Ukraine- War.

[RhaenysBee]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

You’d prefer a Russian invasion to deterring a Russian invasion?

Neither, I would prefer peace.
And please realize that I live in a country that was invaded by the USSR for 45 years. I do not prefer a Russian invasion of any place. 

59 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 

But if you take this too far- and 'don't put troops on the borders Putin might invade in case he invades' is definitely taking it too far for me - you're pretty much deciding that Russia can do whatever it likes, whenever, and we're not allowed to stop them, because nukes.  

No, I’m putting faith in global powers to find means to reestablish and preserve peace that don’t include military engagement. Because I’m idealistic and naive enough to want to believe that war isn’t the only way to achieve peace. 

[The Dragon Demands]

I saw that video, but experts must have been able to confirm from profile that it was indeed a Ukrainian MiG taking out a more advanced Russian Sukhoi which...holy christ, that's like something out of Faster Than the Speed of Love:
 

 

[Werthead]

To be fair to China, I get the impression they are becoming seriously alarmed that Russia has unified a formerly creaking and leaky Western alliance into a rock-solid force which is frankly terrifying in its utter military power and also that Russia is making itself look foolish in failing taking down an enemy with a fraction of its own power. They are building diplomatic off-ramps for the Russians to take with alacrity and seem to be very gradually (and from a very low base) suggesting that Russia explore those off-ramps more firmly.

The next few hours will easily be the most crucial of the conflict so far. If Russian forces can punch through Kyiv's northern districts and reach the city centre and capture or neutralise the government, Russia can end the war - if only in a George W. Bush "mission accomplished" moment - tonight or tomorrow.

If they can't, and if Ukraine can hold out a few more days, then the calls for Russia to abandon the campaign will become immense. What could be powerful if someone likes Finland suggests an initiative like a joint Finnish-Ukrainian pledge not to join NATO for ten years in return for security guarantees from Russia to last the same amount of time etc. The question will be to what degree Putin is willing to accept Ukraine not being in its orbit, but also not being in NATO either. If it is willing to accept Ukraine as 100% independent from both blocs, that could work.

In the last few minutes, Ukraine has said it remains open to negotiations and has reopened lines of communication with the Russians. The Ukrainian coastal city of Melitopol is now under attack as well. The city is located on the Black Sea between the Crimean frontier and Mariupol, and may have been attacked either by the forces advancing from the Crimea or by forces from the amphibious landing nearby. The Russians seem to have blown up the local hospital's (very hopefully evacuated) oncology department, perhaps fearing the Ukrainians are  weaponising cancer against them.

 

[The Dragon Demands]

I also think the "Ghost of Kyiv" is an exaggeration - in that it's more likely that four separate Ukrainian planes individually took out one Russian plane each.  But "collectively" the Ghost of Kyiv is real, in a sense: I'm sitting here slack-jawed that we have video of an OPERATIONAL Ukrainian air force contesting the skies with Russian jets and actually shooting some of them down. This isn't some hick micro-state in the Caucasus, I hope Putin bit off more than he can chew.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

45 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Assessing the overall course of today was harder than yesterday. It seems that Ukrainians have gotten much bolshier about sticking their smartphones out of the window to observe what's happening, resulting in a blizzard of information, which various sites and feeds had to sift through eliminating propaganda and distortions from both sides (lots of pro-Russian videos which seem to be using video game footage from various military simulators, for example).

The general thrust of the first day was reflected in a withering British intelligence assessment this morning: Russia failed to achieve almost any of their Day One military objectives beyond "crossing the border" (which, to be fair, is the most important one). Smashing through the Donbas in large numbers was not accomplished, Kyiv Airport was recaptured and Kharkiv resisted an attempt to cut it off and take it in the opening stages of the conflict. The failure to cut through the Donbas also seems to have resulted in insufficient Russian forces being available to march on Mariupol. Most striking to observers was the apparent failure of the Russian forces to engage and destroy the Ukrainian army's main strength east of the Dnieper.

Progress through the day seems to have focused on the approaches to Kyiv. The Russian failure to capture the airport yesterday fucked over their plan to use the airport to transport in larger numbers of ground troops and advance into Kyiv through sheer numbers before the Ukrainians could prepare defences. The Russians launched another attack this morning and the Ukrainians seemed to hold for an hour or two before eventually collapsing, after the Russians claim to have deployed 200 helicopters and additional paratroopers. Reports from the airport seem confused, but Ukrainian losses are put at 200, which the Russians could not shut up about, despite it being relatively small fry. Some feeling that this might be the largest single defeat the Russians have inflicted on the Ukrainians. The state of the airport is unclear, but some suggestions that the during the crossfire the airstrip was knocked out of commission. If it was properly shelled, it could be days before its operational again, but lighter damage could be repaired overnight.

That freed up Russian forces to head into northern Kyiv, but without the rapid reinforcements from the airport, it seems the Russian push was cautious, at least (some panicked driving as one AV drove over a car with someone in it - they survived - and another skidded around a corner like it was a superbike). Russian forces advancing down the opposite side of the Dnieper suffered another setback when they attacked Chernihiv and, in a familiar pattern, failed to take the city. Multiple Russian forces surrendered and a Ukrainian counterattack pushed them back from the city. A second Russian push seemed to successfully besiege the city by late afternoon, finally freeing up Russian forces to advance on Kyiv from the opposite side of the river.

West of the Dnieper, reports that the Ukrainians destroyed a Russian convoy and blew up the bridge over the Teteriv River at Ivankiv, which will complicate attempts to reinforce their troops in northern Kyiv.

The most gleeful, flag-waving moment for Ukraine was in the early morning when a Ukrainian missile battery scored a series of direct hits on Millerovo Airfield outside Rostov-on-Don, inside Russia. Hangers were seen on fire and a Sukhoi Su-30 was left burning on the tarmac. Additional aircraft may have been destroyed or damaged. The airbase was a staging ground for Russian air attacks in the east of Ukraine. The historic nature of this attack is striking: the last time a foreign power (as opposed to terror attacks or a civil conflict) successfully carried out an attack on Russian home soil was in 1944. Although symbolically cheering, and no doubt teeth-grindingly infuriating for Putin, the attack was not a gamechanger, as Russia is using several airbases to launch attacks involving dozens to low hundreds of aircraft.

British intelligence reports released to the public then suggested that by midday or so, Ukrainian forces had in some areas returned to the line of contact and were holding against further Russian attacks, a pretty jaw-dropping situation given the Russians should have blasted through the entire length of the line in the first hour of the invasion, not still be there halfway through the second day.

The south, which is where the Russians seemed to have the most success on the first day, crossing the Crimean border unopposed, also seemed to bog down, with Russian forces encountering heavy resistance in Kherson (vital as it prevents a land assault on Odesa), but apparently securing the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. This crossing is essential to allow the southern Russian force to link up with the troops advancing on Kyiv to the north. One fly in the ointment there is that a heavy Ukrainian defence has been mustered at Dnipro upriver, but taking the bridge allows Russian forces to attack Dnipro from both sides, if necessary. The Russian objective here seems confused, with some reports that they started crossing the river and then abruptly reversed and diverted eastwards, rather than west to outflank Kherson.

A major amphibious assault was then reported by CNN beginning just west of Mariupol, leading to the suggestion that perhaps the Crimean force was being diverted to support that landing and help take Mariupol to open up a safe naval landing route to bypass the Donbas, where fighting remains ongoing. The Russians confirmed a "counter-offensive" was underway in the Donbas led by local militia forces, which may explain why they don't seem to be getting very far.

In Russia itself, an unprecedented number of media outlets (even from state media), journalists and even YouTube personalities condemned the invasion - if mostly in restrained terms - or suggested it was an ill-advised idea. Russian markets and the ruble both fell dramatically on the first day of the invasion, sparking something of a run on the banks. Cash demand at Russian ATMs dramatically surged, leading to fears of an economic meltdown, although things have stabilised today.

On the international scene, the Pope has summoned the Russian ambassador to the Vatican - which is extremely unusual - and France has agreed to sell arms to Ukraine in a major chance in French official policy.

In possibly the most politically iffy moment of the day for Putin - if done extremely politely - Xi Jinping told Putin in a telephone call that Russia should resolve the crisis through dialogue. Then Foreign Minister Wang Yi, after discussions with European Foreign Ministers, said that all countries should "respect the integrity and territorial sovereignty of all states, including Ukraine," suggesting that China will not back any and all actions taking in Ukraine and there are limits. However, China has reiterated that it also believes Russia has legitimate security concerns.

In 1939 the UK did not have long-range bombers and certainly no fighters capable of reaching Poland. They could barely reach Germany. In 1944-45, Churchill and some other Allied war leaders, including Patton, urged that the liberation and democratisation of Eastern Europe be made a clear objective, with the Soviets forced to withdraw under nuclear threat if necessary, but Roosevelt and then Truman refused to back that play and basically let the Soviets occupy half the continent. There wasn't much that Britain and the barely-reconstituted France could do.

It is true that in 1939 France and Britain could have attacked Germany's western flank whilst it was tied down in Poland, sending troops into the Ruhr etc, but there was a great deal of timidity from both sides, and a reluctance by the French to abandon their fortified positions. Of course, those positions ended up being outflanked anyway, but they didn't know that would be achieved so easily.

Interesting.  If accurate (I appreciate the information) it could provide corroboration for Ukrainian claims of 80 MBTs and hundreds of APCs destroyed along with thousands of Russian troops.

And again thank you.  I echo Kalbear.  You paint a discernible picture of the entire conflict incredibly well.

[The Dragon Demands]

I seriously wonder if the Ukrainian president should withdraw from Kyiv, if only because it looks like the Russians won't totally overwhelm the rest of the country. Forces massing at Dnipro on the river in the middle, or even move the government to Lviv in the west. If they take out his government it's the capture of the king, game over. And yes it would be a symbolic loss to lose the capital. But their progress has become bogged down so much it might make sense to make plans to personally withdraw him to wherever their army is strongest, as the Russian advances is slowing. I don't know.

[Daeron the Daring]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

He is president, not dictator. He doesn't have direct command of municipal or regional governments. He has gone to Budapest to try and discuss means of improving the situation. He is limited, of course, in what he can do according to the decisions of the Ukrainian parliament. 

I looked over his Wikipedia page, and that of his party. and I can't see anything that I would describe as "ultranationalist" or "fascist". The most I could say is that reducing the power of oligarchs is something most in the liberal world see as a positive, not a negative, thing, so long as it's done through appropriate and legal means.

ETA: He has also spoken in favor of improved laws protecting minority rights.

This guy was woted for by 70% of people,more than half of the parliamentary seats are filled with people from his own party. Technically speaking, he could've done anything good he just wanted. Despite this, there is nothing. Actions speak louder. His party is openly built on a socialist basis, and claims itself to be ukrano-centric. Didn't u read that part? The ukrainian people pretty much showed way before shit went crazy that they had enough of him and wouldn't ever reelect him. He lied about his campaign, his anticorruption methods are considered to be bad jokes (literally) and on top of that does the same thing he often swore to destroy. There were efforts, you say. Where did he left the achievements? This guy was meant to change the cuntry, instead he incorporated his gang into the corrupt system of Ukraine. Nothing changed. He is a hero to western media, and a bane to his own people.

But hey, he supports LGBT communities, no? How good, how progressive,  how about fixing the lives of millions of people? Something he could've done in a week. Ukranisation of the population wouldn't even realise something changed if it wasn't told about it. 

Now of course, western media shouldn't talk about this. It's plain obvious why they shouldn't, I'm not stupid. Noone would in their place. But putting someone among the good guys just because he is friends with some good guys isn't working. The enemy of my enemy could be my friend, but that friend can still be an asshole. As if it never happened, seriously. Maybe take another look at his Wikipedia page and read the whole thing, I really can't say anything more.

[polishgenius]

11 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Ukrainian coastal city of Melitopol is now under attack as well.

 

A guy I follow from Melitopol - not a close friend but a real person off boxing twitter not just some dude who's popped up from nowhere- claims the city's already under Russian control. 

[Jaenara Belarys]

15 minutes ago, The Dragon Demands said:

I saw that video, but experts must have been able to confirm from profile that it was indeed a Ukrainian MiG taking out a more advanced Russian Sukhoi which...holy christ, that's like something out of Faster Than the Speed of Love:

The MiG-29 is one of the best dogfighters in the world, is it not? (with proper controls HUD and such). Still, that's pretty darn impressive. 

[Zorral]

The picture of Zelensky received by the rest of the world must be infuriating to Putin & Co.  He's coming through loud and clear, as Josh Marshall outlines, as a hero, and a likely martyr to justice and independence.

[Ran]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Footage from Kyiv showing a Ukrainian MiG-29 engaging and apparently destroying a Russian Sukhoi over the city

Said footage is not real -- it's  machinima from Digital Combat Simulator, made in honor of the alleged "Ghost of Kyiv", who is (surely) an urban legend. But then someone re-recorded it on a potato camera and suddenly it looks quite convincing.

 

[Werthead]

1 minute ago, polishgenius said:

A guy I follow from Melitopol - not a close friend but a real person off boxing twitter not just some dude who's popped up from nowhere- claims the city's already under Russian control. 

I wouldn't be surprised at that. Melitopol is pretty small, within easy striking distance of the sea and Russian forces could have attacked from two directions simultaneously. It surrendering is a fairly logical move, and not a costly one to Ukraine because there's not much hope of resupplying or retaking it.

That's actually a strong strategic move for Russia, it effectively gives them control of the coastal strip from Crimea to Mariupol. I can't see Mariupol holding, and there's Sky News footage showing the hospitals overwhelmed with casualties. Once Mariupol goes, that's the entire Black Sea coast east of the Dnieper gone. Fuck.

Quote

Said footage is not real -- it's  machinima from Digital Combat Simulator, made in honor of the alleged "Ghost of Kyiv", who is (surely) an urban legend. But then someone re-recorded it on a potato camera and suddenly it looks quite convincing.

Well, there we go. Looks like both sides are getting in on the fake action (I think a lot of the faked footage is using ARMA III).

[SeanF]

48 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Possibly with regards to SWIFT, but I think Germany and (to a lesser degree) Italy are more  opposed to that one.

The Germans are afraid of not being able to buy fuel from Russia without that avenue of transfering payments.

The US has the problem, that if they got Russia off SWIFT, that might lead to the Chinese CIPS replacing it, and thus the US $ losing its status as the leading currency on the international stage, thus giving China way more power.

 

Talking about China. If you want to know, you could really bring Puting to heel. That'd be Xi. If you get China onboard, then Puting will be racint to the negotiating table rather sooner than later.

I’ve read suggestions that keeping Russia within SWIFT facilitates capital flight out of Russia.

[lessthanluke]

12 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 

A guy I follow from Melitopol - not a close friend but a real person off boxing twitter not just some dude who's popped up from nowhere- claims the city's already under Russian control. 

Melitopol is where I was on about earlier. Quaint little city. One of my Strongman friends lives there and told me earlier there is widespread fighting.

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Oh there was a whole thing on this in New York Times magazine: the Ukrainian military switched to using analog, World War One era wire communications, specifically because they knew Russia would hit them with cyber-attacks.

Keep in mind that Ukraine has actually been having a low-level war with Russian-backed separatists for EIGHT YEARS, so they've had time to respond to their tactics. They had a spread of interviews with soldiers on the front line, and they showed them how they use WWI era wire communications: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/16/magazine/ukraine-war.html

 

So what you're saying is that Ukraine Battlestar Galactica'd this shit?

Also, I've read another article that they put out a call for underground hackers to join up and help defend critical infrastructure from cyberattacks as well as help the armed forces with offensive cyber warfare.

[Lord of Oop North]

3 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So what you're saying is that Ukraine Battlestar Galactica'd this shit?

Also, I've read another article that they put out a call for underground hackers to join up and help defend critical infrastructure from cyberattacks as well as help the armed forces with offensive cyber warfare.

The Anonymous hacker collective apparently declared "cyber war" on Russia earlier today.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Its true, Anonymous has claimed to have hacked the Russian MoD website

Quote

Anonymous announced on Twitter today that they had reportedly hacked the database of the Russian Ministry of Defence website, breaching and leaking the private data.

In the same tweet, the group also posted screenshots of the reported data and provided a link where users could access it.

Per the Guardian

[The Dragon Demands]

32 minutes ago, Ran said:

Said footage is not real -- it's  machinima from Digital Combat Simulator, made in honor of the alleged "Ghost of Kyiv", who is (surely) an urban legend. But then someone re-recorded it on a potato camera and suddenly it looks quite convincing.

 

ack

[Varysblackfyre321]

58 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

No, I’m putting faith in global powers to find means to reestablish and preserve peace that don’t include military engagement. Because I’m idealistic and naive enough to want to believe that war isn’t the only way to achieve peace. 

Being prepared to defend yourself and your allies through force can also a be deterrent to war.

 

[The Dragon Demands]

19 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So what you're saying is that Ukraine Battlestar Galactica'd this shit?

Also, I've read another article that they put out a call for underground hackers to join up and help defend critical infrastructure from cyberattacks as well as help the armed forces with offensive cyber warfare.

As much as possible. Little things like "maybe we shouldn't be using cell phones if they use them to track our movements". They've been facing Russian cyberattacks and signals interference for 8 years in Donbas, it's not going to surprise them anymore. 

Quote

NYTimes:

"Back at the company headquarters, which hunkered in a bombed-out Soviet-era apartment building, with the truck still burning, a group of men played cards. A press officer took photographs — not of the smoldering wreckage yards away but of a soldier sitting at a table handling, of all things, an antique crank-powered field telephone. I seriously wondered whether a movie was being filmed until I learned that the phone wasn’t an antique. Or rather it was, but a functioning one. The army installed the old phones after learning that the enemy had the use of high-end Russian electronic surveillance. I would see the wooden-and-brass boxes and their spools of black wire stretching through trenches up and down the front."