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Ukraine: It’s starting…


Ser Scot A Ellison

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16 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

Ok, this is a fair point I admit. And what about individual sports where athlets perform under Russian flag, like tennis players? I do think such a pressure might prove useful, even if this is just emotions speaking.

Of course I know it's all fully theoretical, as it won't happen.

Just worth noting, the Mormon church (at least in the US) dropped a lot of its racist practices in part because premier college football teams refused to schedule BYU (the main Mormon university in the US). People like their sports and will change their behavior to keep them going.

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8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just worth noting, the Mormon church (at least in the US) dropped a lot of its racist practices in part because premier college football teams refused to schedule BYU (the main Mormon university in the US). People like their sports and will change their behavior to keep them going.

Well, BYU is also a significant institution of the Mormon church.  That's not really comparable to individual Russian athletes.  Anyway, I don't think any such efforts to ban or pressure international Russian athletes is going to alter Putin/Russia's actions one bit.

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26 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I do suspect there is more than one can ever imagine behind these extreme actions. I cannot put my finger on it. But it smells to something very serious.

For once, I think (and hear) that Putin is seriously ill so there is need to hurry (Biden too but there succession is not a problem).

It's possible that US is developing some destabilizating weapon system or there are alterations in the world balance (economical, technologically, etc) that needed to be countered at earnest. I don't know. It feels like Shirvan's moment in the Lord of Emperors: "It is not to be allowed. We will go to war."  (read that book!)

As a tragic/comic note... A friend of mine who is a bit on the esoteric side, predicted months ago that on the 26th of February great changes will come. She was referring mostly to Pandemic related policies (which she opposes) but prophesies can bite you in your ass as anyone who has read asoiaf can tell.

 

That is just idle speculation though.

I mean I just saw a post on a German language site that a new and much more severe variant of COVID is spreading in Russia and Putin needs to act before he runs out of manpower. There is no evidence for that just like there is no evidence that Putin is dying.

It could just be a case of an old dictator getting more and more megalomaniac and paranoid as he ages.

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34 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I suspect that Putin has other, severe issues at home and this is a last ditch attempt to shore up support at home. There is no retirement waiting for him if he steps down but a fast plane to a safe haven if he can. He is spending a huge amount of political capital for basically a minor irritant. My prediction is that this is the start of a long miserable road for Russia that will see them become the 4th rate power they deserve to be.

Feels too early to say that this is some colossal mistake or some great triumph by Putin.  This invasion will have real costs for Russia, in terms of lives and equipment lost, and in terms of economic sanctions.  It's likely that Putin considers those a worthwhile tradeoff. 

The political ramifications are harder to parse. Russian internal politics are extremely opaque, so it's difficult to say how strong Putin's grip on power is, and if there are realistic challengers to his rule.  In addition, a lot depends on how things develop on the ground in Ukraine.  If, a month from now, Russia has flattened the Ukrainian military and either killed/captured/exiled all of their political ruling class, then what is the next step?  The Ukrainian population will hate Russia and will hate any puppet Russia props up.  Will Russian troops stick around for years keeping their cronies in power?  If so, that is a recipe for disaster.  Ukrainian resistance will certainly not go away, and Russia will have to keep a sizable amount of troops in a country that is both larger and more populous than Iraq.  But the alternative of just leaving isn't much better.  Then Ukrainian democracy probably falls apart and is replaced by an anti-Russia strongman.  That might be preferable to Ukrainian democracy for Russia, but it's hardly a big win. 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

This isn't getting resolved in a few days. We may very well look back at last night as Russia crossing its own Rubicon. 

I have no idea how long it would take, I can only hope for a quick resolution with as close to no casualties as possible.

1 hour ago, 3CityApache said:

I think all Russian sportsmen should be immediately banned from all international events, starting with ATP/WTA tournaments currently taking place, mostly in Middle East. But I doubt sports organizations will have enough balls to do it.

Why exactly? Do you think some Russian tennis player has anything to do with what's going on in Ukraine? Do you think they have any influence over that? You think it would only take Danil Medvedev saying "stop this" for conflict to stop?

How on Earth do you take a random Russian citizen and hold them accountable for national politics?

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That isn’t going to be cancelled?

Why would such a major sporting event be cancelled? Final match is moved out of Russia and that's it. If the situation escalates further, situation would be reassessed.

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Why wouldn’t they be banned?

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

So… Russian players will not be banned Gazprom will not be expelled as a sponsor?

Why would Russian players, especially ones playing for foreign clubs be banned from playing? What is their responsibility for such actions?

Also, even if we agree (for the sake of argument) that they should be banned, why limit the ban to athletes only? There are Russians all over the world doing other stuff. Why not ban them from doing their jobs? Why can a Russian athlete not perform and Russian, let's say, engineer can continue his work?

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Yes.  If Russian Athletes want to compete internationally they can renounce their Russian citizenship.

This is a different world this morning. 

Are you aware that "all Russians should renounce their citizenship if they want to do X" is not that far from "Russians are lower race and should have their rights and freedoms taken away"? And does this "different world" that you say we have this morning make it ok to do things that way?

Just to point out, I am in no way supporting Russian invasion of Ukraine but I wouldn't want to see all Russian people share the blame for their government's actions. I don't remember anyone calling for USA/UK athletes and clubs to be banned from international competitions or asking for them to renounce their citizenships when their countries' governments invaded Iraq under a very flimsy pretence of WMDs.

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It is of no use or help, for you all, but my heart breaks for all of you members here who are so directly affected in so many ways by this invasion.  Thank you for giving us your insights and perspectives and sharing your outlooks here.

 

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7 minutes ago, Zorral said:

It would be nice if sports don't derail discussion of even a war in which currently people are dying through no fault of their own.

 

We're discussing what actions can be taken by international organizations and other nations against this. Sports happens to be one of those areas where action can be taken. It's entirely appropriate to discuss it, as it is to discuss economic sanctions. It's not making light of anything; rather, it's treating it as the serious matter that it is.

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I think ... what is bothering me about this ... is we're arguing about sports events, which ones, etc. should be sanctioned, while people are being killed. I think ... banning participation in an event, etc. right this minute diverts attention from what is going on. And there's so much argument. Whereas financial sanctions, exile etc., can be done by governments and put in place immediately, but this, not so much.  And here I am talking about that!  You probably can see my point here, even if you disagree?

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43 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, BYU is also a significant institution of the Mormon church.  That's not really comparable to individual Russian athletes.  Anyway, I don't think any such efforts to ban or pressure international Russian athletes is going to alter Putin/Russia's actions one bit.

No, it wouldn’t alter Putin/Russia’s behavior in the short term, and I’m not sure much will, but a ten year ban for example from the IOC and FIFA would send shockwaves through the Russian public.

37 minutes ago, baxus said:

I have no idea how long it would take, I can only hope for a quick resolution with as close to no casualties as possible.

Sure, hope for that, but I wouldn’t bet on it. This has the potential to create a massive refugee crisis even if the invasion isn’t full scale and that will take ages to resolve.

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