrates how much Australia is changing - I can't make lazy assumptions around what is a safe seat anymore. 

Ultimately Australia could start resembling Canada more, with the left leaning vote split more evenly between a centre-left party and a left party. 

Edited by Paxter
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Double post, but now that the dust has settled, I’m quite annoyed that ScoMo stepped down as leader. With Frydenberg likely out of parliament, this really clears the way for Dutton to usher in a particular toxic form of politics.

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