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Ukraine: It’s starting…


Ser Scot A Ellison

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4 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

Another good article on what putin and Russia are thinking - and they've told us.

I think my best analogy here is China and Taiwan. It doesn't matter if we think China has a legitimate claim or not, just like it doesnt matter that putins views are deeply ahistorical. All that matters is that it will be a guiding principle of Russian foreign policy going forward, and the rest of the world has the choice to accept it or to oppose it.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/23/22945781/russia-ukraine-putin-speech-transcript-february-22

Kal, right now you seem more correct in this thread than I usually find you.  That article didn't touch on it, as far as I saw, but assuming the borders shift and that Russia gets more territory, what does that portend for Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia?  Kaliningrad seems like an issue, not being currently attached to the rest of Russia.  Though I don't think the "historically Russian" case there is solid, it was part of the USSR only since '46.  So basically no one under 80 there still remembers when it wasn't Russian, if Stalin even let them stick around after the war, but it seems like a flash point waiting to go off to me.

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1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

Putin sincerely believes Ukraine should be part of Russia, IS part of Russia, and must be part of Russia. And a lot of Russian politicians view this the same way. It is a vile, ahistoric, ugly thing - but it is also what they believe, and therefore we must treat those as the goals they have.

Putin and the oligarchs wouldn’t spend billions and risk crashing their country’s economy further over something so sentimental.

Its the resources within the region and it’s strategic volubility that would make it worth invading.
 

This quite frankly reminds of when some people try to make China’s backing of North Korea primarily being done for some cultural connections. Instead of you know being done because China fears a United western friendly Korea.

 

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Ukraine has redirected its entire national energy grid into internal, autonomous operations only. All energy links entering the country from Russia and Belarus have been terminated. That may help stop the cyberattacks shutting down the entire country.

An absolute ton of videos and pictures on Twitter showing Russian military units leaving their barracks and positions along the border, specifically along the northern border, extending way to the west of the two breakaway republics.

Now unconfirmed reports of explosions in Mariupol. Mariupol is in Donetsk but under Ukrainian control after they recaptured it from the rebels, the most significant Ukrainian victory in the conflict. It is the nearest city to the conflict line and likely the first major urban area to be targeted in the invasion, possibly along with Kharkiv, which is located close to the northern border. Those two cities have a combined population of 2 million, just to put into sharp relief the scale of what is going on here.

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1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

I mean, Tucker Carlson got quoted by RT verbatim. So it's definitely working. It's also working for them since they got Trump to say how clever Putin was. 

The American right are naturally go to side with the country they admire. 
Putin has turned Russia into everything they desire; an ultra-capitalistic oligarchy who often virtue signals in regards to Christianity and locks up the gays.
If Putin said he was going into Ukraine to eradicate all the woke and cancel culture, I’m pretty sure many republicans would say he should be president of the US.

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1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Putin and the oligarchs wouldn’t spend billions and risk crashing their country’s economy further over something so sentimental.

Its the resources within the region and it’s strategic volubility that would make it worth invading.

It's a mixture of things. Ukraine declaring independence was seen as the shot that killed the Soviet Union. Its natural resources are formidable.

In the 1990s Russia had the opportunity to fully embrace democracy, stamp out corruption and grow its largely untapped economic potential. If it had done that, it would now be a genuine probable superpower again, outranging any country in Europe. It instead chose corruption, power-hungry and greedy oligarchs, and an autocrat. The Russian government believes that its path forward is the re-establishment of Greater Russia (previously in the form of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union), and Ukraine is a key part of that. It adds 40 million to Russia's population (carrying it well over 200 million) and a vast amount of economic riches and development, as well as bringing Russian forces to the borders of Poland, Hungary (a potential key, future ally) and Romania.

It also allows Russia to possibly invade and reclaim Moldova at a later date: Moldova has recently elected a pro-EU government, to Putin's evident fury, and there is a breakaway region along Moldova's border with Ukraine, Transnistria, which he can manipulate like the Donbas.

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Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Putin and the oligarchs wouldn’t spend billions and risk crashing their country’s economy further over something so sentimental.

And this is where you simply misunderstand their viewpoint, as well as their importance.

This isn't just 'sentimentality' any more than the US is sentimental for owning Hawaii or Puerto Rico or China is for Taiwan. This is to Russia a core identity part of them. This is far more akin to religious zeal than it is rational politics, but it ultimately doesn't matter.

The other thing is that they fear,  very strongly, loss of their power. They do not what a Maidan revolution to take over in Russia. They do not want people to see how much better they have it in the EU. They do not want people seeing democracy succeed. For them, Ukraine having this crisis and rejecting Russia is an existential threat. Not to Russia and not because of military things (though Russia seemingly will always be insecure that way), but because a political neighbor having a successful democracy that had once been very, very Russian is a Bad Thing.

Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Its the resources within the region and it’s strategic volubility that would make it worth invading.

Ukraine doesn't have major gas/oil reserves, and certainly nothing compared to Russia. It is mostly valuable for exporting grain. It also isn't hugely strategically valuable to Russia past Crimea. 

Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This quite frankly reminds of when some people try to make China’s backing of North Korea primarily being done for some cultural connections. Instead of you know being done because China fears a United western friendly Korea.

I think China doesn't have that kind of irrational viewpoint of Korea and in that case it is very much about political and military security. As I said above, a better example is Taiwan. While Taiwan is prosperous, the reason China wants it has nothing to do with any resources or security or anything like that and everything to do with their belief that it is theirs and that the descendants of Chiang Kai-shek should be obliterated and not allowed to flourish. 

23 minutes ago, mcbigski said:

Kal, right now you seem more correct in this thread than I usually find you.  That article didn't touch on it, as far as I saw, but assuming the borders shift and that Russia gets more territory, what does that portend for Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia?  Kaliningrad seems like an issue, not being currently attached to the rest of Russia.  Though I don't think the "historically Russian" case there is solid, it was part of the USSR only since '46.  So basically no one under 80 there still remembers when it wasn't Russian, if Stalin even let them stick around after the war, but it seems like a flash point waiting to go off to me.

Aw, thanks!

I don't think that Russia sees the Baltics in the same boat as Ukraine. There aren't murals of Lithuanian-Russian allegiance in the Moscow subway the way there are Ukraine ones. In a lot of ways they're more strategic - closer to scarier parts of Russia, better ports - but ethnically they are very distinct, they are incredibly anti-Russian, would be super expensive to take over - and they are very zealous members of NATO. 

I think that if Putin can split NATO or make it nonfunctional he'd go after them next. But that's a BIIIG if. And he knows right now that they would get defended by NATO. 

Kaliningrad oblast is...weird. (I'm  vaguely named after that, because my mom did not know where lithuania was and it sounded neat) It was ethnically and politically German, speaks almost 100% Russian now, is firmly and popularly in Russia's orbit and has no real desire to go anywhere other than Russia. I guess it could be a flashpoint? But I don't know that Germany wants it back at all, I'm positive none of the Baltics want to touch it, so it seems okay where it is.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Russia has just issued a civil aviation notice closing the airspace along Russia's entire border with Ukraine

Ukraine has ordered a ground stop at all airports in the east of the country. Some reports the runways at those airports are already being rendered unusable. Seems to be a move to stop Russian aircraft landing on the runways.

Roadblocks are also shooting up inside the major cities including Kyiv.

Apparently the Ukrainians have had a long, long time to think about what to do should Russia attack and, as perhaps minimal as those measures can be, seem to be implementing contingency plans.

Also, reports of explosions over/in Dontesk and a possible power outage in Kharkiv. Sounds like confused and slightly panicky reporting.

Damn it.  

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Explosions being heard outside Mariupol, although some speculating it's actually the sound from the front line, which is just 20km away. If that's true, there must be some pretty horrendous bombardments going on.

Naval traffic watchers have noticed that no ship has entered or left the Sea of Azov via the Kerch Strait for over an hour and a half, suggesting a possible naval blockade. Russian tugs and pilots (with their transponders still on) seem to be gathering under the bridge linking the Crimea Peninsula to Russia.

Utterly irrelevant on one level, but Formula One has apparently suspended the Russian Formula One contract and replaced it with an event in Turkey. Given F1's cheerful willingness to race in countries with massive human rights abuses, slavery and occasional full-on military conflict, that's quite impressive.

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When… the Russian Navy in the Black Sea blockades Ukrainian ports what happens when neutral shipping runs up against the blockade?  Will NATO naval forces protect Neutral shipping into Ukrainian harbors?

I seem to recall that being a serious issue during WWI and WWII.

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3 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

But that's not the case. Putin sincerely believes Ukraine should be part of Russia, IS part of Russia, and must be part of Russia. And a lot of Russian politicians view this the same way.

At this point, my impression is that some Russians would like a full annexation, but Putin is still aware it would be a huge money and manpower sink, many locals wouldn't accept it, and it's just not worth it. Of course, it's obvious he's upsed and disappointed Ukraine parted so totally and he would love it to come back on its own, but unless he's becoming senile, he understands you can't totally force it. Taking some smaller parts, on the other hand...

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

I don't understand that.  The US could only do what it has done (given troops weren't an option and it clearly didn't want to accept Russian aggression).

I mean, not making such a public fuss and hyping the Russian threat. Ignoring it mostly - which doesn't mean US/NATO wouldn't stealthily reinforce Eastern Europe. The free publicity emboldened Putin to go with big demands, and it also put a huge pressure on him because many Russians hoped that he would actually move against Ukraine.

3 hours ago, Werthead said:
I've been reasonably impressed with Zelensky's handling of the situation over the last few weeks.

Same for me. I think he's been a better leader than most NATO/EU/Western leaders, not to mention better than the last few Ukrainian presidents. It's massively frustrating, because with enough time and under very different and less threatening circumstances, I think he and Putin could discuss and make some progress - not solving everything, of course, there are some issues that probably are too thorny for a deal.

2 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

They do not want people to see how much better they have it in the EU.

This is the one argument that's just downright totally wrong, even though the others have value. We're talking about Russia, not North Korea. Do you have any idea how many millions of Russians have actually gone to Europe, Israel, Turkey? Not to mention the media they consume. They know very well how it is in the EU, probably better than how most Europeans know how it is in Russia. If most Russians don't want that, it's not because they're kept in the dark behind the Iron Curtain, it's because they don't like parts of it.

About Ukraine's resources, as you say, Russia has way more than that and more than the country will ever need. The only thing they'd gain by annexing it is denying these resources to the West.

Using Putin's reasoning, Kaliningrad should be given back to Germany, no doubt at all. But Germany officially renounced any claim back in 1990, it was part of the reunification deal. And it's been fully ethnically cleansed at the end of the war - both parts, the Russian and the Polish ones.

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The Russian UN representative said he's "starting to enjoy these nightly meetings."

I'm glad that fucking sociopath thinks it's fun and light-hearted that his country is outright invading another one with the unstated goal of removing their ability to be a country any more.

 

And Week - to keep using the bully analogy, I think in this case the bully is out to remove their target's fists, feet, and brain. Ukraine only gets to think what Russia tells them and can never disagree.

Fuck this entire thing and fuck Russian leadership for doing murdering pieces of excrement and sorry, pathetic examples of human beings.

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Very general report of explosions in Kyiv 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/23/putin-says-russia-open-to-diplomacy-as-moscow-hit-with-fresh-sanctions.html

 

Quote

Putin warned other countries that any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen,” according to Reuters.

Within minutes after Putin announced that action, the NBC News team in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv reported hearing explosions in the city.

A CNN team stationed in Kharkiv, a Ukrainian city closer to the Russian border, also reported hearing artillery.

 

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Partner's hair person is from Ukraine, but not a member of this board.  Every summer for years she goes back 'home' to visit family.  She just became a grandmother this last year and hasn't yet met her grandson.

 

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