COVID 46 - Please disperse, nothing to see here!

[Week]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/omicron-wave-was-brutal-on-kids-hospitalization-rates-4x-higher-than-deltas/

Quote

Despite being widely seen as mild, the omicron coronavirus variant has been brutal on children and adolescents—particularly babies and toddlers, who are still ineligible for vaccination.

According to a study published Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the peak rate of pediatric hospitalizations during the recent omicron surge was four times higher than the peak seen during delta's wave last fall. And the largest increase was seen in children ages 0 to 4, who had a peak hospitalization rate five times higher than that seen amid delta's wave.

The study authors, led by CDC emergency response team researcher Kristin Marks, were careful to note that incidental cases of COVID-19 in hospitalized children do not account for the jump in rates amid omicron. Marks and colleagues looked carefully at medical charts from hospitalized children during both the delta and omicron waves. They compared the proportions of children coming into hospitals who had COVID-19-related symptoms at admission and were marked as being admitted specifically for COVID-19. Between the two waves, they found no significant differences in those proportions.

Specifically, during the delta wave, about 88 percent of children entering the hospital had COVID-19-related symptoms, compared with 87 percent during the omicron wave. And about 81 percent of hospitalized children were admitted primarily for COVID-19, compared with about 82 percent during the omicron wave.

"Consistent with national hospital surveillance data, the findings in this report indicate that the omicron-predominant period had higher rates of pediatric COVID-19 hospitalizations than the Delta-predominant period," Marks and her colleagues concluded.

[...]

Vaccination appeared to strongly protect against pediatric hospitalizations, but vaccine availability was limited across the study. The only age group that was eligible for vaccination throughout the whole study was the 12- to 17-year-olds. Based on December data, hospitalization rates among unvaccinated adolescents were six times higher than among fully vaccinated adolescents in that same age group.

 

[Zorral]

Edited to add -- Good subject line choice!

 

I have seen it stated many times in many places that for the vaccinated of all groups, from least to most vulnerable, if infected, omicron tends to manifest more mildly.  But for those unvaccinated it is just as brutal in the most vulnerable groups, and frequently very brutal too in those who have been considered less vulnerable due to age.

The lesson over and over is that being vaccinated is of great benefit to anyone who contracted omicron.  The three brother owners of my local wine store, all three got it, via the wife of one of them, who is a school teacher, over Christmas.  They all got tested right before the Great Christmas Eve Family Dinner, including relatives coming down from upstate -- and all turned up positive, so they canceled the dinner.  All of three of the brothers and their wives came down with covid then, within a couple of days, and were sick for about 3-4 days -- they didn't even open the store -- for the first time ever -- over New Year's.  They all gave thanks all day every day for the vaccines and for being vaccinated.  They all were sick, but not very sick.  They all three and their wives believe it would have very different for them if they hadn't been vaccinated.

Anecdotal only, but even now, when the occasional customer comes in -- and one must be masked, even now, to enter the place -- who says that vaccines are bad or useless -- they actually will confront and disagree, which is entirely against their wine and spirit purveyers' business model of bonhomie with all customers I have been witnessing for all the years of buying wine from them.

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

Very fitting title for me as our government just announced a freedom day in March.

Completely expected and most likely a setup for elections.

The regional government of Vienna said nope to that though and we will have vastly different rules in different parts of the country again.

Leaks to the media suggest that the vaccine mandate will be put on hold too. That would not surprise me at all.

[Fragile Bird]

Well, well. My brother and I were just at Walmart and they were handing out boxes of tests, 1 per family, 5 tests.

[Zorral]

Why the USA has over a million people -- at least -- who have died of covid and still isn't vaccinating and boosting the most vulnerable populations throughout the country.  (Now, here fully vaccinated is defined as "Boosted."

 

https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2022/02/the-deadly-lies-of-the-american-right-wing

[Padraig]

So the Merck anti-viral is running into difficulty getting approval in the EU.  The results from the clinical trials have been mixed and pale in comparison to Pfizer, which has been approved.  In the US, the approval in December (IIRC) was almost grudging too.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/merck-struggles-to-win-european-approval-for-covid-antiviral-pill-1.4803949

I'll be curious to see real life results.  The biggest issue with Pfizer is supply but that seems to be improving in the US.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-16/-game-changer-pfizer-pill-easier-to-get-as-omicron-fades-away

And that article mentions that a new monoclonal antibody from Eli Lilly & Co has been approved.  Helps given the failure of other monoclonals to fight Omicron.

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Why the USA has over a million people -- at least -- who have died of covid and still isn't vaccinating and boosting the most vulnerable populations throughout the country.  (Now, here fully vaccinated is defined as "Boosted."

 

A report I found on the internet said that about 43 percent of the fully vaccinated according to the CDC's information (they defined fully by the two shots, FYI) had the booster (the information was for Feb 15). Here's the link: https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/pharmacy/states-ranked-by-booster-rates.html

But then, that only counts the boosted people, and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people just thought that two shots was good enough. Plus, isn't the booster only technically "recommended?" It's not like you can drag someone into a clinic and force them to get the shot. 

[The Anti-Targ]

1543 cases today. That's the same number of total cases that we had in the first 6 months of the pandemic. Our reaction to 1500+ cases in one day now is mostly a collective shoulder shrug, because widespread vaccination and boosting (and ongoing mask mandates) has largely eliminated significant danger and thus reduced fear and anxiety among most people. And government communication has done a good job at preparing people for increasing cases with little to worry about. No omicron deaths so far, and still no omicron ICU admissions. Hospitalisation is going up, so I expect ICU admissions and, regrettably deaths to follow at some point. Maybe when there are daily deaths being reported people's level of anxiety will start to go up again. The narrative of omicron only being mild is being reinforced in people's minds by having a day with 1500 cases and still no deaths being reported. people are forgetting (or never realised) that any deaths from today's 1500 cases is likely a week or more away.

[Zorral]

16 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Our reaction to 1500+ cases in one day now is mostly a collective shoulder shrug,

Same as in Israel, and for all the same reasons, including full vaccination, which since so many in the US aren't, our deaths continue in large numbers.

The CEO of Moderna today says his - her? -- sense is that there's an 80% chance we are moving into the end of pandemic condition with covid.  I so hope this is true. These last 13 weeks have been among the most dark, cold and despairing months I've gone through, and that's saying something, different, for Reasons, from the dark, cold, depressing months of March - May/June of 2020.

[Paxter]

On 2/16/2022 at 2:14 PM, Fragile Bird said:

Well, well. My brother and I were just at Walmart and they were handing out boxes of tests, 1 per family, 5 tests.

I still haven’t managed to track down a rapid test this year :(. There’s nothing downtown that I can find.

[Paxter]

19 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

1543 cases today. That's the same number of total cases that we had in the first 6 months of the pandemic. Our reaction to 1500+ cases in one day now is mostly a collective shoulder shrug, because widespread vaccination and boosting (and ongoing mask mandates) has largely eliminated significant danger and thus reduced fear and anxiety among most people. And government communication has done a good job at preparing people for increasing cases with little to worry about. No omicron deaths so far, and still no omicron ICU admissions. Hospitalisation is going up, so I expect ICU admissions and, regrettably deaths to follow at some point. Maybe when there are daily deaths being reported people's level of anxiety will start to go up again. The narrative of omicron only being mild is being reinforced in people's minds by having a day with 1500 cases and still no deaths being reported. people are forgetting (or never realised) that any deaths from today's 1500 cases is likely a week or more away.

Deaths are running around 50-100 per day in Australia, so you can count on that happening in NZ too (adjusted for population). Long Covid is also happening at a decent but uncounted rate.

[The Anti-Targ]

Long COVID will be the gift that keeps on giving all throughout the endemic phase of this disease, which may well be a permanent phase, so not really a phase at all. Endemic state seems like better phrasing.

A poll here has apparently found that 30% of people support the anti-mandate protest, though it did not ask people why they support or oppose. Also the poll asked people if they support or oppose the current mandates and only 28% said they oppose. It seems a little odd that a poll asking the same people these two questions would have a higher number supporting the protest than opposing mandates. Given 95% of people who are in the polling age range have at least one vaccination, and 94% are double jabbed, that is a large proportion of double vaccinated people supporting the protest and opposing mandates.

Among the 95% there will be people who only got vaccinated to keep their job or to be able to go out and do stuff, so there is likely to be resentment. If we say mandates work, then there will be a non-negligible % of vaccinated people who felt they got vaccinated under duress and were not really happy to do it. Then of course there will be a percentage of people who support the protest motivated by political preferences. If a different party was in govt then they would not support the protests. Of course some people opposing the protest will be doing it for political reasons too.

A political party (or group of parties) doesn't need 60+ percent of people to win an election, It/they don't even need 50%+1 even in a PR system. So while 30% is a substantial number of people it can usually be ignored by those in power. The thing a govt needs to watch is which way the wind is blowing because if it's going to be 32% next week, then 40% next month they will need to worry.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

I still haven’t managed to track down a rapid test this year :(. There’s nothing downtown that I can find.

Hey. Try a Walmart!

[The Anti-Targ]

A good article from our local news media about mandates. A pretty good example of what I think of as fair and balanced journalism, pretty rare these days.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/127791413/covid19-are-nzs-vaccine-mandates-justified-in-the-age-of-omicron

Quote

Covid-19: Are NZ's vaccine mandates justified in the age of Omicron?

It is balanced, I think, in that people can come away from the article with different views depending on their perspective, biases and risk appetite. The combination of these things for me is that the mandates, for now, continue to mostly be justified. And perhaps for the next month or 2 even extended to mandating a booster for certain people (health workers, police, teachers).

One data point I think the article has obfuscated on a bit is whether the mandate has actually increased vaccination rates. I think perhaps it's hard to quantify, but I am 100% sure that the mandates have lead to some people getting vaccinated when they otherwise would not have. There are a few people I know personally who would have avoided vaccination (a couple of needle-phobes among them) if it wasn't mandatory. Perhaps now with omicron rolling through they might now get vaccinated, but because the mandate came in a few months back they are now vaccinated and boosted, which offers a lot better protection that rolling up for your first shot last week. So the mandates definitely worked to get people vaccinated, whether it's 0.1%, 1%, or 10%+ I don't think it is easy to determine. 

[Heartofice]

Sure vaccination is extra important in a country with little natural immunity like NZ. One thing that doesn’t tend to get mentioned is why certain countries and groups struggle to get vaccinated.

I suspect a general distrust of authority and ‘the system’ leads to a lot of vaccine hesitancy.

And the inverse is true for counties and communities who feel the system works and is set up for them. 
 

Because of that I wouldn’t have thought countries like NZ would really need a mandate, especially as it was obvious that vaccination was necessary if you ever wanted to open up to the world. So then you question why there was such hardline rhetoric from the government over it. 

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Sure vaccination is extra important in a country with little natural immunity like NZ. One thing that doesn’t tend to get mentioned is why certain countries and groups struggle to get vaccinated.

I suspect a general distrust of authority and ‘the system’ leads to a lot of vaccine hesitancy.

And the inverse is true for counties and communities who feel the system works and is set up for them. 
 

Because of that I wouldn’t have thought countries like NZ would really need a mandate, especially as it was obvious that vaccination was necessary if you ever wanted to open up to the world. So then you question why there was such hardline rhetoric from the government over it. 

We already know this. The best predictors of how well vaccination is accepted (at least in countries that have access to it) is two things - trust in the government and trust in other countrymen. 

NZ probably didn't need a mandate like the US did, but it also probably wasn't particularly an issue for them either. 

[Zorral]

Latest on the 'Stealth Omicron' variant:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

 

[Padraig]

On 2/17/2022 at 10:19 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/explained/127791413/covid19-are-nzs-vaccine-mandates-justified-in-the-age-of-omicron

That is a good article.  Trying to look at the full picture.

On 2/18/2022 at 4:03 PM, Zorral said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/health/ba-2-covid-severity/index.html

Hmm.  A little concerning.  Denmark's fatality rate is at a record high right now.  Partly because it has removed most/all restrictions but stealth Omicron did become the main variant there earlier than most other countries.  And it is only now seeing a decline in cases.  Trends in most other countries are going in the right direction though, so its not having a very obvious effect generally.

[The Anti-Targ]

On 2/18/2022 at 8:38 PM, Kalibuster said:

We already know this. The best predictors of how well vaccination is accepted (at least in countries that have access to it) is two things - trust in the government and trust in other countrymen. 

NZ probably didn't need a mandate like the US did, but it also probably wasn't particularly an issue for them either. 

I think the mandates we had for vaccination were necessary to get us from maybe 80-85% of adults vaxed up to 95% of adults fully vaxed. It has had the desired effect on getting people double vaxed, but there are still that 10%-15% or so of vaxed people who if not subject to mandate would not choose to be vacinated, and I think it's time to mandate boosters for those sectors where the double vax mandate was in effect. The booster has shown to be very effective at reducing infection, severe disease hospitalisation and death. So it is important to get those booster as high as possible while we are on the omicron upswing.

[Heartofice]

4 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I think the mandates we had for vaccination were necessary to get us from maybe 80-85% of adults vaxed up to 95% of adults fully vaxed. It has had the desired effect on getting people double vaxed, but there are still that 10%-15% or so of vaxed people who if not subject to mandate would not choose to be vacinated, and I think it's time to mandate boosters for those sectors where the double vax mandate was in effect. The booster has shown to be very effective at reducing infection, severe disease hospitalisation and death. So it is important to get those booster as high as possible while we are on the omicron upswing.

Why do you think they were necessary? If there was any country in the world where it should be easy to vaccinate people it's new zealand.