Ukraine: It’s starting…

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

CNN just reported that Ukrainian forces on the Northern border are under attack by Russian and Beylorussian forces.

[GrimTuesday]

Wait what?

Ukraine is getting fucked up and they're questioning whether Russia is actually the successor to the USSR and the veto that comes with that seat? I get that they have to do something, but it's still kind of falling in a meat grinder and asking a cow to come save you.

It is actually kind of an interesting tack to take, but utterly ineffective.

[polishgenius]

21 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Ukraine is getting fucked up and they're questioning whether Russia is actually the successor to the USSR and the veto that comes with that seat? I get that they have to do something, but it's still kind of falling in a meat grinder and asking a cow to come save you.

It is actually kind of an interesting tack to take, but utterly ineffective.

 

I mean, they might as well give it a go. It costs them very little actual practical effort, doesn't distract at all from the defensive focus on the ground, and could help efforts to stop Russia from the outside in the longshot chance it worked.


Anyway, seems like activity as far across as Lviv. That's... not good.  

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, GrimTuesday said:

First off, I don't believe for a second there are "kill lists", it's in the same vein as the bullshit bounty on American troops crap that was being peddled last year. If Russia's goal is to kill Ukrainian leadership, they could do it easier through covert means, and there is no shot that Russia is going to appropriate any significant amount of resources to hunting down LGBT activists I can think of many group that would be a higher priority. Being skeptical of American intelligence especially those where absolutely no evidence is presented to back that intelligence should be the default position given their track record in the last 22 years.

Yeah, you're wrong. There are kill lists. The US also had them but they used the nicer "high value targets" name. The media is simply choosing to say "kill list". 

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

Yeah, you're wrong. There are kill lists. The US also had them but they used the nicer "high value targets" name. The media is simply choosing to say "kill list". 

And again from a goal oriented standpoint it makes perfect sense. Going in and murdering all leaders who have rejected Russia or Russian viewpoints or Russian ideals makes any recovery harder, it makes a power vacuum happen, and it makes it possible for Russian supporting people to come to power. 

And it ain't like putin is unwilling to attempt to kill people who speak out against Russia. This goes entirely in line with russias goals of terrorizing anyone opposed to Russia, just at a higher level of opportunity and scale.

[polishgenius]

2 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

The first war in Europe since WW II.

 

Never thought I'd see one in my lifetime.

 

I mean this is terrible but there have been several. In the Balkans, Chechnya (so even involving Russia's not without precedent) etc. 

 

 

I also worry that the reason China aren't more bothered, despite a potential Russian absorption of Ukraine being bad for them in the long run, is that they hope the US does get drawn into sending troops and then they'll move on Taiwan.

[Which Tyler]

Well fuck!

[Free Northman Reborn]

Putin simply understands and practices realpolitik better than any other world leader.

[Loge]

3 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

The first war in Europe since WW II.

 

Never thought I'd see one in my lifetime.

Putin did the same thing to Georgia in 2008. And the war in Donbas has been going on since 2014. 14,000 dead. The West has been in denial for a long time.

[Toth]

Can't an Ukrainian rocket somehow find its way to Sochi and flatten a certain villa there?

[mormont]

36 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Putin simply understands and practices realpolitik better than any other world leader.

I know folks like to think sometimes that this sort of remark is a clear-eyed, dispassionate insight but the thing is, it's also open praise for a warmongering murderer undertaking a morally despicable course of action. So it doesn't come off very well.

[Falcon2909]

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Falcon2909

Still think US intel reports are funny?

 

I find it exciting that the invasion is occuring

[Ran]

1 minute ago, Falcon2909 said:

I find it exciting that the invasion is occuring

And that's how you get permanently banned from the forum.

[The Sunland Lord]

3 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

The first war in Europe since WW II.

Mm Yugoslav wars in the 90's? 

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Mm Yugoslav wars in the 90's? 

Russo-Georgian War of 2008, the Donbas War/Russo-Ukrainian War which really started in 2014 and is now escalating. The common thread in these two events is, of course, Putin's Russia.

[Derfel Cadarn]

59 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Putin simply understands and practices realpolitik better than any other world leader.

You must be so relieved the orange clown is no longer in power. 
The US Republican party was certainly a shrewd purchase for Putin. The Tory party in the UK, too.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, GrimTuesday said:

Of course lets not forget, there are a lot of Neo-Nazi/ethno nationalists groups on the Russian side of things (Wagner Group anyone?) too but they aren't getting positive, uncritical coverage in the west.

If Fox had a neo-nazi on that's bad yeah (although hardly unique), but I'm not seeing this "positive, uncritical coverage" as particularly widespread.

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

1 hour ago, polishgenius said:

 

I mean this is terrible but there have been several. In the Balkans, Chechnya (so even involving Russia's not without precedent) etc. 

 

 

I also worry that the reason China aren't more bothered, despite a potential Russian absorption of Ukraine being bad for them in the long run, is that they hope the US does get drawn into sending troops and then they'll move on Taiwan.

China's not yet at the stage where they are ready to conduct an all-out invasion of Taiwan.  At any rate, God forbid NATO forces get drawn into the conflict, which would be tantamount to WWIII, but the US sending (for example) a corps of an armoured and two mechanized infantry divisions plus air and naval assets, would still leave massive forces in the Indo-Pacific to deter a Chinese attack given the current size and efficacy of their military.

What China is doing is observing with keen interest - seeing how and on what timetables western democracies respond to Russian brinkmanship and now outright military aggression, so this could be applied in the future.  What diplomatic smokescreens leading up to a potential invasion of Taiwan might be useful?   Are there any weaknesses that could be exploited or allies to be gained?  What will the level of the west's collective resolve ultimately be?  All of these factors are going to be analyzed and factored into Chinese strategic thinking re: Taiwan.

[Heartofice]

Decided to switch on RT news this morning to see what level of bizarre propaganda was being pumped out of there. Some press conference with what I assumed was the leader of the Luhansk russian militia. Quite scary rhetoric.

Gist of it was we need to bring back the good old days of Russia, reunite to become powerful again, the EU is becoming a bloc and we need to do the same to compete. 

Sure this is just some militia grunt but you have to wonder how widespread that viewpoint is.

[DMC]

3 hours ago, GrimTuesday said:

Ukraine is getting fucked up and they're questioning whether Russia is actually the successor to the USSR and the veto that comes with that seat? I get that they have to do something, but it's still kind of falling in a meat grinder and asking a cow to come save you.

It is actually kind of an interesting tack to take, but utterly ineffective.

Well, I agree that challenging them on the grounds of being the USSR's successor is pretty silly, but calling into question their permanent membership on the security council is pretty standard rhetoric considering the circumstances.  It's not all that different than what Bob Menendez (Senate Foreign Relations Chair) said:

Quote

“This unprovoked attack has brought into sharp focus the need to expel the current Kremlin leadership from the international community,” Menendez said. “Today must mark a historical shift in how the world views and deals with the despot in Moscow.”

It's not gonna happen - pretty sure the only way to expel Russia from the security council is to expel them from the UN entirely, which definitely isn't gonna happen.  But the rhetoric and even effort to do so makes sense.