Ukraine: It’s starting…

[DMC]

26 minutes ago, Fez said:

Assuming its true (big if in times like this), this is an interesting wrinkle

Makes one wonder what they thought they being sent to do.

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The people who will react that way will react similarly to any punishment the West tries to place on Russia.

K.  Really don't see what your point is.

[Week]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

St. Petersburg… right now.  A friend says they are chanting “We say no to war”:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496870591483330560?s=21

 

Many arrests going on in Russia.

[Tongue Stuck to Wall]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

Makes one wonder what they thought they being sent to do.

It was a reconnaissance platoon which surrendered, so about 20+ soldiers and a few scout vehicles.  Apparently they were told to cross the frontier to gather information per their specialty and would not be engaging in combat. (source: Ukraine's Commander in Chief, Armed Forces).

 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, Tongue Stuck to Wall said:

It was a reconnaissance platoon which surrendered, so about 20+ soldiers and a few scout vehicles.  Apparently they were told to cross the frontier to gather information per their specialty and would not be engaging in combat. (source: Ukraine's Commander in Chief, Armed Forces).

 

 

So… not nearly the event I thought it was.

[Zorral]

If the reports I've been seeing over the last year or so are true, that Putin's been stockpiling everything from foreign currency -- doubtless parked in 'off shore' banking congloms -- to refined fuel, etc. -- it will take a long time for sanctions to have any effect.  So.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Its really limited as to what the US (or NATO or the EU) can do apart from 'devastating sanctions', but apparently some are proposing massive cyberattacks to disrupt the invasion. Including tampering with railroad switches, for example, to interrupt resupply of the Russian forces. If so this would be a change from what the US has done so far, which is mainly counterterrorism based. intelligence gathering. Going on the offensive...not sure how that isnt active involvement in the conflict, but I guess the dividing line is committing hardware and people.

[Kalbear]

 

[Lord of Oop North]

Ukraine invasion: Russia's attack in maps

Explosions and strikes reported all across the country - north, east, south, west. This is certainly way beyond peacekeeping forces in the separatist regions

In pictures: Destruction and fear as war hits Ukraine

This is terrible. I hope we can help these people.

 

[Werthead]

Assessing all the news today through the blizzard of information and propaganda has been difficult but several sites and accounts seem to have done a good job of exorcising videos which are actually years old or of completely different conflicts.

Pulling things together (take some of this with a pinch of salt though), it looks like Ukraine was invaded from four confirmed axes, from the east through Donetsk, from the north-east towards Kharkiv, from the south via the Crimea and from the north via Belarus. A fifth entry point via an amphibious operation at Odesa has not been confirmed, or rather it's been confirmed and unconfirmed several times by different Ukrainian government sources. The attack through Donetsk seemed to start first and was also resisted heavily, with at least three Russian MBTs destroyed, causing a pause. Some confused reports that the Ukrainians had actually abandoned their forward positions which the Russians then bombarded to relatively little effect, and Ukrainian troops engaged Russian armour with AT weapons at close range. The Russians did push through but it took longer it and probably cost much more than they probably expected. The attack towards Kharkiv seems to have resulted in a battle outside the city. Confused reports of tanks on the streets of the city, but some saying they were Ukrainian tanks rather than Russian. No reports on that area in a while, but the Russians would be foolish to push immediately into the city without first encircling it. Kharkiv is huge (2 million people) and urban fighting there could be horrendous.

The attack from the Belarusian frontier seems to have been resisted near Chernobyl. Russian paratroopers landed at Hostomel Airport (aka Antonov Airport, for the Antonov factory there). CNN reporters were nearby and there seems to have been a confused sequence of events. Ukrainian forces counter-attacked and destroyed at least one Russian helicopter, possibly two. There may have been a second landing. Russian troops seemed to secure the airport but then came under artillery fire from Ukrainian positions. It appears the Russians are in control for the time being, and holding on for reinforcements racing down from the north. The airport is almost immediately outside Kyiv's north-western suburbs and uncomfortably close to the city.

According to Ukraine's President, the most concerning area is the south where the attack via Crimea overran Ukrainian positions almost instantly. What's happening down there is a mystery. The main concern would be a lightning advance on Kyiv from the south to link up with forces pushing down from the north, cutting Ukraine in two and putting a lot of Russian forces in the rear of the bulk of Ukraine's military concentrations, which are in the east of the country.

In the air, things seem to have gone as expected with Ukraine's modest fleet of aircraft seriously outmatched. One video purported to show a Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot bailing out and landing safely after his fighter was destroyed. The Ukrainians have claimed five to seven Russian aircraft destroyed by AA fire. The Russians only cop to one aircraft lost due to pilot error, so that remains unclear.

To add to the concern, Russian military forces in Transnistria, a breakaway republic of Moldova, have engaged in joint drills with local forces. Moldova has declared a state of emergency and is concerned that it could suffer a mini-Ukraine of its own, being very small with a very limited army. Moldova also booted out a pro-Putin, pro-Russian government a while back in favour  of a pro-EU, pro-NATO stance, and has been pursuing NATO and EU membership but not gotten there. Russia might be able to take Moldova with very limited forces.

Casualties so far unconfirmed but at least 40 Ukrainian soldiers dead and 10 civilians. Obviously the true figure will be many times that size.

The BBC reporting over 700 arrests at anti-war protests in 40 cities across Russia.

[Werthead]

 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Zorral said:

If the reports I've been seeing over the last year or so are true, that Putin's been stockpiling everything from foreign currency -- doubtless parked in 'off shore' banking congloms -- to refined fuel, etc. -- it will take a long time for sanctions to have any effect.  So.

The idea behind the sanctions aren't really to target Putin personally in such a manner but rather the oligarchs that compose his regime.  And indeed, many of the measures are designed to specifically target these individuals.

15 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Going on the offensive...not sure how that isnt active involvement in the conflict, but I guess the dividing line is committing hardware and people.

I'm not sure how Russia would react to US cyberattacks but I have no problem with them doing so if they can because, no, it's not the same as committing troops -- just as providing Ukraine arms isn't.  I suppose the only reticence would be Putin responding by trying to conduct his own cyberattacks on the US, but I think that ship's sailed.

[KingintheNorth4]

This isn't good. It's a short land route from there to Kyiv.

 

 

[Fez]

Are any of the non-meltdown reactors at Chernobyl still operating? I know for at least a while they still were. That's the only reason I can think of why Russia would bother attacking. Otherwise it seems much easier to just bypass the whole exclusion zone.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Werthead,

Thank you very much for that overview.  It’s better than anything I’ve seen anywhere else.

[Lord of Oop North]

7 minutes ago, Fez said:

Are any of the non-meltdown reactors at Chernobyl still operating? I know for at least a while they still were. That's the only reason I can think of why Russia would bother attacking. Otherwise it seems much easier to just bypass the whole exclusion zone.

It appears that it has been inactive since 2000.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/chernobyl/faqs

Quote

On December 15, 2000, the last reactor in operation at the Chernobyl site was shut down and the phase of decommissioning began. 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

10 minutes ago, Fez said:

Are any of the non-meltdown reactors at Chernobyl still operating? I know for at least a while they still were. That's the only reason I can think of why Russia would bother attacking. Otherwise it seems much easier to just bypass the whole exclusion zone.

Nope. 

They shut down in the 2010s I think.

[Kalbear]

The main reason to take Chernobyl (or the area) is that it is a very short, direct shot from there to Kyiv. 

[JGP]

39 minutes ago, Zorral said:

If the reports I've been seeing over the last year or so are true, that Putin's been stockpiling everything from foreign currency -- doubtless parked in 'off shore' banking congloms -- to refined fuel, etc. -- it will take a long time for sanctions to have any effect.  So.

Not necessarily, unless the international community continues hesitating to pull Russia's access to the SWIFT banking system. I have a vague understanding of why there's resistance in doing so, but Putin's sanction proofing or no, barring use of SWIIFT would have a near immediate chilling effect on Russian finances. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Looks like Putin's Blitzkrieg will be successful.

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

The main reason to take Chernobyl (or the area) is that it is a very short, direct shot from there to Kyiv. 

Well I'm no military planner but I'd think there'd be better staging areas than the site of a nuclear disaster.