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Ukraine: It’s starting…


Ser Scot A Ellison

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15 hours ago, mcbigski said:

I'm very much a give it 72 hours kind of person.  Hot takes are the easiest to hack.  Mapwise, there might be more incentive for Russia to get land access from the north to Crimea, though I think they have access from the sochi area of the NE black sea.

But why is this a Russian priority now?  Other things besides POTUS have changed, what do you think is the differentiating factor?

Well the facial hair is different. 

Though looking at a map of languages in Ukraine, it's mostly Ukrainian, with Crimea and a bit of the southeast majority Russian.  TBH I didn't realize Ukranian was different from Russian linguistically.  Assumed it was different dialects but same language.  The center of power there switched from Kiev to Moscow after the Mongols went through, and then bounced from Muscovy to St Petersburg to Moscow, as far as I know.  But Kiev and Moscow have been linked politically more often than not the last 7 centuries, haven't they?  Which is not to say Putin should take Kiev...

Give Trudeau a break, his hair is awesome.  Sure his cossacks ran over that one first nations elder, but she was a white supremicist anyway and had it coming.  Her fault for throwing in with her upper class trucker overlords.

That bit about being trampled is fake news. Even Fox "news" says so.

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15 hours ago, mcbigski said:

But why is this a Russian priority now?  Other things besides POTUS have changed, what do you think is the differentiating factor?

The completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.  

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-waive-sanctions-firm-ceo-behind-russias-nord-stream-2-pipeline-source-2021-05-19/

 

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4 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

The one the Germans are now cancelling?  Did they think the Germans wouldn’t act?

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28 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The one the Germans are now cancelling?  Did they think the Germans wouldn’t act?

perhaps he had the same illusions as the English brexiters who assumed the German car industry wouldn't allow any politically important measures. Either Putin missed that or he doesn't care.

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On why Putin and Russia are acting now, here's my guess:

- Trump enabled Russia to do whatever it wanted and there was no real risk to Russia at that point of Ukraine getting stronger or getting more accepted/supported by the US. Biden getting elected made it a lot more urgent in that regard

- Biden looked weak in Afghanistan, possible calculation that Biden would be feckless like Obama was and would not stomach more conflict of any sort

- Ukraine is getting stronger; may be significantly more expensive in the future to do this

- Putin likely underestimated EU willingness to do sanctions or risk recession

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11 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

I was gonna ask, how do these sanctions measure up to what Putin assumed would happen? Surely he gamed all this out, figured the West would impose X Y and Z and decided it was worth it. Has anything thus far surprised him?

Putin's been sanctioning proofing Russia since 2014. Adam Tooze [an economist (strike that) historian for whom I have deep respect] wrote a bit about it on Twitter a while ago, iirc.  So I doubt anything on that front has surprised him, at least so far. Putin likely assumes [or hopes] that the 'West' will hesitate or may not to impose seriously heavy sanctions because of the double edge, but I think that's a miscalculation.   

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If Russia doesn't invade (fully) and smash the Ukrainian military in the next few weeks/months, then it's certain that NATO countries will sell (possibly at a discount) a great deal of top notch military equipment to Ukraine.  Even if that stops in 2025 with a Putin-friendly White House, in three years the situation could be noticeably more dangerous for Russia to launch a full on assault on Kiev. 

And Putin knows this.  I am growing more pessimistic that this is going to just be a situation where Russia takes another bite out of Ukraine and then waits a little while for the West to look elsewhere.  I hope I'm wrong, but Putin's rhetoric the past few days has been incredibly belligerent, and a full on assault on the whole country is feeling increasingly likely. 

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14 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

- Biden looked weak in Afghanistan, possible calculation that Biden would be feckless like Obama was and would not stomach more conflict of any sort

While I agree this is very likely how Putin views/viewed things, think it should be clear that both characterizations are horseshit.

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

While I agree this is very likely how Putin views/viewed things, think it should be clear that both characterizations are horseshit.

Biden and Afghanistan, sure. Obama however seriously was feckless with respect to Russia and went way out of his way to ensure there would be no conflict. This was one of the major differences in viewpoint between him and Biden, and one of the bigger mistakes Obama made.

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26 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Putin's been sanctioning proofing Russia since 2014. Adam Tooze [an economist (strike that) historian for whom I have deep respect] wrote a bit about it on Twitter a while ago, iirc.  So I doubt anything on that front has surprised him, at least so far. Putin likely assumes [or hopes] that the 'West' will hesitate or may not to impose seriously heavy sanctions because of the double edge, but I think that's a miscalculation.   

Can you link the Twitter thread?

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26 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

He’s not wrong.  Were the last three Administrations wrong to repurpose the US Military to smaller scale conflicts?  I have a friend who served in the late 80’s early 90’s and he’s of the opinion “Reforger” is no longer possible nor is the US Military structured for a large scale stand up fight.

 

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21 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If Russia doesn't invade (fully) and smash the Ukrainian military in the next few weeks/months, then it's certain that NATO countries will sell (possibly at a discount) a great deal of top notch military equipment to Ukraine.  Even if that stops in 2025 with a Putin-friendly White House, in three years the situation could be noticeably more dangerous for Russia to launch a full on assault on Kiev. 

And Putin knows this.  I am growing more pessimistic that this is going to just be a situation where Russia takes another bite out of Ukraine and then waits a little while for the West to look elsewhere.  I hope I'm wrong, but Putin's rhetoric the past few days has been incredibly belligerent, and a full on assault on the whole country is feeling increasingly likely. 

I think the US intelligence services are of the same mind. There is a reason why the embassy in Ukraine is now fully moving to Poland. 

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@Varysblackfyre321 

 

I can't remember if it was a thread, a twitter discussion, or discussion on the same of an article he was cited in. The basic gist was that Putin has been hoarding reserves, getting out of the US dollar comparative to before, streamlining costs, etc, all to have a war chest [so to speak] that hedges against sanctions. iirc, there was also something about how he could keep the oligarchs inline during sanction income/property disruptions. 

Putin's been preparing for this, or something like it. He may be unhinged, but dude isn't some wild flake.  

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17 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Biden and Afghanistan, sure. Obama however seriously was feckless with respect to Russia and went way out of his way to ensure there would be no conflict. This was one of the major differences in viewpoint between him and Biden, and one of the bigger mistakes Obama made.

While it's true, at least to some extent, that Obama and Biden disagreed in 2014, it's very much revisionist history to characterize Obama's decision to not pursue more punitive measures upon Russia then as "feckless."  Not only was the domestic environment entirely different, so too was the resolve of European partners.  Ultimately it was a very reasonable conclusion based on the context, not to mention the extent of political capital that would be necessary.  Obviously with the benefit of hindsight we can confidently say he should have done some things different, but like much if not most of the criticisms leveled at the Obama administration this is speciously ignoring how things looked at the time.

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7 minutes ago, DMC said:

While it's true, at least to some extent, that Obama and Biden disagreed in 2014, it's very much revisionist history to characterize Obama's decision to not pursue more punitive measures upon Russia then as "feckless."  Not only was the domestic environment entirely different, so too was the resolve of European partners.  Ultimately it was a very reasonable conclusion based on the context, not to mention the extent of political capital that would be necessary.  Obviously with the benefit of hindsight we can confidently say he should have done some things different, but like much if not most of the criticisms leveled at the Obama administration this is speciously ignoring how things looked at the time.

I understand some of Obama's logic, but it's not revisionist history. Obama could have chosen to go harder against Russia, and chose not to - and that became an issue from 2014 to 2016 in US politics too. It wasn't just the environment at the time or the context. It was how Obama tended to favor conflicts against big countries, and it also has to do with the level of coordination that Biden is willing to do. There are a lot of articles on these differences; here's one:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/19/politics/joe-biden-russia-ukraine-obama-2014/index.html

Here's one from Obama's advisor on what Obama didn't do:

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/john-brennan/

 

Obama was caught off-guard, that's true, but his reaction was still to be fairly passive and not risk provocation with Russia. Biden definitely does not have that viewpoint.

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1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

There are a lot of articles on these differences; here's one:

I..really don't give a shit that there are a lot of articles on these differences.  Obama did not enjoy, comparatively, the much more pliable landscape Biden has had to coordinate such a response to Russian aggression both at home and abroad.  And of course, the reason Biden has enjoyed such a landscape is in large part precisely because of those events.  Any op-eds that say differently ARE revisionist history.  As for Obama's "tendency to be passive," yeah, that's just unequivocally rightwing and/or hawkish horseshit.

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9 minutes ago, DMC said:

I..really don't give a shit that there are a lot of articles on these differences.  Obama did not enjoy, comparatively, the much more pliable landscape Biden has had to coordinate such a response to Russian aggression both at home and abroad. 

Yes, Obama didn't enjoy the kind of landscape that...uh...had Republicans actively saying how Russia should be able to do whatever it wanted? 

I'm not sure domestically that this argument holds even remote water. Right now Putin has a higher approval among Republicans than Biden does.

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

As for Obama's "tendency to be passive," yeah, that's just unequivocally rightwing and/or hawkish horseshit.

I don't think that that's accurate either. We have Obama's reaction to Syria's crossing the red line. We have his reaction to Russia actually attacking the election in the US and doing basically nothing. Obama did not try and coordinate with allies against Russia either. Regardless of what your view is, the prevailing view of his advisors, his cabinet, his VP was that Obama did not do enough - and if that's their view, I'm pretty sure that's the prevailing view of most of the world. 

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