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Ukraine- War.


Ser Scot A Ellison

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39 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

This guy was woted for by 70% of people,more than half of the parliamentary seats are filled with people from his own party.

That also still doesn’t make him dictator.

Also, no policy that’s been brought warrants him to be called a fascist who deserves life imprisonment.

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This analysis is pretty good.

All I can say is that the body of Georgy Zhukov must be spinning in its grave so fast it could power Russia for the next ten years.

Russian infantry refused to disembark troop-carriers to screen Russian armour.

That's why so many Russian tanks have been left as burning heaps of junk, there was no anti-infantry fire to disperse Ukrainian AT units before they got into firing range. That's ridiculous.

The bit about para-dropping special forces into an enemy AA-dominated space (as exemplified by five of the choppers in the operation being blown out of the sky in the process) without clearing the area first and then wondering why they were all killed or captured is also very cogent.

Who the fuck is planning this operation? This is stuff the Russians knew how to do before Barbarossa was halfway over, and that was eighty years ago.

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1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Yes, in Maramures county. I went to school to Satu Mare tho, a city just 5 kilometers away from the border of the country. 

I'm from Alba Iulia. But I moved to the US in '03, so definitely not in tune with today's politics in Romania. I occasionally pay attention. How prepared is Romania for refugees?

On the subject of Zelenskyy, you call him a fascist but that he is operating on a socialist platform. hmm... He has struck at the oligarch class from what I can tell. But it is a sad fact of that part of the world, Romania, Ukraine etc. that the people in power have continuously abused their power regardless of party doctrine. Still he's been president for short of 3 years. Putin has held Russia's reigns for 22 and it's clear what he is.

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Unconfirmed video from outside Kherson (on the south-western side of the country, near the mouth of the Dnieper). Claims that part of the Russian Crimean force advancing on Kherson was destroyed by Ukrainian counter-attacks.

 

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The Russians are running into logjams everywhere apart from the Black Sea coast and in the north, and it looks like Russia will make a major play for Kyiv overnight. They have forces advancing into northern Kyiv from both sides of the Dnieper, which is important because it means they don't need to rush to take the bridges. The Russian attack should have come last night or early today, but the holding action at the airport, blowing the bridge and the failure to take Chernihiv all slowed down their advance. It's unclear if they have recovered from that enough to mount a full assault on the capital, but the assumption is they have.

It looks like some of the heaviest concentrations of special forces, armour and armoured vehicles are already in Kyiv or are just outside. Ranged against them are an unknown number of Ukrainian troops and vehicles. Fortunately it looks like the delays allowed Ukrainian regular forces and vehicles to stream into the city from outside, otherwise the Russians would have succeeded in reaching the city with the bulk of its regular forces out of position.

What is key will be the effectiveness of Ukrainian militia and citizens equipped with weapons. If they emerge in very large numbers, the Russians (whose morale in many areas is questionable) may prove reluctant to start shooting civilians.

 

Quote

 

“This night will be hard, very hard, but morning will come," [Zelensky] said.

“This night the enemy will be using all available means to break our resistance. This night they will launch an assault.

“This night we must persevere. The fate of Ukraine is being decided right now.”

 

 

In outside news, the UK has banned all aircraft of Russian registry, including private jets, from operating in British airspace. Poland, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic have banned Russian flights as well.

 

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26 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This analysis is pretty good.

All I can say is that the body of Georgy Zhukov must be spinning in its grave so fast it could power Russia for the next ten years.

Russian infantry refused to disembark troop-carriers to screen Russian armour.

That's why so many Russian tanks have been left as burning heaps of junk, there was no anti-infantry fire to disperse Ukrainian AT units before they got into firing range. That's ridiculous.

The bit about para-dropping special forces into an enemy AA-dominated space (as exemplified by five of the choppers in the operation being blown out of the sky in the process) without clearing the area first and then wondering why they were all killed or captured is also very cogent.

Who the fuck is planning this operation? This is stuff the Russians knew how to do before Barbarossa was halfway over, and that was eighty years ago.

I think they were expecting a walkover.  I also think that the modern Russian army is a shadow of the Red Army of the 1940's.

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Jesus.

The professionalism of the Ukrainian army has left the Russians in the dust. This was cool, collected, disciplined counter against a shambolic attack.

After the dust settles from this, there will be heads rolling in the Russian military. They will need a total head-to-tail reorganisation, like they were supposed to have after Georgia in 2008.

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18 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I think they were expecting a walkover.  I also think that the modern Russian army is a shadow of the Red Army of the 1940's.

I think nearly all armies that fought in WWII are a shadow of their former selves. The US/UK have had long campaigns in Afghanistan/Iraq and have some battle experience, but I doubt the same could be said of say Germany or France. Also, the Russians didnt exactly cover themselves in glory in Afghanistan either, so maybe they have been in steady decline for a while.

The other thing though is that Russia has been planning this attack for a while and should have had numerous contingencies available, while Ukraine has to play catch-up and be reactive; and yet they didnt obtain their Day 1/2 objectives or anywhere near that. That 

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2 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Ooooh, I'll bet Putin's really shitting himself now.

Don't underestiate anomynous. They are quite capable, so I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of their hacks were to cause more than one severe headache. Won't do much on the ground, but them screwing with intel and communications will do more for the people of Ukraine than most of those western sanctions ever will.

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Again, would caution folks to spread news that confirms things they want to hear. Ukraine is (correctly) flooding the field with propaganda too. 

I do think things are likely not going as planned for Russia but I don't know how bad that may really be or if it'll matter. Being able to take over the country without deploying major scary forces or wiping out humans and infrastructure would be a major win even at a higher cost of troops and equipment, especially if it is fast. And taking over a country with relatively modern armaments and a population of 40 million in under a week is impressive, even if it costs them more.

Still, can hope they fuck em up. Or even better, hope I'm wrong and that their efforts make it too costly and can bring this to a stop.

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Putin will have to choose between military defeat and global nuclear annihilation. 

the opposition could allow a third way--chase them out but don't back them into a corner that has only a nuclear exit.

 

i wonder if restraint is not being misread as incompetence.  old soviet doctrine was artillery gridkilling--that they haven't done that is suggestive of deliberate holding back.

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14 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Again, would caution folks to spread news that confirms things they want to hear. Ukraine is (correctly) flooding the field with propaganda too. 

I do think things are likely not going as planned for Russia but I don't know how bad that may really be or if it'll matter. Being able to take over the country without deploying major scary forces or wiping out humans and infrastructure would be a major win even at a higher cost of troops and equipment, especially if it is fast. And taking over a country with relatively modern armaments and a population of 40 million in under a week is impressive, even if it costs them more.

Still, can hope they fuck em up. Or even better, hope I'm wrong and that their efforts make it too costly and can bring this to a stop.

I think it's clear that Russia is winning, albeit at a slower rate and at a higher cost than they expected. But they are still winning and I think it's likely they will achieve overall success in the field if Kyiv falls tonight or tomorrow. The cost of urban warfare and a likely post-victory insurgency are other matters that may or may not materialise.

I do think the speed of military advances is simply a factor of modern military campaigns, and its has been since the Gulf War. Being able to advance at speeds unthinkable in WWII (and we have to remember that even then some countries, and even some major countries, fell very quickly) is simply a by-product of modern vehicles, jets and artillery. Negating nukes, if someone had to invade Russia after flattening their air defences and artillery from the air, they'd probably advance at speeds that Napoleon would have given both nuts for, as well.

I do think it's absolutely correct to point out that they way they win is as important as the act of winning. The way Russia has won is pretty poor, and highly dependent on the quirk of geography that puts Kyiv so incredibly close to the frontier. Russia will try to spin this as an overwhelming victory, but both Russian allies and opponents will be looking at their performance and saying, "this is terrible."

Remember that Russia won in 2008 in Georgia as well, but the quality of their campaign was widely derided and mocked, and Putin was so furious he engaged in a very, very expensive rearming and retraining of the Russian military that seems to be...not particularly better.

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2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If the Russian troops are showing restraint… is it a morale move by officer corp to keep their soliders from sympathizing with the Ukrainians or is it a “hearts and minds” move to try to win over the Ukrainians?

Probably neither. It's more likely that putin is afraid of major issues if he obliterates European cities and a bit of the Milton Berle ideology - just show enough to win.

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1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

Probably neither. It's more likely that putin is afraid of major issues if he obliterates European cities and a bit of the Milton Berle ideology - just show enough to win.

It could also be both.  That said, it is interesting.  CNN kept reporting today that Russia was making threats against the families of Ukrainian soldiers if they refused to surrender.  I never heard that anywhere else.

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