Ukraine- War.

[Week]

 

Eta-- US sanctions against Putin incoming per Psaki.

[polishgenius]

11 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

In my view the priority is avoiding world war 3 and/or nuclear war in Europe, that’s what I hope the NATO intends to ensure via its actions and decisions. 

 

But if you take this too far- and 'don't put troops on the borders Putin might invade in case he invades' is definitely taking it too far for me - you're pretty much deciding that Russia can do whatever it likes, whenever, and we're not allowed to stop them, because nukes.  

[Kalbear]

25 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Is it restraint or just plain incompetence and bad soldiering?

I suspect it is restraint.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The White House has now sanctioned Putin personally (as well as Lavrov). That's a bit of a surprise.

I also don't get these rolling sanctions. The Biden Administration seems like it doesn't really know what it wants to do or how far it's willing to go.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

The White House has now sanctioned Putin personally (as well as Lavrov). That's a bit of a surprise.

I also don't get these rolling sanctions. The Biden Administration seems like it doesn't really know what it wants to do or how far it's willing to go.

Because they want the sanctions to be backed by all the allies. There are different opinions on what sanctions should be on now, and what should be kept in store. 

[Kalbear]

Well shit now it just got real

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Because they want the sanctions to be backed by all the allies. There are different opinions on what sanctions should be on now, and what should be kept in store. 

The EU sanctioned Putin hours ago. There's been a lack of coordination to say the least. And I think Biden in part is one of the more reluctant actors. 

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The White House has now sanctioned Putin personally (as well as Lavrov). That's a bit of a surprise.

I also don't get these rolling sanctions. The Biden Administration seems like it doesn't really know what it wants to do or how far it's willing to go.

The sanctions bit I get, since that relies on allies who have various priorities of their own. The part I don't get is stuff like the State Department saying that 'Russia is now a pariah" and then almost immediately saying "We hope to continue working with Russia on an Iranian deal." Which is it here? If your goal is to isolate Russia then isolate them.

[Werthead]

Assessing the overall course of today was harder than yesterday. It seems that Ukrainians have gotten much bolshier about sticking their smartphones out of the window to observe what's happening, resulting in a blizzard of information, which various sites and feeds had to sift through eliminating propaganda and distortions from both sides (lots of pro-Russian videos which seem to be using video game footage from various military simulators, for example).

The general thrust of the first day was reflected in a withering British intelligence assessment this morning: Russia failed to achieve almost any of their Day One military objectives beyond "crossing the border" (which, to be fair, is the most important one). Smashing through the Donbas in large numbers was not accomplished, Kyiv Airport was recaptured and Kharkiv resisted an attempt to cut it off and take it in the opening stages of the conflict. The failure to cut through the Donbas also seems to have resulted in insufficient Russian forces being available to march on Mariupol. Most striking to observers was the apparent failure of the Russian forces to engage and destroy the Ukrainian army's main strength east of the Dnieper.

Progress through the day seems to have focused on the approaches to Kyiv. The Russian failure to capture the airport yesterday fucked over their plan to use the airport to transport in larger numbers of ground troops and advance into Kyiv through sheer numbers before the Ukrainians could prepare defences. The Russians launched another attack this morning and the Ukrainians seemed to hold for an hour or two before eventually collapsing, after the Russians claim to have deployed 200 helicopters and additional paratroopers. Reports from the airport seem confused, but Ukrainian losses are put at 200, which the Russians could not shut up about, despite it being relatively small fry. Some feeling that this might be the largest single defeat the Russians have inflicted on the Ukrainians. The state of the airport is unclear, but some suggestions that the during the crossfire the airstrip was knocked out of commission. If it was properly shelled, it could be days before its operational again, but lighter damage could be repaired overnight.

That freed up Russian forces to head into northern Kyiv, but without the rapid reinforcements from the airport, it seems the Russian push was cautious, at least (some panicked driving as one AV drove over a car with someone in it - they survived - and another skidded around a corner like it was a superbike). Russian forces advancing down the opposite side of the Dnieper suffered another setback when they attacked Chernihiv and, in a familiar pattern, failed to take the city. Multiple Russian forces surrendered and a Ukrainian counterattack pushed them back from the city. A second Russian push seemed to successfully besiege the city by late afternoon, finally freeing up Russian forces to advance on Kyiv from the opposite side of the river.

West of the Dnieper, reports that the Ukrainians destroyed a Russian convoy and blew up the bridge over the Teteriv River at Ivankiv, which will complicate attempts to reinforce their troops in northern Kyiv.

The most gleeful, flag-waving moment for Ukraine was in the early morning when a Ukrainian missile battery scored a series of direct hits on Millerovo Airfield outside Rostov-on-Don, inside Russia. Hangers were seen on fire and a Sukhoi Su-30 was left burning on the tarmac. Additional aircraft may have been destroyed or damaged. The airbase was a staging ground for Russian air attacks in the east of Ukraine. The historic nature of this attack is striking: the last time a foreign power (as opposed to terror attacks or a civil conflict) successfully carried out an attack on Russian home soil was in 1944. Although symbolically cheering, and no doubt teeth-grindingly infuriating for Putin, the attack was not a gamechanger, as Russia is using several airbases to launch attacks involving dozens to low hundreds of aircraft.

British intelligence reports released to the public then suggested that by midday or so, Ukrainian forces had in some areas returned to the line of contact and were holding against further Russian attacks, a pretty jaw-dropping situation given the Russians should have blasted through the entire length of the line in the first hour of the invasion, not still be there halfway through the second day.

The south, which is where the Russians seemed to have the most success on the first day, crossing the Crimean border unopposed, also seemed to bog down, with Russian forces encountering heavy resistance in Kherson (vital as it prevents a land assault on Odesa), but apparently securing the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. This crossing is essential to allow the southern Russian force to link up with the troops advancing on Kyiv to the north. One fly in the ointment there is that a heavy Ukrainian defence has been mustered at Dnipro upriver, but taking the bridge allows Russian forces to attack Dnipro from both sides, if necessary. The Russian objective here seems confused, with some reports that they started crossing the river and then abruptly reversed and diverted eastwards, rather than west to outflank Kherson.

A major amphibious assault was then reported by CNN beginning just west of Mariupol, leading to the suggestion that perhaps the Crimean force was being diverted to support that landing and help take Mariupol to open up a safe naval landing route to bypass the Donbas, where fighting remains ongoing. The Russians confirmed a "counter-offensive" was underway in the Donbas led by local militia forces, which may explain why they don't seem to be getting very far.

In Russia itself, an unprecedented number of media outlets (even from state media), journalists and even YouTube personalities condemned the invasion - if mostly in restrained terms - or suggested it was an ill-advised idea. Russian markets and the ruble both fell dramatically on the first day of the invasion, sparking something of a run on the banks. Cash demand at Russian ATMs dramatically surged, leading to fears of an economic meltdown, although things have stabilised today.

On the international scene, the Pope has summoned the Russian ambassador to the Vatican - which is extremely unusual - and France has agreed to sell arms to Ukraine in a major chance in French official policy.

In possibly the most politically iffy moment of the day for Putin - if done extremely politely - Xi Jinping told Putin in a telephone call that Russia should resolve the crisis through dialogue. Then Foreign Minister Wang Yi, after discussions with European Foreign Ministers, said that all countries should "respect the integrity and territorial sovereignty of all states, including Ukraine," suggesting that China will not back any and all actions taking in Ukraine and there are limits. However, China has reiterated that it also believes Russia has legitimate security concerns.

8 hours ago, A wilding said:

Sure, the UK failed utterly in (and arguably completely betrayed or forget) its declared war aim of liberating Poland

But nonetheless they reacted strongly to Hitler's invasion. And it did not end well for Hitler.

In 1939 the UK did not have long-range bombers and certainly no fighters capable of reaching Poland. They could barely reach Germany. In 1944-45, Churchill and some other Allied war leaders, including Patton, urged that the liberation and democratisation of Eastern Europe be made a clear objective, with the Soviets forced to withdraw under nuclear threat if necessary, but Roosevelt and then Truman refused to back that play and basically let the Soviets occupy half the continent. There wasn't much that Britain and the barely-reconstituted France could do.

It is true that in 1939 France and Britain could have attacked Germany's western flank whilst it was tied down in Poland, sending troops into the Ruhr etc, but there was a great deal of timidity from both sides, and a reluctance by the French to abandon their fortified positions. Of course, those positions ended up being outflanked anyway, but they didn't know that would be achieved so easily.

[The Dragon Demands]

Quote

Of the things that have surprised me thus far, I thought we'd see heavier use of electronic warfare and cyber tools to disrupt Ukrainian command, control, and communications.

Oh there was a whole thing on this in New York Times magazine: the Ukrainian military switched to using analog, World War One era wire communications, specifically because they knew Russia would hit them with cyber-attacks.

Keep in mind that Ukraine has actually been having a low-level war with Russian-backed separatists for EIGHT YEARS, so they've had time to respond to their tactics. They had a spread of interviews with soldiers on the front line, and they showed them how they use WWI era wire communications: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/magazine/ukraine-war.html

 

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I suspect it is restraint.

I think it is restraint as well, but it is indicative of the unfavorable situation that Russia has put itself in.  Russia's stated goals are quite ambitious: destroy the Ukrainian military and replace the democratic government with one more Russia-friendly.  That government will have trouble remaining in power without direct military support from Russia, which means a continuing presence in the country.  Russia is gambling that if they keep Ukrainian casualties low, they can better contain anti-Russian sentiments, and it is willing to risk its own troops to do so. 

It is very hard to fight an offensive war while simultaneously trying to avoid civilian casualties.  The result thus far has been the Ukrainian forces being less overawed than many people expected, which increases both the will and ability to resist.  And if Russia abandons this restraint, then nobody is going to much care that they held back the heavy weapons on the first few days. 

[Kalbear]

@Werthead, you missed your calling. You should be spreading this far and wide. Great work.

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Do you live in what used to be Transylvania?

Yes, in Maramures county. I went to school to Satu Mare tho, a city just 5 kilometers away from the border of the country. 

[Maithanet]

11 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Assessing the overall course of today was harder than yesterday.

This is really good stuff Wert.  I really appreciate your contributions to these threads. 

[SeanF]

15 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Assessing the overall course of today was harder than yesterday. It seems that Ukrainians have gotten much bolshier about sticking their smartphones out of the window to observe what's happening, resulting in a blizzard of information, which various sites and feeds had to sift through eliminating propaganda and distortions from both sides (lots of pro-Russian videos which seem to be using video game footage from various military simulators, for example).

The general thrust of the first day was reflected in a withering British intelligence assessment this morning: Russia failed to achieve almost any of their Day One military objectives beyond "crossing the border" (which, to be fair, is the most important one). Smashing through the Donbas in large numbers was not accomplished, Kyiv Airport was recaptured and Kharkiv resisted an attempt to cut it off and take it in the opening stages of the conflict. The failure to cut through the Donbas also seems to have resulted in insufficient Russian forces being available to march on Mariupol. Most striking to observers was the apparent failure of the Russian forces to engage and destroy the Ukrainian army's main strength east of the Dnieper.

Progress through the day seems to have focused on the approaches to Kyiv. The Russian failure to capture the airport yesterday fucked over their plan to use the airport to transport in larger numbers of ground troops and advance into Kyiv through sheer numbers before the Ukrainians could prepare defences. The Russians launched another attack this morning and the Ukrainians seemed to hold for an hour or two before eventually collapsing, after the Russians claim to have deployed 200 helicopters and additional paratroopers. Reports from the airport seem confused, but Ukrainian losses are put at 200, which the Russians could not shut up about, despite it being relatively small fry. Some feeling that this might be the largest single defeat the Russians have inflicted on the Ukrainians. The state of the airport is unclear, but some suggestions that the during the crossfire the airstrip was knocked out of commission. If it was properly shelled, it could be days before its operational again, but lighter damage could be repaired overnight.

That freed up Russian forces to head into northern Kyiv, but without the rapid reinforcements from the airport, it seems the Russian push was cautious, at least (some panicked driving as one AV drove over a car with someone in it - they survived - and another skidded around a corner like it was a superbike). Russian forces advancing down the opposite side of the Dnieper suffered another setback when they attacked Chernihiv and, in a familiar pattern, failed to take the city. Multiple Russian forces surrendered and a Ukrainian counterattack pushed them back from the city. A second Russian push seemed to successfully besiege the city by late afternoon, finally freeing up Russian forces to advance on Kyiv from the opposite side of the river.

West of the Dnieper, reports that the Ukrainians destroyed a Russian convoy and blew up the bridge over the Teteriv River at Ivankiv, which will complicate attempts to reinforce their troops in northern Kyiv.

The most gleeful, flag-waving moment for Ukraine was in the early morning when a Ukrainian missile battery scored a series of direct hits on Millerovo Airfield outside Rostov-on-Don, inside Russia. Hangers were seen on fire and a Sukhoi Su-30 was left burning on the tarmac. Additional aircraft may have been destroyed or damaged. The airbase was a staging ground for Russian air attacks in the east of Ukraine. The historic nature of this attack is striking: the last time a foreign power (as opposed to terror attacks or a civil conflict) successfully carried out an attack on Russian home soil was in 1944. Although symbolically cheering, and no doubt teeth-grindingly infuriating for Putin, the attack was not a gamechanger, as Russia is using several airbases to launch attacks involving dozens to low hundreds of aircraft.

British intelligence reports released to the public then suggested that by midday or so, Ukrainian forces had in some areas returned to the line of contact and were holding against further Russian attacks, a pretty jaw-dropping situation given the Russians should have blasted through the entire length of the line in the first hour of the invasion, not still be there halfway through the second day.

The south, which is where the Russians seemed to have the most success on the first day, crossing the Crimean border unopposed, also seemed to bog down, with Russian forces encountering heavy resistance in Kherson (vital as it prevents a land assault on Odesa), but apparently securing the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. This crossing is essential to allow the southern Russian force to link up with the troops advancing on Kyiv to the north. One fly in the ointment there is that a heavy Ukrainian defence has been mustered at Dnipro upriver, but taking the bridge allows Russian forces to attack Dnipro from both sides, if necessary. The Russian objective here seems confused, with some reports that they started crossing the river and then abruptly reversed and diverted eastwards, rather than west to outflank Kherson.

A major amphibious assault was then reported by CNN beginning just west of Mariupol, leading to the suggestion that perhaps the Crimean force was being diverted to support that landing and help take Mariupol to open up a safe naval landing route to bypass the Donbas, where fighting remains ongoing. The Russians confirmed a "counter-offensive" was underway in the Donbas led by local militia forces, which may explain why they don't seem to be getting very far.

In Russia itself, an unprecedented number of media outlets (even from state media), journalists and even YouTube personalities condemned the invasion - if mostly in restrained terms - or suggested it was an ill-advised idea. Russian markets and the ruble both fell dramatically on the first day of the invasion, sparking something of a run on the banks. Cash demand at Russian ATMs dramatically surged, leading to fears of an economic meltdown, although things have stabilised today.

On the international scene, the Pope has summoned the Russian ambassador to the Vatican - which is extremely unusual - and France has agreed to sell arms to Ukraine in a major chance in French official policy.

In possibly the most politically iffy moment of the day for Putin - if done extremely politely - Xi Jinping told Putin in a telephone call that Russia should resolve the crisis through dialogue. Then Foreign Minister Wang Yi, after discussions with European Foreign Ministers, said that all countries should "respect the integrity and territorial sovereignty of all states, including Ukraine," suggesting that China will not back any and all actions taking in Ukraine and there are limits. However, China has reiterated that it also believes Russia has legitimate security concerns.

In 1939 the UK did not have long-range bombers and certainly no fighters capable of reaching Poland. They could barely reach Germany. In 1944-45, Churchill and some other Allied war leaders, including Patton, urged that the liberation and democratisation of Eastern Europe be made a clear objective, with the Soviets forced to withdraw under nuclear threat if necessary, but Roosevelt and then Truman refused to back that play and basically let the Soviets occupy half the continent. There wasn't much that Britain and the barely-reconstituted France could do.

It is true that in 1939 France and Britain could have attacked Germany's western flank whilst it was tied down in Poland, sending troops into the Ruhr etc, but there was a great deal of timidity from both sides, and a reluctance by the French to abandon their fortified positions. Of course, those positions ended up being outflanked anyway, but they didn't know that would be achieved so easily.

Putin is facing a situation where he has to use extreme brutality, in order to win, but where extreme brutality will be unpopular with many Russians, as well as the rest of the world.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

12 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The EU sanctioned Putin hours ago. There's been a lack of coordination to say the least. And I think Biden in part is one of the more reluctant actors. 

Possibly with regards to SWIFT, but I think Germany and (to a lesser degree) Italy are more  opposed to that one.

The Germans are afraid of not being able to buy fuel from Russia without that avenue of transfering payments.

The US has the problem, that if they got Russia off SWIFT, that might lead to the Chinese CIPS replacing it, and thus the US $ losing its status as the leading currency on the international stage, thus giving China way more power.

 

Talking about China. If you want to know, you could really bring Puting to heel. That'd be Xi. If you get China onboard, then Puting will be racint to the negotiating table rather sooner than later.

[The Dragon Demands]

It's the end of Day 2...and the Ukrainian airforce is still functional?

Or is it still functional? I don't see confirmation.

[Zorral]

Despite my best efforts I can't stop the scrolling through sites for news, despite knowing the fog of war -- for good, particularly the things I want desperately to believe,  or bad, particularly the things I desperately don't want to have happened or to happen -- requires healthy levels of  "let's wait and see," about anything reported -- and particularly toward any analysis by so many of the day-old Ukraine and Putin experts.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/western-powers-have-realised-russia-is-largely-immune-to-sanctions-ukraine-putin

"Western powers have realised Russia is largely immune to sanctions
Analysis: Only the financial equivalent of unleashing a nuclear arsenal will dent Russia’s foreign assets war chest"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/25/russia-ukraine-invasion-latest-news-live-updates-russian-war-vladimir-putin-explosions-bombing-invades-kyiv#block-62193d3a8f08219c41a72be2

"Anonymous announced on Twitter today that they had reportedly hacked the database of the Russian Ministry of Defence website, breaching and leaking the private data."

Quote

 

From the Anonymous Twitter account:

JUST IN: Hacktivist group #Anonymous has successfully breached and leaked the database of the Russian Ministry of Defence website | mil[.]ru |.

In the same tweet, the group also posted screenshots of the reported data and provided a link where users could access it.

(@YourAnonTV)
JUST IN: Hacktivist group #Anonymous has successfully breached and leaked the database of the Russian Ministry of Defence website | mil[.]ru |.

February 25, 2022
Russia Today, the country’s state-sponsored media source, confirmed that they had experienced a cyberattack following a “cyber war” declaration from Anonymous after a request for cyber defense volunteers from the Ukrainian government: “After the statement by Anonymous, RT’s websites became the subject of massive DDoS attacks from some 100 million devices, mostly based in the US. Due to the attacks there might be temporary website access limitations for some users, yet RT is promptly resolving these issues.”

Ukrainian officials, in turn, said today that they have also experienced hacks, but from Belarus, targeting the private email addresses of Ukrainian military personnel “and related individuals,” reported Reuters.

Russia partially restricts access to Facebook to ‘protect Russian media’
 Read more

 

 

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, The Dragon Demands said:

It's the end of Day 2...and the Ukrainian airforce is still functional?

Or is it still functional? I don't see confirmation.

The Ukranian Air Force was flying sorties in multiple locations on Day 2.  Russian forces appear to be trying to capture or knock out remaining airfields in Western Ukraine, so we'll see if they are still able to operate tomorrow.  Regardless, Day 2 is still one more day than I would have expected. 

[Werthead]

NATO has activated its emergency rapid deployment programme, consisting of a rapid reaction force totalling 40,000 troops, pilots and naval crew, and will send additional forces to Eastern Europe. Germany has also sent additional Eurofighters to Romania to bolster their air defences (to the tune of six Eurofighters, but unless Russia deploys its latest Su-57s, that's still a reasonable force). 7,000 additional US troops already in Europe will be deployed to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania (potentially doubling the NATO military force in Estonia, just 80km from St. Petersburg), and unspecified new forces will be sent from the US to Germany.

Some indications that NATO is coordinating three carrier groups operating in the Mediterranean which could be activated as part of the taskforce: the USS Harry S. Truman, the Charles de Gaulle and HMS Prince of Wales, which is currently serving as NATO's maritime flagship. The Prince of Wales is not operating its F-35Bs at the moment as they are being refreshed, but available F-35Bs from the British inventory could be flown out to join the carrier group.

Russia has said that Sweden and Finland joining NATO is a red line and will result in military, political and economic reprisals from Russia. In a statement this evening, President Biden seemed to include Sweden and Finland in his promise to defend NATO territory, but that may have been a misquote.

Some NATO and former NATO generals and officials noting that Russia's progress in Ukraine has been mind-bogglingly poor given its overwhelming superiority in numbers and material. Some comments to the effect that NATO's fears of fighting a conventional war against a professional and well-drilled Russian army with formidable training and morale had effectively vanished overnight. However, some caution that Russia may be trying to avoid large-scale civilian casualties so has not deployed cluster bombs and large AoE munitions.

The OECD has also terminated Russia's process to become a member, which would perhaps be more impactful if the process hadn't already been frozen in 2014, but there you go.

The diplomatic angle is interesting. Russia demanded that Ukraine's military surrender as a precondition to peace talks, then changed its minds and offered to hold talks in Minsk without preconditions (possibly as a sop to the Chinese). Ukraine suggested it would be happy to do that and offered a ceasefire. Then the Russians seemed to faff and then claimed that the Ukrainians had turned down peace talks unless they moved to Warsaw, which seems confused (all previous peace talks related to the crisis have also happened in Minsk, despite Belarus being Putin's lapdog). The Russians then claimed it was a ruse to set up missile systems inside residential districts in Kyiv to use civilians as human shields and seemed to call the whole thing off.

Quote

 

It's the end of Day 2...and the Ukrainian airforce is still functional?

Or is it still functional? I don't see confirmation.

 

Footage from Kyiv showing a Ukrainian MiG-29 engaging and apparently destroying a Russian Sukhoi over the city, so yes. Which given that current Russian Sukhois have been upgraded and the Ukranian MiGs are all but flying in ~1991 trim, is some impressive fucking feat (this is the sort of thing that happens in every mission of the Ace Combat video game series, but not real life). The pilot is called "the Ghost of Kyiv" and has been credited with six kills, which seems to be hyperbole of the highest order (Ukraine is only claiming six fixed-wing aircraft kills, at least two from ground fire, in total, and British sources have only confirmed three), but what the hell.