NFL Offseason 2022 - The Slog of Slogs!

[DMC]

4 hours ago, Rhom said:

I know this is mainly just Lynch using Schefter as a mouthpiece to drive up Jimmy’s value by acting like they may keep him… but it confirms my own paranoia about Lance being ready.  So it makes me nervous.

Yeah I got no problem Schefter potentially driving up the price, not really worried about it.  Even if he wasn't ready last year (and he looked pretty close in the Texans game, at least the second half) he still should be after a full offseason.  I mean, I've also seen reports they almost started Lance in game 17.  If he's not ready next year, that's Shanahan's failure in development.

[Rhom]

5 hours ago, DMC said:

  If he's not ready next year, that's Shanahan's failure in development.

Or maybe he's just not good?   

And in unrelated news, I've been reading stories that Aikman's proposed Monday Night Football deal could approach nine figures.   

First off, Romo is a million times better than Aikman.

Second off, is anyone NOT watching Monday Night Football if they just keep the guys they have?  Hell, people were watching MNF when they had Dennis Miller in the booth.  Now, I've watched some football with less than stellar commentators, so I'm not saying they can just put anyone in there... but you will never convince me that having Aikman is worth almost $20m in additional advertising revenue/viewership.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Rhom said:

Or maybe he's just not good?   

Well yeah that's possible of course, I'm just saying Shanahan will have had plenty of time to get him ready by September, in spite of Lance's lack of experience/quality competition in college.

[dbunting]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Or maybe he's just not good?   

And in unrelated news, I've been reading stories that Aikman's proposed Monday Night Football deal could approach nine figures.   

First off, Romo is a million times better than Aikman.

Second off, is anyone NOT watching Monday Night Football if they just keep the guys they have?  Hell, people were watching MNF when they had Dennis Miller in the booth.  Now, I've watched some football with less than stellar commentators, so I'm not saying they can just put anyone in there... but you will never convince me that having Aikman is worth almost $20m in additional advertising revenue/viewership.

First off good for him, get all the money he can. Secondly, as long as the announcer doesn't distract me from the game with idiotic comments then I really don't care who is in the booth.

[Rhom]

5 hours ago, DMC said:

Well yeah that's possible of course, I'm just saying Shanahan will have had plenty of time to get him ready by September, in spite of Lance's lack of experience/quality competition in college.

Keyshawn Johnson this morning said its becoming possible that the Niners might not trade Jimmy... so now I feel much better that we will trade him.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Keyshawn Johnson this morning said its becoming possible that the Niners might not trade Jimmy... so now I feel much better that we will trade him.

LOL.  ShanaLynch really have no excuse for not trading Garoppolo.  If they don't think Lance will be ready next season - for whatever reason - then they shouldn't have given up two first rounders to get him in the first place.

[Rhom]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

LOL.  ShanaLynch really have no excuse for not trading Garoppolo.  If they don't think Lance will be ready next season - for whatever reason - then they shouldn't have given up two first rounders to get him in the first place.

Nope.  Only reason to go after a young QB high in the draft is to maximize the cheap rookie deal.  If he's not ready to play until year four... then you didn't get anything for it.

[Rhom]

 

 

[Rhom]

That tweet was so tall, I couldn't see if I was actually typing anything about it! 

That is absolutely nuts though.  Their GM has his work cut out for him.

[dbunting]

6 hours ago, Rhom said:

That tweet was so tall, I couldn't see if I was actually typing anything about it! 

That is absolutely nuts though.  Their GM has his work cut out for him.

Yep, and that is the Rams future as well. Difference is that the Rams have no 1st rd pick talent in the near future.

[Rhom]

1 minute ago, dbunting said:

Yep, and that is the Rams future as well. Difference is that the Rams have no 1st rd pick talent in the near future.

I assume we all think that it was an acceptable trade off for both?  They managed to get one title each.  About the same as Seattle managed to do before rising salaries decimated their roster.  I foresee KC's future to mirror Seattle quite closely.

[unJon]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

I assume we all think that it was an acceptable trade off for both?  They managed to get one title each.  About the same as Seattle managed to do before rising salaries decimated their roster.  I foresee KC's future to mirror Seattle quite closely.

To me, this is the part that the NFL does better than other sports. The equalizer of the salary cap giving fans of each team reason to continue hoping their team will have a chance soon. 

[briantw]

8 hours ago, Rhom said:

 

 

Based on target share, Chris Godwin is the WR1 in Tampa, not the WR2.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, unJon said:

To me, this is the part that the NFL does better than other sports. The equalizer of the salary cap giving fans of each team reason to continue hoping their team will have a chance soon. 

Yes, and it is interesting that so many great qbs (except Tom Brady) have so few sb rings.  A great quarterback can basically ensure that you make the playoffs and are a contender for a decade or more (see Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Brees).  But all of those guys so far have won exactly one SB each, and in every case it was relatively early in their tenure with their respective teams.  Is this just a weird coincidence?  Or is it that having a great qb who eats up a lot of the salary caps ensures that you get close, but not quite close enough to win a ring?  I think it's some of both.  Stafford isn't in that tier, but he still won a ring while being paid handsomely.  Brady was well paid in Tampa. 

To me it seems hard to believe that the reason Rodgers, Wilson and Brees couldn't repeat is because they earned too much money.  If you look at a team like Minnesota with Cousins, yes.  Paying a guy top dollar to be the 10 or 12th best quarterback in the league doesn't work, because Rodgers and Brees will always outplay him and are paid the same.  But to me it still feels like a weird small sample size problem.  The Seahawks were FO's #1 rated team in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.  They weren't quite seasoned enough in 2012, they were a Lynch run away from winning in 2014 and they had an inexplicably bad half against Carolina in 2015 and were not quite able to claw their way back.  Better luck/coaching/whater could have won KC another SB (either 2019 or this year).  Rodgers...I don't know why the Packers always overachieve in the regular season and then turn into a pumpkin in the playoffs.  FO for many years has rated the Packers are not that great, but they keep going 13-3 or something.  Then the playoffs happen and it's like "oh yeah, this team isn't that great."  Rodgers has been merely pretty good in the playoffs for a decade now, which definitely isn't enough for GB. 

I feel like I'm going in circles, but it's interesting, and definitely contributes to the NFL's popularity that a team like the Eagles and Bengals can put together a great year and go on a surprise SB run. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Rhom said:

I assume we all think that it was an acceptable trade off for both?  They managed to get one title each.  About the same as Seattle managed to do before rising salaries decimated their roster.  I foresee KC's future to mirror Seattle quite closely.

I have to disagree. Seattle’s identity over that period was an elite D. Once the LoB broke up they never really found another one other than “Well, at least we have a top 5ish QB.” The Chiefs have an identity and that’s going to stay the same until Mahomes begins to decline. They’ll be able to otherwise change out parts around him on offense and all they ever need their defense to be is just competent. The Chiefs should be one of the top teams in the AFC for a long time to come.

[dbunting]

37 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I have to disagree. Seattle’s identity over that period was an elite D. Once the LoB broke up they never really found another one other than “Well, at least we have a top 5ish QB.” The Chiefs have an identity and that’s going to stay the same until Mahomes begins to decline. They’ll be able to otherwise change out parts around him on offense and all they ever need their defense to be is just competent. The Chiefs should be one of the top teams in the AFC for a long time to come.

I agree with most of this but the underlined is easier to say than it is to do. Good luck finding another Kelce and Hill.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

41 minutes ago, dbunting said:

I agree with most of this but the underlined is easier to say than it is to do. Good luck finding another Kelce and Hill.

They were third and fifth round picks respectively, so it's not like they need two top 10 picks. With good scouting and coaching they can replace a lot of their production though it will look different, and they need to start grooming Kelce's heir as he's starting to get up there in age.

[briantw]

37 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

They were third and fifth round picks respectively, so it's not like they need two top 10 picks. With good scouting and coaching they can replace a lot of their production though it will look different, and they need to start grooming Kelce's heir as he's starting to get up there in age.

The guy who drafted them, and Mahomes, though, is no longer with the organization, and the Chiefs' recent string of draft blunders don't exactly inspire confidence.  This is the organization that took Mecole Hardman over DK Metcalf and CEH over Jonathan Taylor (or Swift/Dobbins), both of which were baffling moves at the time and only look worse in hindsight.

Like, they took Clyde Edwards-Helaire, an undersized, slow RB who had one good year in college, over Jonathan Taylor, one of the most productive college RBs of all time and a near Saquon Barkley level athlete.  Taylor is the only guy in the top ten all time for college yards who was an early declare, and he had more rushing yards in each of his three seasons at Wisconsin than CEH had all-purpose yards in his best and only good season at LSU.

Now, Taylor was in the MVP discussion this year while CEH was getting benched for Jerrick McKinnon.

[dbunting]

49 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

They were third and fifth round picks respectively, so it's not like they need two top 10 picks. With good scouting and coaching they can replace a lot of their production though it will look different, and they need to start grooming Kelce's heir as he's starting to get up there in age.

If it was that easy then every draft for KC would be amazing. Drafting and hitting the lottery with a few late picks is the one thing that can separate a good team from the pack though, but that's a crap shoot.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, briantw said:

The guy who drafted them, and Mahomes, though, is no longer with the organization, and the Chiefs' recent string of draft blunders don't exactly inspire confidence.  This is the organization that took Mecole Hardman over DK Metcalf and CEH over Jonathan Taylor (or Swift/Dobbins), both of which were baffling moves at the time and only look worse in hindsight.

Like, they took Clyde Edwards-Helaire, an undersized, slow RB who had one good year in college, over Jonathan Taylor, one of the most productive college RBs of all time and a near Saquon Barkley level athlete.  Taylor is the only guy in the top ten all time for college yards who was an early declare, and he had more rushing yards in each of his three seasons at Wisconsin than CEH had all-purpose yards in his best and only good season at LSU.

Now, Taylor was in the MVP discussion this year while CEH was getting benched for Jerrick McKinnon.

Eh, everyone has misses though. Metcalf was passed over twice by almost every team and personally I'd be worried about drafting WI RBs as they all seem to flame out after a few years, if they ever are even able to establish themselves. The key is they have the best QB so far of this generation and solid organizational infrastructure in place. They won't be able to replace everyone in a year or two stretch, but they can reload every few years and they should be fine on offense. 

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

If it was that easy then every draft for KC would be amazing. Drafting and hitting the lottery with a few late picks is the one thing that can separate a good team from the pack though, but that's a crap shoot.

I mean you could say that about every team. Point is their room for error is greater than everyone else because they have the most important thing solved.