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US Politics: Putin up with Trump


Ormond

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13 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

As to Trump saying something on the campaign trail - he said he'd be tough on Russia too. So what? I fully expect him to campaign on being super tough on Russia and ensuring that what happened in Ukraine wouldn't obviously happen again. And then...he'll back out of NATO. Putin will tell him to get his troops out of the US or else, and he'll go and do exactly that and exclaim how Ukraine has biolabs, we're not nice guys, they're bad guys and nazis, fake news yadda yadda. 

And what, is Rubio or McConnell going to grow a spine? Is Tucker fucking Carlson? Give me a break. 

Bringing this over here...

While I agree this makes sense in terms of Trump, I think you're very mistaken to generalize it to GOP elites -- and even their voters.  First, congressional republicans have always clearly been uncomfortable with Trump's relationship with Russia.  When he took office, they forced sanctions on Trump despite his objections with votes of 419-3 and 98-2.  Even two years later, when all Trump wanted to do was relax sanctions on three Russian businesses (very light corruption on the Trump scale), 11 GOP Senators joined Democrats' (failed) efforts to block Trump from doing so - including presidential hopefuls Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, and Josh Hawley.  Ted Cruz, of course, pivoted to being as hawkish on Russia as possible the minute Biden was inaugurated.

And this makes sense!  Demonizing Russia and attacking a Democratic president for being weak is classic Republican bread and butter.  And if Not Trump wins the presidency doing so, they have no interest in turning course the way Trump would.  There's certainly no political benefit to it.  So, again, while this makes sense if Trump wins in 2024, it really doesn't if literally anyone else wins.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

congressional republicans have always clearly been uncomfortable with Trump's relationship with Russia

Not enough to impeach him for it.

Believe what They say!

Regard: Putin's announcement of the list of people he's sanctioning from coming to Russia from the US political class -- including not a single reichlican, only Dems.  Revealing again how much Hillary's gotten under his skin, also. Ha!

 

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Didnt want to derail the Ukraine thread, but the 800 million dollar package for defensive measures for Ukraine has some pretty substantial hardware in it. Our defense budget is about 3 orders of magnitude greater than this package though. I have to wonder if there is a more efficient (i.e, lower cost) way to defend ourselves and our allies - namely arm them. Even if we passed 100 such bills we could provide some serious firepower to 100 allies and substantially lower risk of invasion for them. And then for say (pulling number out of my behind) 300 billion dollars have enough aircraft, aircraft carriers, stuff to shoot down ICBMs etc to adequately protect ourselves.

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43 minutes ago, DMC said:

I am.  Have you been listening to what GOP officeholders are saying about Russia?  The GOP Congress is, literally today, trying to out-hawk Biden on Ukraine.  Lindsey Graham won't shut up about assassinating Putin.

What do you think they'll say, what would they have said NOW, if badorangeadehair were sitting there?

Also, what happens w/ their rhetoric if/when USians start to die? (Of course women dying due to the fat old men fingers interfering with women's health, is different, particularly if the women aren't white).

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15 minutes ago, Zorral said:

What do you think they'll say, what would they have said NOW, if badorangeadehair were sitting there?

I mean, if Trump was in the exact situation Biden is in now - inflation and gas prices skyrocketing, Zelenskyy just addressing Congress, etc. - I really don't know how the congressional GOP would react.  I suppose it's an interesting thought experiment but it really doesn't matter.  I already said I, generally, agree with Kal that Trump would proceed in such a way if he wins in 2024.  My point is that only happens if Trump wins in 2024.

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32 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean, if Trump was in the exact situation Biden is in now - inflation and gas prices skyrocketing, Zelenskyy just addressing Congress, etc. - I really don't know how the congressional GOP would react.  I suppose it's an interesting thought experiment but it really doesn't matter.  I already said I, generally, agree with Kal that Trump would proceed in such a way if he wins in 2024.  My point is that only happens if Trump wins in 2024.

Good thing that our current POTUS is so popular and the country is doing great and people hate Trump then

also good that Russia doesn't do anything shady like cyberwarfare, election interference or anything like that

 

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1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

Good thing that our current POTUS is so popular and the country is doing great and people hate Trump then

Well, it's certainly the case that people do still hate Trump.  To a unique degree -- while the country is shifting towards the GOP right now, they aren't when it comes to Trump:

 

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9 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

also good that Russia doesn't do anything shady like cyberwarfare, election interference or anything like that

And I'm deeply curious if these types of actions will be required to stop for any peace agreement to move forward. My guess is no.

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2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

In other news, the Fed increased interest rates by a quarter point, which will not make all that much difference. They do however plan to do this 6 (!) times over the year? Recession is of course a worry for next year but...who knows that this year will bring.

The way I look at this is that there are a LOT of “covenant lite” credit agreements at 6.5x EBITDA out there.  They all have grids and covenants so that their interest rates increase not only as rates rise (though most of those have a LIBOR/SOFR/SOFIA floor that is still higher than where rates will go over the next several raises) but also as their EBITDA margins worsen.  So, it’s the not the rates so much per se (though there may be a little cash flow impact), but honestly inflation and rising labor costs that will hit EBITDA, and move companies up their grids to rates that they cannot sustain…..Think that is a Q4 2022 Q1 2023 issue.

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4 hours ago, DMC said:

I am.  Have you been listening to what GOP officeholders are saying about Russia?  The GOP Congress is, literally today, trying to out-hawk Biden on Ukraine.  Lindsey Graham won't shut up about assassinating Putin.

I' m not saying Graham is one of your guys, but he's certainly not one of ours.  He wants more conflict more spending more kickbacks.  He's like the Sean Hannity of senators.  Feeding the beast.

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

In other news, the Fed increased interest rates by a quarter point, which will not make all that much difference. They do however plan to do this 6 (!) times over the year? Recession is of course a worry for next year but...who knows that this year will bring.

Interest rates went to the mid teens in the early eighties.  I don't think 2% rates would be drastic. 

Cut spending and stop the presses is the best theoretical solution.  Not possible to get majorities of both houses to limit their influence, and really super majorities would be needed.

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6 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I' m not saying Graham is one of your guys, but he's certainly not one of ours.  He wants more conflict more spending more kickbacks.

This is more or less the contemporary Republican manifesto, so he's definitely one of yours.

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The evidence is clear: it’s time to prosecute Donald Trump

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/16/donald-trump-criminal-charges-january-6-capitol-attack

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A 3 March New York Times story asserted that “[b]uilding a criminal case against Mr Trump is very difficult for federal prosecutors ... given the high burden of proof ... [and] questions about Mr Trump’s mental state”.

The clear implication is that justice department leaders may simply be following the path of prudence in hesitating to indict, or even to robustly investigate, Mr Trump. But based on the already public evidence – and there’s undoubtedly lots more that’s not yet public – no vigilant prosecutor would be deterred by the difficulty of convincing a jury about Trump’s state of mind. Full speed ahead is now the only proper course.

The former president is vulnerable to charges of conspiring to defraud the United States, 18 USC §371, and obstructing a congressional proceeding, 18 USC §1512(c)(2).

Regarding §371’s intent requirement, the US supreme court has ruled that conspiracies to defraud the United States include plots entered “for the purpose of impairing, obstructing or defeating the lawful functions of any department of Government” using “deceit, craft or trickery, or ... means that are dishonest”.

The mountain of public evidence would surely lead a jury to reject Trump’s defense that that he honestly believed his own ‘big lie’
The mental state required for §1512 is a “corrupt” intent to obstruct, influence, or impede an official proceeding. In Arthur Andersen v United States, the supreme court said “corrupt” meant “dishonest” or “wrongful, immoral, depraved, or evil”.

The mountain of already public evidence would surely lead a DC jury to reject Trump’s defense that that he honestly believed his own “big lie” that widespread ballot fraud had deprived him of victory, and therefore that his intent was innocent.

 

 

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Biden officials fear "mass migration event" if COVID policies end:

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U.S. intelligence officials are privately bracing for a massive influx of more than 170,000 migrants at the Mexico border if COVID-era policies that allow instant expulsions during the public health emergency are ended, sources with direct knowledge of the discussions tell Axios.

The response under way includes a newly created — and previously unreported — Southwest Border Coordination Center (SBCC), essentially a war room to coordinate an interagency response.

Why it matters: Border officials have used Title 42 more than 1 million times to rapidly expel migrants at the southern border without hearing asylum claims. But the Trump-era order wasn't set up to be permanent, and senior Biden officials are preparing for its end as the virus is brought under control.

It's well passed time for Biden to stop worrying about the backlash to doing the right thing on immigration.  You're not going to win the anti-immigrant voters back.  And news like this isn't going to mobilize them against you any more than they already are.

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52 minutes ago, DMC said:

Biden officials fear "mass migration event" if COVID policies end:

It's well passed time for Biden to stop worrying about the backlash to doing the right thing on immigration.  You're not going to win the anti-immigrant voters back.  And news like this isn't going to mobilize them against you any more than they already are.

It will however potentially move a whole lot of people into that camp that weren't already there. That's a lot of folks coming through. 

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Just now, Kalibuster said:

It will however potentially move a whole lot of people into that camp that weren't already there.

No it won't.  Biden's numbers on immigration have already cratered - and that's because he's losing Democrats.  Ending Title 42 is more popular than Biden, and there's clear evidence doing the right thing should help him shore up his numbers among Dems (at least on immigration) while not losing any more independents on the issue:

Quote

In the NILC-commissioned survey, Trump notched much higher marks with his base on how he handled immigration issues (86 percent positive) than Biden did with his (54 percent approval). 

But the two were closer when it came to independents, with Biden at 19 percent and Trump at 21 percent approval. The group argued that this meant Biden had room to gain ground with his base without alienating independents.

 

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

Biden officials fear "mass migration event" if COVID policies end:

It's well passed time for Biden to stop worrying about the backlash to doing the right thing on immigration.  You're not going to win the anti-immigrant voters back.  And news like this isn't going to mobilize them against you any more than they already are.

Thousands and thousands are Cubans, who have left Cuba thanks to Bolton and orangeade, and Biden due to Menendez placation not rolling their cruel treatment back.  They are not white Cubans, and they are not Batista Cubans, but like just about all of Cubans now, they are anti-Cuban government Cubans, due the kind of repression that they'd never experienced.  Not to mention starvation, of course, deprivation they'd never experienced even in the Special Period.

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33 minutes ago, DMC said:

No it won't.  Biden's numbers on immigration have already cratered - and that's because he's losing Democrats.  Ending Title 42 is more popular than Biden, and there's clear evidence doing the right thing should help him shore up his numbers among Dems (at least on immigration) while not losing any more independents on the issue:

 

I get that's what the surveys say but I don't agree. There is a difference between what people think they want and what will actually happen, and then what they want when events happen. And seeing 200k brown people in detention centers and prisons is not going to actually make his numbers go up, even if that is the result of removing 42. 

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