Ukraine: It’s starting…

[RhaenysBee]

never mind

[Padraig]

While there have been other wars in Europe in my lifetime, this definitely feels different to me.

The consequences are seismic.  People have mentioned that the ultra-nationalists are going to benefit.  And they are.  Putin's argument is the very definition of ultra-nationalism.  I'm sure there will be some on Ukraine's side too.

Its war.  Its going to have a lot of negative results.  People are going to end up supporting and doing a lot of nasty things, even if with cause.

4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

I only pray and hope and wish that this conflict won’t spiral into the Baltic area, Caucasus, or the European countries of the former eastern block. Especially not into NATO territories because then it won’t be global warming and Twitter that destroys us. 

Rhaenys, maybe this isn't a fair question, but what is the general feeling in Hungary regarding this invasion?  Hungary and Poland have had difficult moments with the EU but their governments have very different views on Russia/Putin.  I do wonder how that is reflected on the ground in Hungary?

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

but a ten year ban for example from the IOC and FIFA would send shockwaves through the Russian public.

I mean, I suppose it could increase the Russian public's animus towards the west, sure.

[baxus]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

No, it wouldn’t alter Putin/Russia’s behavior in the short term, and I’m not sure much will, but a ten year ban for example from the IOC and FIFA would send shockwaves through the Russian public.

Sure, hope for that, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This has the potential to create a massive refugee crisis even if the invasion isn’t full scale and that will take ages to resolve.

Listen mate, when we are talking about things like this, please skip me with your patronising act since I have more experience living in societies troubled with war, sanctions etc. than I would ever wish on anyone. Unfortunately my whole generation grew up that way and there are many who've had it worse than I did, but I am still fully aware of what a refugee crisis looks and feels like, having an experience of housing a significant number of my family members and friends who had to flee their homes back in the day, as well as talking to my wife in detail about what her experience with it was like. 

Sit tightly in USA and by all means feel free to engage in theory and philosophy of this matter, but don't let yourself believe for one minute that you can teach me something on this particular subject.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I mean, I suppose it could increase the Russian public's animus towards the west, sure.

Would it increase the Russian Public animus toward Putin?

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Would it increase the Russian Public animus toward Putin?

I don't know, hardly an expert on Russian public opinion.  But I am pretty confident even if it did it wouldn't change Putin's actions in Ukraine.

[baxus]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Would it increase the Russian Public animus toward Putin?

No it wouldn't. With all the media machinery Russian government has in place it would be pretty easy to turn Russian public more against the evil Western countries discriminating against their athletes.

Trust me, I'm talking from experience on this one, having lived through that as well.

[Spockydog]

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Would it increase the Russian Public animus toward Putin?

I think he's reached the stage of his dictatorship where it doesn't really matter what the people think.

[RhaenysBee]

12 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Rhaenys, maybe this isn't a fair question, but what is the general feeling in Hungary regarding this invasion?  Hungary and Poland have had difficult moments with the EU but their governments have very different views on Russia/Putin.  I do wonder how that is reflected on the ground in Hungary?

Fear, worry, sympathy, heartbreak, more fear. Many Hungarian have family and friends in Ukraine, part of which used to belong to Hungary before the world wars. The friends and relatives of these people are being called into the Ukrainian army to fight. Air strikes are happening so near to our border that it’s a natural instinct to wonder just how many days/weeks we have before the conflict spirals across said border, and what we will do then. It’s still winter though mild, people heat with Russian gas. And most of all, we still remember, vividly, in living memory what it’s like to have Russian/USSR tanks on the streets. Contrary to what the liberal media may suggest, Hungary is part of Europe, the EU and NATO. Our government has stated their support for Ukraine and stated to stand as one with the EU and NATO concerning this topic. There was no question, delay, controversy or wondering about this. 
Allow me to add that nobody has anything against Russian citizen as individuals (including sportsmen). We are fully aware that this is none of their fault or doing. I have known every Russian I ever met to be an incredibly kind, friendly, helpful, hospitable person. 

[sologdin]

why they would defend Putin's right-wing autocratic cleptocracy

leftists might offer less a defense of the russian administration for its intrinsic policy preferences than advocacy of its instrumental value to a cause other than the administration's own.  you see ultraleftists for instance want to use rightwing regimes and groups as instruments against the capitalist west, regarding imperialism as the foremost problem.  one trotskyite splitter group wanted to deploy islamist fundamentalists as weapons against the US, kinda like a houellebecq novel but dumber, if that can be imagined.

 

I see your point.  I do.  I’m simply trying to think of anything we can do do put pressure on Russia and Russians to stop this.

scot, i think everyone knows you're in good faith.  likely that is a presumption that should be made general for all regular thread participants.  it allows for a congenial, collegial discussion of a problem that permits mistakes and misjudgments without the threat of excommunication, which i think is OG cancellation. that's also why i don't think we should beat up on people who made wrong predictions about the russian dictatorship's intentions before the invasion.  here's diderot's very sympathetic critique of the problem:

Quote

The defect of letting oneself be carried by the interest of the cause that one is defending beyond the limits of truth is such a general defect that Seneca must sometimes be pardoned for it

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

St. Petersburg… right now.  A friend says they are chanting “We say no to war”:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496870591483330560?s=21

[Fez]

Assuming its true (big if in times like this), this is an interesting wrinkle

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Assuming its true (big if in times like this), this is an interesting wrinkle

 

God I hope this is true! 

[maarsen]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

God I hope this is true! 

If true Putin is about to lose the biggest gamble of his life.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

Assuming its true (big if in times like this), this is an interesting wrinkle

Interesting, but it's hard to believe much of anything about the military situation from Ukrainian (or Russian) sources right now.

I would be delighted to hear that on the ground Russian military capability and resolve is less than we might expect (their track record in Chechnya and Georgia was unimpressive, although they've come a long way since then).  But for the very reason I want to hear that news, I demand additional skepticism from myself, to avoid confirmation bias. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Russian troops are already advancing towards Kyiv, and there have been air assaults on airfields nearby (per the UK Ministry of Defense), so I'd suggest the invasion is well and truly on, regardless of those unconfirmed reports of troops surrendering.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

I mean, I suppose it could increase the Russian public's animus towards the west, sure.

The people who will react that way will react similarly to any punishment the West tries to place on Russia.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, baxus said:

Listen mate, when we are talking about things like this, please skip me with your patronising act since I have more experience living in societies troubled with war, sanctions etc. than I would ever wish on anyone. Unfortunately my whole generation grew up that way and there are many who've had it worse than I did, but I am still fully aware of what a refugee crisis looks and feels like, having an experience of housing a significant number of my family members and friends who had to flee their homes back in the day, as well as talking to my wife in detail about what her experience with it was like. 

Sit tightly in USA and by all means feel free to engage in theory and philosophy of this matter, but don't let yourself believe for one minute that you can teach me something on this particular subject.

 

I was not trying to patronize you and am well aware this is a lived experience of yours. I was merely pointing out that if you had to guess how this will play out I’d expected a protracted situation with long term repercussions more so than one that resolves itself fairly quickly.

[Kalbear]

In general, but very specifically today:

In times of fast breaking news , be exceptionally wary of spreading disinformation or wrong things. The thing to watch out for most is news which specifically confirms what you want or believe. This is the stuff most likely to be wrong and have you miss warning signs, because you want it to be right.

 

[Fez]

13 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Interesting, but it's hard to believe much of anything about the military situation from Ukrainian (or Russian) sources right now.

I would be delighted to hear that on the ground Russian military capability and resolve is less than we might expect (their track record in Chechnya and Georgia was unimpressive, although they've come a long way since then).  But for the very reason I want to hear that news, I demand additional skepticism from myself, to avoid confirmation bias. 

Absolutely. There's been some members of Congress who sit on the relevant committees that are presumably getting briefings that have been suggesting Russian military capabilities do seem somewhat lacking. But it's impossible to know how accurately they're conveying what they're being told, or how accurate the briefings they're getting are.

3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Russian troops are already advancing towards Kyiv, and there have been air assaults on airfields nearby (per the UK Ministry of Defense), so I'd suggest the invasion is well and truly on, regardless of those unconfirmed reports of troops surrendering.

Oh for sure the invasion is well underway. But if the Russian military truly is at the morale/discipline/attitudes point that some soldiers are surrendering rather than fight, it doesn't speak well of the ability of Russia to maintain any sort of extended conflict against Ukraine.