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Ukraine- War.


Ser Scot A Ellison
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53 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The NATO Secretary General has just announced the activation of its “Response Force” for deployment to Eastern NATO members borders with Russia.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220225_03/amp.html

I hope the NATO knows better than to send forces to the borders of Russia because it’s the exact eastern nato members they want to protect that will get bombed in the clash. 

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1 minute ago, RhaenysBee said:

I hope the NATO knows better than to send forces to the borders of Russia because it’s the exact eastern nato members they want to protect that will get bombed in the clash. 

 

I hope NATO knows better than just trust to Russian meekness and does send forces to the borders of Russia if necessary, because fuck Russia all the way on this one. 

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2 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I hope the NATO knows better than to send forces to the borders of Russia because it’s the exact eastern nato members they want to protect that will get bombed in the clash. 

Where else could troops be sent if they are tasked with repelling a Russian invasion?

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23 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

What did change when he was elected? Nothing. Isn't that his job?

He is president, not dictator. He doesn't have direct command of municipal or regional governments. He has gone to Budapest to try and discuss means of improving the situation. He is limited, of course, in what he can do according to the decisions of the Ukrainian parliament. 

I looked over his Wikipedia page, and that of his party. and I can't see anything that I would describe as "ultranationalist" or "fascist". The most I could say is that reducing the power of oligarchs is something most in the liberal world see as a positive, not a negative, thing, so long as it's done through appropriate and legal means.

ETA: He has also spoken in favor of improved laws protecting minority rights.

Edited by Ran
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If Putin decides to invade NATO right along with Ukraine in the coming weeks, the Russian military will be completely destroyed in short order.  Russia has a powerful military but it is completely outclassed by what the US, EU and UK militaries can bring to bear.  Then Putin will have to choose between military defeat and global nuclear annihilation.  I can only hope we don't go down that road. 

Note, I do not think that scenario is at all likely, because Putin is no fool.  But it isn't completely impossible that he has cracked under the pressure of being President of Russia for 20+ years. 

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A thread or two ago it was mentioned that Putin's yacht was sailed from Germany to Russia to avoid being caught by sanctions before the war began. Apparently the yacht was being refitted in a German installation. Does anyone else think that the yacht is now infested with listening devices from just about every Nato security service?

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8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Note, I do not think that scenario is at all likely, because Putin is no fool.  But it isn't completely impossible that he has cracked under the pressure of being President of Russia for 20+ years. 

I also don't think he's going to start WW3 or a nuclear holocaust, but I also wouldn't rule out that he's no longer a rational actor. Putin is a megalomaniac with delusions of grandeur and is aware his window to be this historic figure is closing. There's no telling what he'll do, especially if he doesn't give two shits about how it will actually impact his own people. 

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9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If Putin decides to invade NATO right along with Ukraine in the coming weeks, the Russian military will be completely destroyed in short order.  Russia has a powerful military but it is completely outclassed by what the US, EU and UK militaries can bring to bear.  Then Putin will have to choose between military defeat and global nuclear annihilation.  I can only hope we don't go down that road. 

Note, I do not think that scenario is at all likely, because Putin is no fool.  But it isn't completely impossible that he has cracked under the pressure of being President of Russia for 20+ years. 

Russian nuclear doctrine for a war with NATO is to use low-yield nukes on battlefields immediately to try to force negotiations favorable to Russia. They named it "escalate to de-escalate" since they know a conventional war is a lost cause.

War between NATO and Russia gets apocalyptic immediately. Unless the Russian chain of command breaks.

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1 minute ago, Fez said:

Russian nuclear doctrine for a war with NATO is to use low-yield nukes on battlefields immediately to try to force negotiations favorable to Russia. They named it "escalate to de-escalate" since they know a conventional war is a lost cause.

War between NATO and Russia gets apocalyptic immediately. Unless the Russian chain of command breaks.

Would Russian commanders follow through with that order???

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Would Russian commanders follow through with that order???

There is historical precedent for Russian commanders disobeying standing orders in the face of potential nuclear war (Stanislav Petrov, who in 1983 decided to regard the reports of US launched nuclear missiles as being false and opted not to launch a retaliatory strike).

There is also apparently individual units of Russian forces right now who have surrendered to Ukrainian forces right now, feeling misled about what they thought was simply a reconnaissance mission and not an actual invasion.

So I wouldn't rule it out that Russian commanders would balk at the order to launch nukes.

But I also wouldn't bank on it and hope everything turns out fine!

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17 minutes ago, kungtotte said:

There is also apparently individual units of Russian forces right now who have surrendered to Ukrainian forces right now, feeling misled about what they thought was simply a reconnaissance mission and not an actual invasion.

 

 

It's hard to say because of all the propaganda both ways, but I think there might be some misrepresentation or misunderstanding there. If I had to guess at what happened in an English translation  of what they said from Russian, it'd be that they were a recon outfit who hadn't expected the war to have started already and surrendered because they were outmatched by what they were facing, and not because a Russian military unit sent into Ukraine had no idea that at some point they might be asked to kill Ukranians. Like that scenario just doesn't seem likely to me no matter how much Putin might lie to his own men. 

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14 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

Interesting perspective on the restraint shown by Russia so far. Much less ew, artillery fire and use of armor than Russia could do, meaning less civilian casualties than it could be. It could get a lot worse.

 

Is it restraint or just plain incompetence and bad soldiering?

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1 hour ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Is TV news in Sweden and Finland talking about joining NATO?

Well, in the last couple of hours I've read our PM, Marin, to say that Finland's relation to NATO has not changed and President Niinistö, speaking only for himself, saying he didn't bring it up in the NATO meeting today. If you know Finnish, see here. (That's Yle's website, owned by the Finnish state. I don't know how well it's available abroad.)

Also, Niinistö commented on what Zaharova said, essentially saying it's nothing new.

Edited by Ivan Tsarevich
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1 hour ago, polishgenius said:

 

I hope NATO knows better than just trust to Russian meekness and does send forces to the borders of Russia if necessary, because fuck Russia all the way on this one. 

In my view the priority is avoiding world war 3 and/or nuclear war in Europe, that’s what I hope the NATO intends to ensure via its actions and decisions. 

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2 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

In my view the priority is avoiding world war 3 and/or nuclear war in Europe, that’s what I hope the NATO intends to ensure via its actions and decisions. 

You’d prefer a Russian invasion to deterring a Russian invasion?

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