Free Northman Reborn Posted February 26, 2022 Share Posted February 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: Angela Merkel said something like this - before this current crisis. Putin was a Nineteenth-Century politician in the Twenty-First Century, according to her. The trouble is I think the jury is basically out on whether Putin's old fashioned techniques are going to work or not. Maybe the Twenty-First Century will operate in a similar way to previous centuries, in the relevant respects? He is going to be isolated but Russia is fairly well equipped to weather sanctions and China has an interest in seeing they don't collapse. He will strengthen NATO a bit but not sure that changes things too much. I think it is bit early to say whether the Russian forces have been shown to be weaker than supposed - if they have it is reminiscent of the Winter War where Stalin eventually beat Finland but lowered his prestige at a significant time. The big risk for him is Ukraine turns into a quagmire like Iraq (supposing Russia wins this phase of the war) and ultimately weakens him. Yep. It’s a risk, with ultimate outcome unknown. The question is, if he waits, does his position get stronger or weaker? If Ukraine joins NATO it’s over. Similarly, if a more aggressive US president (with all his mental faculties still intact) takes over, things might be more difficult. Merkel just left, so Germany is temporarily less sure of itself. And does the military balance of power between Russia and Ukraine improve or deteriorate from Russia’s point of view as every year goes by? After Covid, is the world desperate to just get on with life rather than engage in a conflict with Russia? Is China’s Xi’s aggressive geopolitical stance guaranteed to continue with his eventual successor? Are tensions around Taiwan working in Russia’s favour right now? Is Putin worried that his own inevitable ageing will make him less capable each year to lead this big push? All things considered, the timing might well be better now than it ever wil be again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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