COVID 46 - Please disperse, nothing to see here!

[Luzifer's right hand]

2 hours ago, Raja said:

Welp, covid positive today. This is round 2 for me but thankfully it's just a sore throat and a bit of weakness. Hopefully I don't get any residual symptoms after, I had none after the first time around so hopefully that is also the case this time.

Guess I'm watching Dune for the 5th time tonight.

Yeah, we see a lot of this at the front door and unfortunately can't really help more than telling GPs to refer to long covid clinics, and even those do not sound useful for patients from what I've read.

That sucks but I approve of rewatching Dune a lot!

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, Raja said:

Welp, covid positive today. This is round 2 for me but thankfully it's just a sore throat and a bit of weakness. Hopefully I don't get any residual symptoms after, I had none after the first time around so hopefully that is also the case this time

That really and truly sux, sux, sux.  I'm so sorry you're going through this, even if 'mild.'  May you recover very quickly, w/o residual.  

~~~~~~~~~

The second reason to protect the immunocompromised from covid + variants -- many links w/in article at site:

https://slate.com/technology/2022/03/covid-immunocompromised-virus-variants.html

Quote

 

.... But many of the pleas to protect immunocompromised patients have missed a crucial public health point. Shielding them is not only an important matter of health equity and social justice—it is a critical component in efforts to forestall the rise of new coronavirus variants. Put simply, by protecting people with weakened immune systems, we protect all of us.

Variant creation is driven by the amount of replicating virus in existence. Whether an evolutionary offshoot ultimately takes hold is a product of viral fitness, selection pressures, and host susceptibility. This equation explains why the most immunocompromised amongst us are so pivotal for preventing the rise of new mutations. When someone who is severely immunosuppressed is infected with the coronavirus, large loads of the virus can replicate for weeks or even months. And if natural immune responses and therapeutic treatments are unsuccessful, this uncontrolled viral replication can lead to the creation of mutant strains. Because of the high viral loads, the variants can easily spread to other susceptible individuals if enhanced isolation precautions are not strictly followed.

Careful case reports confirm this reality. A case study of a patient with leukemia and an acquired immune deficiency who caught COVID-19 found that she shed the virus for as many as 70 days, and that the virus evolved significantly within her over that time. Similar reports have found evidence of within-host viral evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in transplant recipients and in patients suffering from autoimmune diseases requiring aggressive immunosuppression. Patients on regimens designed to suppress B cells, the cells that produce our natural antibodies, appear to be at especially high risk for long-term infection and the accumulation of viral mutations.

If not used carefully, antiviral and antibody therapies—which many experts believe are even more critical in curing COVID-19 in immunocompromised hosts—risk worsening the problem by exerting evolutionary pressure that selects for resilient strains. Unfortunately few, if any, high-quality studies exist that doctors can use as guidance for maximizing the benefit of these therapies to immunocompromised patients while minimizing public health risk. ....

 

 

[Zorral]

I hope Raja's on the way to recovery, and polishgenius's stamina is returning.

~~~~~~~~~~

The substantial lady hasn't sung yet ... more covid coming to a theater near us?

Quote

 

 . . . No matter how transmissible a variant is, the same precautionary measures — like vaccination, quarantine and isolation, masking, and testing — work to prevent its spread.

If those measures are in effect, transmission slows. If they are dropped, it speeds up. In this light, the current waves in Europe and Asia may have as much to do with policy decisions as they do with the transmissibility of the BA.2 variant.

In Europe, rising cases coincided with the lifting of rules requiring masking and other preventive measures in multiple countries (such as requiring isolation after a positive test, vaccination proof requirements for entering shops, and pre-travel negative test requirements). That suggests the continent’s increase in BA.2 transmission was facilitated at least in part by a drop in protective behaviors, all leading to more infected people mixing socially while contagious. . . . .

 

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2022/3/21/22982960/covid-pandemic-omicron-ba2-wave-different-same

[BigFatCoward]

Grim milestone coming up. US will be at 1m deaths by the end of the week probably. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

Damn a friend who had covid after 3 shots seems to have mild long COVID at least for now. Not as mild as he tells me I suspect because he went to the doctor for it and he usually waits way too long for that when he has a health problem and usually does not mention them either.

Well they pressured him to test himself out of quarantine asap because he is a caretaker at a retirement home and society actually needs him even if the pretend the pandemic is over folks piss on people in such jobs at ever opportunity. I told him to stay on sick leave until he feels 100% but he is too good for this world(same as my mum). I hate the fact that our society exploits people who like taking care of other people.

But bars, party and skiing are what's important right?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Grim milestone coming up. US will be at 1m deaths by the end of the week probably. 

Imagine what it would be without the mandates. 

Still blows my mind that when we hit 100k deaths it was a major headline everywhere and then when we hit 500k it was a fart in the wind. 

[Zorral]

"White House officials say U.S. has exhausted funds to buy potential fourth vaccine dose for all Americans
As a congressional stalemate stretches into its third week, officials warn it will hurt pandemic readiness"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/03/22/funding-fourth-vaccine-doses/

 

[The Anti-Targ]

At present our govt is only looking at a 4th dose for the elderly and vulnerable. They seem to be happy to stick with 3 for the rest of us. I think perhaps govts should think about moving to an annual booster model for everyone over a certain age and promote it as being just like the annual 'flu shot, rather than talking about a 4th booster.

Our govt just announced major relaxations of measures taking effect in early April. Vax mandates removed for teachers, defence force and police. Remain in place for healthcare workers and prison officers. Vax pass also being dumped, this was an effective vax mandate for hospitality workers since vax pass applied to customers and workers. So that means no mandate for hospitality sector. Indoor gathering limits have also been increased. Modelling is predicting we will be off the omicron peak at the start of April. We will also be open to overseas tourists on 12 April. We already have BA2 here so we don't expect to see another omicron wave like some countries seem to have / are having with BA2. But I still wonder if we aren't seeding our worst COVID-19 period ever once winter hits. The govt has suggested it might bring restrictions and mandates back if shit hits the fan, but I think it will be almost impossible to put the genie back in the bottle.

[The Anti-Targ]

Official govt stats on hospitalisation vs vax status. This is for the whole pandemic, but since the number of non-omicron cases and hospitalisations is negligible compared to other variants this is pretty much the omicron picture. 

Quote

Vax?	Hosprate		vs boosted	vs double only
No	3.49%		6.84	5.63
partial	2.50%		4.9	4.03
double	0.62%		1.2	1
boosted	0.51%		1	0.82

Clearly the biggest gain for the health system is getting double vaxed with a slight additional gain with the booster

Deaths by vax status during Omicron is a bit tricky to figure out on public stats since vax status is a moving feast, but I think it's more or less a 3-way tie between no/partial vax, double vax, and boosted as a % of total deaths, not including the deaths that pre-date widely available vaccination. As of now the biggest group among the over 12s is boosted, as the % of the total eligible population that's boosted is 60%, which leaves less than 40% of people only double vaxed, and less than 5% of over 12s single/not vaxed.

Deaths where COVID-19 is the sole cause of death accounts for 22% of reported deaths (as at 184 reported deaths, reported deaths today is now 210).

There have been no deaths reported for those between ages 12-59 that have had a booster shot. There have been deaths reported in every other age/vax status combination.

 

[Zorral]

7 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Official govt stats on hospitalisation vs vax status. This is for the whole pandemic, but since the number of non-omicron cases and hospitalisations is negligible compared to other variants this is pretty much the omicron picture. 

Clearly the biggest gain for the health system is getting double vaxed with a slight additional gain with the booster

Deaths by vax status during Omicron is a bit tricky to figure out on public stats since vax status is a moving feast, but I think it's more or less a 3-way tie between no/partial vax, double vax, and boosted as a % of total deaths, not including the deaths that pre-date widely available vaccination. As of now the biggest group among the over 12s is boosted, as the % of the total eligible population that's boosted is 60%, which leaves less than 40% of people only double vaxed, and less than 5% of over 12s single/not vaxed.

Deaths where COVID-19 is the sole cause of death accounts for 22% of reported deaths (as at 184 reported deaths, reported deaths today is now 210).

There have been no deaths reported for those between ages 12-59 that have had a booster shot. There have been deaths reported in every other age/vax status combination.

 

Careful here -- you will be accused of writing gibberish by those who aren't educated into these terms etc. because if They don't get it, it can't exist, i.e. gibberish.

[Week]

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

I wonder what part COVID-19 plays in the shorter candle life. Needs more in depth investigation. Perhaps when people are shedding the spike proteins that causes a loss of wax integrity and faster burning...But wait, it's only vaxed people who shed the spike proteins, so candles in vaxed homes should burn through faster than in unvaxed homes. We need more science and data on this important question. Why is this not being talked about in the corporate / mainstream media? What are they trying to hide from us? @Week fighting to help shine a light on waxgate.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

7 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I wonder what part COVID-19 plays in the shorter candle life. Needs more in depth investigation. Perhaps when people are shedding the spike proteins that causes a loss of wax integrity and faster burning...But wait, it's only vaxed people who shed the spike proteins, so candles in vaxed homes should burn through faster than in unvaxed homes. We need more science and data on this important question. Why is this not being talked about in the corporate / mainstream media? What are they trying to hide from us? @Week fighting to help shine a light on waxgate.

If you’ve done the research, it’s pretty simple and you know:  anti-vaxx = anti-waxx (vv=w).

If you aren’t vaccinated, you can’t smell the candles. But if you line your nostrils with horse dewormer, and and drink the contents of 5 glow sticks, you’ll be able to detect the weak scent (yankee=non-patriotic weak Americans), and pass the one world government lie detector test Kamala Harris is going to force everyone in the world to take, because the pharma companies want to get rich by aborting your arms.  And then you’ll basically be Luke Skywalker and Walker: Texas Ranger combined and have to help save the world once the pro-wax people’s chips get activated and they force everyone to get gay married.

 

[Zorral]

Imma gonna bet Vigo wrote that in one single go, w/o taking a single breath!  Very good!  

~~~~~~~~~~~

Questioning Covid deaths in Africa.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/health/covid-africa-deaths.html

Quote

 

.... A research team he led found that during Zambia’s Delta wave, 87 percent of bodies in hospital morgues were infected with Covid. “The morgue was full. Nothing else is different — what is different is that we just have very poor data.”

The Economist, which has been tracking excess deaths throughout the pandemic, shows similar rates of death across Africa. Sondre Solstad, who runs the Africa model, said that there had been between one million and 2.9 million excess deaths on the continent during the pandemic.

“It would be beautiful if Africans were spared, but they aren’t,” he said.

But many scientists tracking the pandemic on the ground disagree. It’s not possible that hundreds of thousands or even millions of Covid deaths could have gone unnoticed, they say.

“We have not seen massive burials in Africa. If that had happened, we’d have seen it,” said Dr. Thierno Baldé, who runs the W.H.O.’s Covid emergency response in Africa. ....

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

If you have a lot of excess deaths but not a massive increase in burials...where did the bodies go?

Excess death records must be based on death certificates issued for the period, right? So it's a stat with objective evidence on gross numbers even if not on causes. Regardless of cause a substantial increase in deaths should lead to more burials. 

[Proudfeet]

Would cremations be tracked separately? Or is it not a practice there and can be disregarded?

[Zorral]

7 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

Would cremations be tracked separately? Or is it not a practice there and can be disregarded?

Yes.  Funerals and all the local customs around them in the African cultures with which I am most familiar -- lordessa -- they are enormous, go on for days, even show up a year later.  Look at the ritual customs for coffins alone in some West African cultures.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Oh CDC, never change: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/24/cdc-coding-error-overcount-covid-deaths

Quote

Last week, after reporting from the Guardian on mortality rates among children, the CDC corrected a “coding logic error” that had inadvertently added more than 72,000 Covid deaths of all ages to the data tracker, one of the most publicly accessible sources for Covid data.

There is so much bad data floating around with COVID - I know some of my colleagues like playing around with the data and come up with their own pet models to mimic the curves, but I've never bothered since I always feel queasy about the 'sanctity' of the data.

[Padraig]

On 3/23/2022 at 10:26 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

Excess death records must be based on death certificates issued for the period, right? 

Apparently not.  The NYT article notes that a recent survey by the UN Economic Commission for Africa found that official registraion systems captured only one in three deaths.  So how are they calculating excess death figures?   The article doesn't go into that.

Nature goes into more detail on the Zambia story.

Quote

Seeking answers, Gill and his colleagues in Zambia tested bodies in one of Lusaka’s largest morgues for SARS-CoV-2 over several months in 2020 and 2021. Test positivity was 32% overall — and reached around 90% during the peak of the waves caused by the Beta and Delta variants. Moreover, only 10% of the people whose bodies were found to contain the virus after death had tested positive while still alive. Some had falsely tested negative, but most had never been tested at all.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00842-9

And this bmj article compares death rates across the economic groupings.  It uses data from the Economist (which is referred to in the NYT article). It is lower middle income countries, not low income countries that do worst in that metric (by a considerable margin too).

Quote

It is a myth to believe that high income countries have been harder hit by the pandemic and thus “deserve” to have hoarded the lion’s share of the vaccine supply. Figure 2 shows that estimates of excess deaths per capita have been substantial worldwide, with lower middle income countries—not high income countries—having the highest rates. In terms of share, low and middle income countries currently account for 63% of cumulative reported covid-19 mortality. When under-reporting and other factors are considered, excess mortality estimates suggest this share could be as high as 87%.

https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj-2022-070650

This article does have have a link to another article which goes into the excess model calculator.

Quote

The excess death estimates are the mid-point estimates derived from excess death model of The Economist, which fills data gaps on the basis of a machine-learning algorithm that learns from official excess mortality date, where available, and over 100 other statistical indicators. The indicator is available on a weekly frequency and its values are converted into a smoothed average. For more details on methods and sources, check out the excess mortality entry in the list of background notes below.

We possibly shouldn't expect that the COVID deaths in Africa followed the same wave pattern as in Europe/North America.  So Africa's toll could be smoother and thus less visible (because of a lack of vaccinations, a spread out vaccination policy when vaccinations are available, less restrictions etc).

And i'll throw this article in also (probably not the best written article but the point holds).

Quote

The company behind a COVID-19 vaccine touted as a key tool for the developing world has sent tens of millions of doses to wealthy nations but provided none yet to the United Nations-backed effort to supply poorer countries, a sign that inequity persists in the global response to the pandemic.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-03-24/rich-countries-getting-new-novavax-covid-vaccine-before-poorer-ones

[Padraig]

Double post but Moderna released results from its vaccination trial for those under 6.

Quote

The vaccine was 43.7 per cent effective at preventing infection in children aged six months to two years and 37.5 per cent effective in preventing infection in children aged two to under six — a result that Moderna said was consistent with data from clinical trials in adults.

Pfizer struggled too.  Probably because of Omicron.  It will be interesting to see what happens.  If 40% effective after a month or two.  What happens after 4 months?

On the other hand, for vulnerable kids, it is likely to be much more effective against serious illness, like the adult version.

Pfizer is testing a 3 dose option, which did help the adult version against Omicron.

https://apnews.com/article/moderna-low-dose-vaccine-children-c7702f93e863d74b712791b55e54bdc1

And this is a good article on a 4th dose.

https://www.ft.com/content/3963f1fa-64d7-4c68-9afb-bfba02c26971

Quote

A survey of US adults who had received at least one Covid vaccination found that almost half would either “definitely not” get a booster or only do so if they were required to.

The "good" news about the countries that have been hit worst by the BA2 variant (after been previously hit by the original Omicron variant a few months ago) is that it seems to be sharp and quick.  Switzerland, Netherlands and Austria seem to have peaked after 2 or 3 weeks.  Although data is probably less reliable now.