Ukraine: It’s starting…

[RhaenysBee]

9 minutes ago, Loge said:

Back to normal? What's normal even supposed to mean now?

Lack of tanks, explosions and gunfire. I have a feeling that’s good enough for everybody. 

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Oof, never thought I would see someone actually advocate for a multi polar international system, or at least no one who didn't work for the arms industry.

As opposed to the US "imperialists" running roughshod over the entire world unopposed?

3 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Ukraine elected a Jewish president with an overwhelming majority. Their far-right parties never had more than 5% of votes.

Yeah I don't see any reason to think the far-right is a particular problem in Ukraine.  Especially compared to many other European states and of course the US.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

where a one world government never arises to erase nation states.

If the alternative is more totalitarian states carving up the world further  limiting the rights of individual and increasing the amount cultural/ethnic genocide  then eh. A One world order sounds fine with me. 

[Padraig]

Depressing.

7 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

About Ukraine's resources, as you say, Russia has way more than that and more than the country will ever need.

That's not how greed works.

7 hours ago, Clueless Northman said:

I mean, not making such a public fuss and hyping the Russian threat. Ignoring it mostly - which doesn't mean US/NATO wouldn't stealthily reinforce Eastern Europe. The free publicity emboldened Putin to go with big demands, and it also put a huge pressure on him because many Russians hoped that he would actually move against Ukraine.

And I really don't think Putin is doing this for the attention.

10 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

But that's not the case. Putin sincerely believes Ukraine should be part of Russia, IS part of Russia, and must be part of Russia. And a lot of Russian politicians view this the same way.

I do get that.  I'm nitpicking but sincerity is often interpreted as a positive characteristic.  But there is nothing positive about what he is doing.

And whether he is "sincere" or not, he clearly thinks he can get away with what he is going.  So, from the point of view of Ukraine, it doesn't change anything.  Putin is certainly not dying for the cause.

[Lightning Lord]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Or. Let Russia have Ukraine and become the dominant power in Eastern Europe.

It isn't Russia's to have. Ukrainians wanted to be part of Europe and NATO. They weren't being forced into it. Being forced to choose Russian influence at the point of a gun (literally now, instead of just figuratively in the last 15 years) isn't acceptable.

They're Ukrainian, not Russian, despite how much Putin and his propaganda machine want you to believe. Most people there identify as Ukrainian, even if they spoke Russian.

All the rhetoric about how "oh waaa NATO kept expanding!" NATO wasn't forcing people to join up. Nations were asking to be part and we're seeing why they were queuing up right now.

Russia couldn't sort out how to convince people of their argument so they just push 'em up against a locker and demand their lunch money. And dinner money. And their bookbag.

Fuck off that that's how the world should work or that it would be better - it would be better and more comfortable for you, not the world. (to be fair, I've never seen you deny that it's your selfish self-interest and comfort that concerns you most and the rest of the world can burn)

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You’re getting China and India as regional superpowers whether you want it or not.

Inevitable on China’s end. Probably for India.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Similarly, Russia can’t expand beyond Eastern Europe into NATO countries.

 

There are Eastern European countries In nato right now.

Russia has demanded they be kicked out which would make further incursion westward even easier and more likely.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You can’t save every country, but you can stabilize these borders pretty well through alliances. China can’t invade Australia, Japan or South Korea if they are allied with the US.

If China recognizes they won’t get any hard pushback from America for taking South Korea, or Taiwan, then any alliance on paper would not matter. 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Neither China nor Russia wants to rule the entire world.

It’s probable neither  Putin or Jingping think that every nation under the sky will someday bow before them. It’s probable they’d like that.. But since they can’t literally rule the world, they’d probably settle for their respective countries supplanting the US as the global hegemony

Hence China’s investment’s within Latin America and Africa. 

The rulers of states will generally  expand their dominion of power to the extent they feel is in their material interest no more, no less.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yes, Bismark set up such an alliance based world order that guaranteed relative peace that lasted until WW1. But now all the large players have nuclear weapons. No one wins in such a war. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but we could face nuclear war at the drop of a hat anyway.

I think this multi polar setup buys us 50-100 years. After which we will be expanding off planet anyway, and the whole dynamic changes again.

For it to work, Bismark's system needed the main actors to be as rational and competent as he was.  Unfortunately, by 1914, none of the major players was.  Each one underestimated the willingness of their opponents to fight, and overestimated their own military capacity.

The Congress of Vienna was actually an example of creating a European balance of power that provided a long period of peace.  But, the social and economic changes of the nineteenth century ultimately put paid to the wise policies of Metternich, Talleyrand, and Castlereagh.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yeah I don't see any reason to think the far-right is a particular problem in Ukraine.  Especially compared to many other European states and of course the US.

I’d be wary of this line of reasoning because the far-right has shown at least in the short terms tolerance or respect for specific members of groups they’d like to subjugate or destroy.

One of the founders of the brown shirts was a gay man who was pretty open about it. Didn’t stop the Nazis from eventually sending gay people to camps.

1 hour ago, Lightning Lord said:

Fuck off that that's how the world should work or that it would be better - it would be better and more comfortable for you, not the world. (to be fair, I've never seen you deny that it's your selfish self-interest and comfort that concerns you most and the rest of the world can burn)

Possibly not even just to an individual benefit if they live in the US or a Western European country. 
There’s a naive view among some nationalists that anything outside their borders or at least the immediacy of their borders cannot meaningfully affect their respective nation’s ability to get what it wants/needs. 
 

If China takes Taiwan for instance then the US or any nation would be less able to say no to China in regards to anything from trade agreements with China to even what states encourage/allow citizens to show revulsion to China(for example demand company boycotts against China to be banned).

Nations need their semi-conductors.

[sologdin]

this focus on Nazis while ignoring the same on Russian side is Russian propaganda.

that may be stating it a bit strongly. an accurate appraisal of the composition of belligerents is essential, as is charitable assumption of interlocutor good faith.

definitely safe to conclude, however, that every state has far right elements and that no state may ethically or lawfully threaten or use force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any other state merely because of the existence of those far right elements.

the nazi analogue is of course in the russian empire's aggressive nationalism, irredentism, treaty revisionism, anti-communism, illiberalism, manifest mendacity, and open violation of what is now codified at art. 8 bis of the rome statute.

 

ETA--it occurs to me that the ukraine has accepted ICC jurisdiction indefinitely since the prior russian incursion.  accordingly the russian leadership should be subject to erga omnes universal jurisdiction, like pirates, as hostis humani generis. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I’d be wary of this line of reasoning because the far-right has shown at least in the short terms tolerance or respect for specific members of groups they’d like to subjugate or destroy.

One of the founders of the brown shirts was a gay man who was pretty open about it. Didn’t stop the Nazis from eventually sending gay people to camps.

What does this have to do with the far-right's relatively minor influence on Ukrainian politics (again, especially compared to many other states)?

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

What does this have to do with the far-right's relatively minor influence on Ukrainian politics (again, especially compared to many other states)?

I can agree with the idea the far-rights influence in Ukraine has been grossly exaggerated.

I just don’t think pointing to the president’s ethnicity is strong proof of that.

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I can agree with the idea the far-rights influence in Ukraine has been grossly exaggerated.

I just don’t think pointing to the president’s ethnicity is strong proof of that.

Ok.  In the post you responded to I didn't mention Zelenskyy's ethnicity at all.

[Heartofice]

Throwing the term Nazi around in terms of Ukraine has been part of the Russian narrative for a while, probably quite a useful angle for them. I even saw it mentioned today on RT news.

On that, its always interesting to see how RT is framing events.

https://www.rt.com/russia/

Of course, barely mentioning the invasion and instead focusing on the sanctions and the response to the sanctions. The UK homepage hilariously was a headline about 100k covid cases, with Putin in a small corner. 

I'm always amazed RT has been allowed to function in the UK, but I guess pulling it down is an even bigger PR win for Putin.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Gorn said:

Ukraine elected a Jewish president with an overwhelming majority. Their far-right parties never had more than 5% of votes.

So yes, this focus on Nazis while ignoring the same on Russian side is Russian propaganda.

I do find it truly bizarre that some people are coming here spewing Russian propaganda talking points as Russia literally invades a country that was not an active threat to them. As a Jew I can tell you the claims of Nazis in Ukraine are totally irrelevant to what is happening right now. Full stop.

2 hours ago, baxus said:

That would depend on how long this mess lasts and what the consequences of it turn out to be.

If it gets resolved within days, normal would mean pretty much the same as before (speaking in general terms, obviously not for those who lose a loved one in the conflict). If it lasts years, then you can look at our part of Europe to see what will the new normal be.

This isn't getting resolved in a few days. We may very well look back at last night as Russia crossing its own Rubicon. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

Utterly irrelevant on one level, but Formula One has apparently suspended the Russian Formula One contract and replaced it with an event in Turkey. Given F1's cheerful willingness to race in countries with massive human rights abuses, slavery and occasional full-on military conflict, that's quite impressive.

UEFA is pulling the Champion's League Final from Russia this year as well. It's of little importance in the grand scheme of things, but I doubt Russia will be awarded a major international sporting event for a long time to come. 

[3CityApache]

I think all Russian sportsmen should be immediately banned from all international events, starting with ATP/WTA tournaments currently taking place, mostly in Middle East. But I doubt sports organizations will have enough balls to do it.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

UEFA is pulling the Champion's League Final from Russia this year as well. It's of little importance in the grand scheme of things, but I doubt Russia will be awarded a major international sporting event for a long time to come. 

That isn’t going to be cancelled?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

I think all Russian sportsmen should be immediately banned from all international events, starting with ATP/WTA tournaments currently taking place, mostly in Middle East. But I doubt sports organizations will have enough balls to do it.

Why wouldn’t they be banned?

[3CityApache]

@Scot 

Because sports organizations in general are bloody cowards. UEFA even informing about pulling the Champion's League Final from Russia did everything it could not to use word "invasion".

[Heartofice]

Aren't they already kind of banned.. being made to compete under ROC or whatever for the olympics.