Ukraine: It’s starting…

[Werthead]

NATO officials and US military analysts gloomily predicting that Kyiv will fall by tomorrow morning. Russian forces now on both sides of the Dnieper north of Kyiv, meaning taking the bridges are no longer a necessity. More optimistic projections have them reaching Kyiv but may not attack to try to avoid heavy casualties in urban fighting, instead asking the government to surrender to avoid civilian deaths.

[GrimTuesday]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@GrimTuesday

An interesting twitter thread discussing the Russian allegations that they are “removing Nazis”.

 

To be clear, the idea that Russia is actually going in Ukraine to get rid of the actual neo-nazis is horse shit, and that aspect is actually propaganda. Russia has no real interest in actually removing these elements and anyone who buys that is a moron. As I said before my worry is that if we're not clear eyed and honest about who some of these people are, they will be legitimized and will gain support. Ukraine already has a lot of actual Nazi collaborators who are lionized as national heroes, and if these neo nazi groups can draw a line between them and someone like Stepan Bandera, we could be looking at a ground swell of support for nationalist groups as we often see in times of national crisis.

[Makk]

1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

Hah, no it won't. 

China is giddy with seeing this. They get to destabilize the West, they get to see what a Western response would be to an invasion of Taiwan, they get more buddy-buddy with Russia, and they get to show the world how democracies are not equipped to deal with these things. 

I strongly feel you misunderstand their philosophy. Their entire argument about Taiwan comes down to sovereignty and that other countries should not interfere. Russia recognised Ukraine as  a separate sovereign nation. China has not done that with Taiwan (nor Taiwan with China).

China crave stability and how they are perceived on a global stage is extremely important to them. If they do support Russia in this, it is going to look extremely bad for them. This invasion is almost as unambiguously black and white as you can get.

 

6 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Literally, Trump said - TWICE - how smart and savvy Putin was for doing this. Pompeo said this just recently. Trump tells his base what to think. They don't tell him. 

I don't see why this should sway Biden's response at all. If voters are really this stupid nothing Biden does will ever reach them, he may as well ignore them completely.

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Makk said:

I strongly feel you misunderstand their philosophy. Their entire argument about Taiwan comes down to sovereignty and that other countries should not interfere. Russia recognised Ukraine as  a separate sovereign nation. China has not done that with Taiwan (nor Taiwan with China).

I can see a situation in which China argues that Russia was forced by unfair circumstances to recognise Ukrainian independence, had an economic gun to their head because of the situation in 1991 etc, it was under duress etc. China can easily spin this to support their own situation relatively easily.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Werthead,

Why are the Germans and Italians opposed to sanctioning via SWIFT?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Also those GOP drones also do the Ted Cruz thing.

Biden weak, that's why Russia invades. 

While also implying it wouldn'T have happened under the orange one.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead,

Why are the Germans and Italians opposed to sanctioning via SWIFT?

Coz it also hurts Western economies significantly. We are all for sanctions and shit. We just want them with little to no costs for ourselves.

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead,

Why are the Germans and Italians opposed to sanctioning via SWIFT?

German and some Italian lenders hold almost $30 billion of Russian debt. Cutting off SWIFT means halting all payments to them of that debt from Russian state and company repayments.

[mormont]

Is there any actual evidence that China are pleased about this invasion? You know, facts?

If so, they're unique as far as I can see. Pretty much every other government on Earth is perturbed at best, incandescent at worst. Not only about the invasion as such but the way Putin has gone about it. He's wrecked what international goodwill Russia had. He must have some benefit in mind that is (for his purposes) worth the cost but the idea that this is not a significant cost isn't a serious position to take.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, Werthead said:

German and some Italian lenders hold almost $30 billion of Russian debt. Cutting off SWIFT means halting all payments to them of that debt from Russian state and company repayments.

Can States not absorb that cost.  It seems that we (the West) need to hit Russia with everything we can economically so we don’t have to hit militarily.

[Maithanet]

China, from what I understand, has mixed feelings about this.  China is really big on national sovereignty.  They don't like other nations asking what is happening within their borders and they are (often, if not always) willing to extend that courtesy to other countries as well.  Thus Russia invading another nation with the plan of toppling or absorbing the government is not something the Chinese are very comfortable with.  While some people on this thread have insisted that Ukraine to Russia is somewhat comparable Taiwan to China, the Chinese do not see it that way.  China has never and will never recognize Taiwan and certainly didn't sign a treaty promising to respect it's borders. 

That said, Russia and China are allied in thier desire to overturn the current world order led by the US and Europe.  Russia is attempting to do just that.  China can see how the West reacts and plan their next moves on Taiwan accordingly.  In addition, Russia will have to hug China even closer on trade since they won't be trading with anyone else.  China gains all of this without risking a single soldier.  Long term they are probably the biggest winners of Putin's latest move. 

 

[Werthead]

That latter thread is startling.

Antiwar protests in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Volgogard (formerly Stalingrad), Nizhny Novgord, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Kaliningrad.

[sologdin]

Can States not absorb that cost

yeah, that was my first thought too--the state can indemnify the creditors on these notes through some sort of claim facility, and then the states advance subrogation claims as part of the war settlement.

[JGP]

@Ser Scot A Ellison An international embargo on Russian oil/petrochemical products would probably do the trick, but if you think oil and gas are expensive now... whew.  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

That latter thread is startling.

Antiwar protests in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Volgogard (formerly Stalingrad), Nizhny Novgord, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg and Kaliningrad.

God be with them all.  Grant them the strength to endure the violence that will be visited upon them.

With Russian troops engaged in Ukraine does this give protesters more freedom to act in Russia?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

@Ser Scot A Ellison An international embargo on Russian oil/petrochemical products would probably do the trick, but if you think oil and gas are expensive now... whew.  

Isn’t this what strategic reserves are for?

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

Fear, worry, sympathy, heartbreak, more fear. Many Hungarian have family and friends in Ukraine, part of which used to belong to Hungary before the world wars. The friends and relatives of these people are being called into the Ukrainian army to fight. Air strikes are happening so near to our border that it’s a natural instinct to wonder just how many days/weeks we have before the conflict spirals across said border, and what we will do then.

Sorry to hear all that.  When I was growing up,  I'd wake up to the latest tit for tat killing across the border.  It was shocking then but this?  I can barely imagine the experience.

[JGP]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Isn’t this what strategic reserves are for?

Kind of, but there's no reserve on earth that I'm aware of that'll insulate the oil market from the removal of Russia's BPD. Not arguing against, just pointing out what States would unfortunately have to consider going that route. If the World was more or less monolithic, I'd hope we'd be more than willing to take on the lion share of the burdens implicit with regime change in Russia, but... [spreads hands]  

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Time to lift all the Iran sanctions then? 

[Maithanet]

China would be delighted to be the only bidder for Russian oil and natural gas.  They could cut energy costs domestically while the rest of the world's fuel costs skyrocket.