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Ukraine: “I don’t need a ride, I need Ammunition”.


Ser Scot A Ellison

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We'll know about this way in the future when historians piece together exactly what happened when, but I suspect Putin did not get complete 'buy-in' for the invasion from his top brass, and they may have half assed a lot of it. May also have nixed some of the more brutal aspects as well.

Maybe part of it has to do with the deep connections Ukraine and Russia had in the past, and some people were genuinely queasy about this kind of invasion against their almost-kin (the counterargument is of course what about Crimea, but this is on a different scale).

Edit: Of course the history is also a bit fraught, but nevertheless there was a lot of cross border association.

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I'm far more willing to believe overstating of competence and professionalism of Russia military than I am humanistic interpretations. This reminds me a lot of the US view of friendly Afghanistan forces and how willing and able they were to fight, a major lie pushed by wanting to believe it and corruption.

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I'm getting the nagging feeling that they might have been goaded into a botched invasion by counter intelligence. Egypt pulled a similar trick in Yom Kippur and they almost succeed, feeding wrong intelligence to Israel about the capabilities of their military.

I genuinely think it was, at least in part, Afghanistan. Putin looked at the Taliban rolling across Afghanistan and thought he could replicate that, despite the situation being completely different.

I also think it may have been a feeling that Ukraine's military was getting stronger and stronger, with more and more advanced weaponry and better training. The Turkish drones may have been the last straw. Ironically, they haven't figured that much in the conflict, but the few times they've been used seem to have been devastating for the Russians (the Turkish military is probably very happy at that). Putin may have thought he could invade Ukraine now with 200,000 troops or otherwise in five years he'd need a million.

One thing that is clear is that the Ukrainian 2022 military could have rolled into the rebel strongholds and cleaned them out in relatively short order, and only the fear of sparking a Russian response stopped them.

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4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Maybe part of it has to do with the deep connections Ukraine and Russia had in the past, and some people were genuinely queasy about this kind of invasion against their almost-kin (the counterargument is of course what about Crimea, but this is on a different scale).

Crimea hardly required a take over. Many military units and authorities went over, the population is pro-Russian. Even the situation in the Donbass was different as the population there truly felt threatened and atrocities occurred.

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1 minute ago, KingintheNorth4 said:

Putin is trying to flex his nuclear muscle. It might be a sign of desperation on his part. 

Yeah, people panicking a bit, but they need to remember he made bellicose nuclear threats when Trump bombed Syria and absolutely nothing came of it.

Obviously it's very concerning and the stakes here are higher, and Putin is already doing something beyond his normal "rational actor" range of behaviour, so the fear is he might go beyond even that. The question is if he's gone totally nihilistic.

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1 hour ago, Kalibuster said:

The other thing I am shocked about that I got wrong was how unwilling Russia has been to bomb the shit out of the cities. I expect significantly more brutality and mass casualties, and for whatever reason that has not happened yet.

Kyiv in particular has great historical, and to some extent religious, importance for Russians. It's not Grozny or Aleppo. I'm guessing that even Putin might be reluctant to give the order to raze it.

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13 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Even the situation in the Donbass was different as the population there truly felt threatened and atrocities occurred.

Do we really know what happened in the Donbass?  I time of propaganda and misinformation.

6 hours ago, DMC said:

I dunno, I think it was a pretty safe bet Putain was gonna employ nuclear diplomacy one or another once he started this.

Ok.  Definitely not on my list (at this stage anyhow).  But there is a lot I don't know about this.

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Interesting report from MSN citing Russian sources that Russia is preparing for a mass casualty event… now… that it wasn’t prepared for at the outset:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/leaked-document-shows-russia-is-preparing-for-a-massive-medical-emergency-of-ukraine-war-casualties/ar-AAUkSds?fbclid=IwAR2C3UVffc8qU5wMXssQxmAjBqfh2pcfrSsjowodycDxU-ralaBWvT7ufO0

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22 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

I'm far more willing to believe overstating of competence and professionalism of Russia military than I am humanistic interpretations. 

I don't think it's Putin not being willing to murder civilians in Ukraine, but rather the optics of doing so and the fact that it would almost certainly just further embolden NATo and the various other countries helping Ukraine.

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Just saw a photo of Ukrainian highway notice electronic billboards that have been changed to read “go fuck yourself” In Russian.

:)

Fake, but hilarious. 

 

 

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The only sour note in the unified front against Russia has been (the corrupt) FIFA, that has allowed the Russian team to continue qualifying for the World Cup, even though its opponents have said (Poland for starters) that they wouldn't play. If you add to that whatever Qatar is doing, I may just give this world cup a pass.

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10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The only sour note in the unified front against Russia has been (the corrupt) FIFA, that has allowed the Russian team to continue qualifying for the World Cup, even though its opponents have said (Poland for starters) that they wouldn't play. If you add to that whatever Qatar is doing, I may just give this world cup a pass.

How can they compete if they can’t fly to their games?

And fuck FIFA.

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