Ukraine: “I don’t need a ride, I need Ammunition”.

[Lord of Oop North]

13 hours ago, Fez said:

Yes, taking 3 days to go 50 miles when you committed ground forces on day one is a disaster when the military disparity is so large.

If Russia was following the 2003 US playback of "shock and awe" and a methodical advance that would be one thing. But there's no evidence Russia was trying to do that.

You are saying a few things here that contradict.

On the one hand, that there is a huge military disparity between Russia and Ukraine (which is true)

But on the other hand, that a big component of that military disparity is not being employed in the invasion.

That military disparity plays a huge role in the ability to allow armies to rapidly advance. The Russians clearly have the capability so we should ask ourselves why they are holding back? I am sure Ukranian military is thinking about that, and not counting chickens before they hatch.

You say not taking Kyiv in 3 days is a disaster, maybe it is, but maybe it is not. You are making many assumptions about their supposed objectives and expectations.

 

 

[Toth]

Fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck...

 

[Lightning Lord]

The Guardian just posted that the Russian and Ukrainian delegations will meet without preconditions... dare to hope it could still be peace.

[Lord of Oop North]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/feb/27/russia-ukraine-latest-news-missile-strikes-on-oil-facilities-reported-as-some-russian-banks-cut-off-from-swift-system-live

Quote

Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered his military to put the country’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert in response to “aggressive statements” by NATO countries.

The order, which was announced by the TASS news agency, came at a meeting between Putin, defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia Valery Gerasimov.

“Senior officials of the leading NATO countries also allow aggressive statements against our country, therefore I order the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff [of the Russian Armed Forces] to transfer the deterrence forces of the Russian army to a special mode of combat duty,” Putin said in the statement, which was quoted by state-run TASS.

It is not immediately clear what the “special mode of combat duty” entailed. Putin has warned foreign countries not to interfere in his ongoing invasion of Ukraine, saying it could lead to “consequences they have never seen.” He has positioned anti-air missiles and other advanced missile systems in Belarus and deployed his fleet to the Black Sea in an effort to prevent a western intervention in Ukraine.

 

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, Lord of Oop North said:

You say not taking Kyiv in 3 days is a disaster, maybe it is, but maybe it is not. You are making many assumptions about their supposed objectives and expectations.

Right, if it takes Russia 3 weeks instead of 3 days, but the former significantly limits Russian casualties/force depletion, then clearly it is the less costly approach.  Moreover, if it significantly limits Ukrainian casualties then it would also make Russia look "better," or less bad, on the world stage.

[Fez]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Right, if it takes Russia 3 weeks instead of 3 days, but the former significantly limits Russian casualties/force depletion, then clearly it is the less costly approach.  Moreover, if it significantly limits Ukrainian casualties then it would also make Russia look "better," or less bad, on the world stage.

If that was the case, sure. But all evidence is that Russia is trying to take Kyiv as quickly as possible. Which they are still failing to do so far.

There is also now confirmed video evidence of Ukraine drones being able to hit Russian conveys. Whereas before this war started the assumption was that Russian AA would easily take those drones out. Yet another way this has revealed weaknesses in the Russian military. 

[Corvinus85]

57 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

- additional investment into the modernization of the nuclear carriers (possibly F-35)

Germany has nuclear carriers? I may be misunderstanding here.

[Werthead]

A lot of nervousness over the nuclear deterrence speech. Several possibilities:

1. It's a bluff and he will otherwise do nothing. Possibly the most likely situation but not one you'd necessarily want to bet on.
2. Putin is trying to create his favourite circumstance, "strategic ambiguity," where it is unclear where Russia's red lines are to try to deter the West from getting anywhere near them. In particular, he will be trying to create doubt in the West that what they believe is the ultimate territorial red line for Russia, crossing the borders of Russia as they were a week ago, is Russia's red line, and he will use nukes before that point.
3. Russia will issue an ultimatum to other countries to climb down or they will use nuclear weapons in some capacity, such as sending Russian aircraft into the airspace of the countries that have closed their airspaces. There's then a staring match. That would be a dangerous moment.
4. Russia deploys a limited-use, "small" tactical battlefield nuclear weapon in some fashion, possibly directly on Kharkiv or Kyiv, or in open countryside in Ukraine somewhere, as a demonstration of his resolve.
5. This is a political "escalate to de-escalate" move ahead of the peace talks on the Belarusian border, possibly to distract from the fact the Russians appear to have climbed down from their insistence that the discussions happen in Minsk (ignoring that the Ukrainians also climbed down from insisting the talks take place somewhere like Austria or Switzerland).

There are, of course, several problems with this approach. One is that Russia is not the only country in the world with nuclear weapons and Russia would be nuked in response, probably ending all life on Earth (or certainly civilisation as we know it). The question would be if Putin would effectively rather die than lose, which is entirely possible, especially given his age and possible health concerns.

The other is that China will, quite blatantly, not be keen on this kind of rhetoric. It's economy depends on having people, even people it's wary of or in competition with, to sell shit to, and not wanting China to be irradiated in fallout. China may therefore significantly increase its opposition to Russia.

Finally, the Russian generals looked extremely unhappy at the order they were given. Any opposition or second thoughts going on in the Kremlin will have just received a very major kick up the arse.

[Loge]

1 minute ago, Corvinus85 said:

Germany has nuclear carriers? I may be misunderstanding here.

There is a small number Of US nukes, which would be carried by German fighter airplanes. The whole arrangement is calle "nuclear sharing."

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Fez said:

If that was the case, sure. But all evidence is that Russia is trying to take Kyiv as quickly as possible. Which they are still failing to do so far.

Again I think this is still based on assumptions no one can (or should) really be confident in.

[Varysblackfyre321]

Now things are really escalating!

[karaddin]

4 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

Germany has nuclear carriers? I may be misunderstanding here.

Yeah, as Loge is saying this refers to "planes which can carry nukes" not "nuclear powered aircraft carriers" which would be the more common thing under discussion with that name

[karaddin]

The angle that I didn't expect from all this is that he's managed to create a narrative where if one of his underlings manages to stage a coup they'll be handed the opening to completely play Putin as the villain without losing the nationalism angle at all. Putin ran the military into the ground, sent them into a dumb war with their brothers and then couldn't even win it quickly, handing Russia an economic disaster, then lost the plot and started threatening everyone with nukes etc etc.

It's both a better opening than I expected him to ever give them, and also one that will allow them to completely dismantle his legacy if they do take it rather than needing to build on it.

[The Dragon Demands]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

British defence analysts this morning saying that Russia has committed at least 50% of the forces they had surrounding Ukraine already, and what's left is probably their strategic reserve for the operation, which may have been ear-marked for post-conflict occupation and relieving the front line troops. Russia may need to commit them to take Kyiv and Kharkiv (which is somehow still holding out), but will be left with nothing to fall back on. If the Ukrainians weather a second wave of attacks, Russia will have to amass another force to invade (which could take months, during which Ukraine would be heavily resupplied and reinforced), resort to high-damage weapons to force the issue or, well, give up.

They can push their salients to Kiev and Kharkiv if they concentrate all remaining Russian forces into the spearhead - they can use Belarusian auxiliaries to shore up their flanks. What’s the worst that could happen?

[Padraig]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Again I think this is still based on assumptions no one can (or should) really be confident in.

It's really hard to imagine that this nuclear move was part of Russia's main plan.  Although, I do agree that even if Russia's invasion takes longer than it hoped, it's also hard to imagine that Russia wouldn't grind down Ukraine in the end.

However dispiriting that is.

Putin does like a good threat.  And when you are President of Russia, you can normally get away with it.  But people may eventually call you on it.  While he thinks the rest of the world doesn't understand and appreciate Russia's interests, his problem is he seemingly doesn't understand the rest of the world's point of view.  So it all adds to his sense of grievance.

[RhaenysBee]

Do we have any information on when the peace talk at the Belarusian border is to take place? 

I don’t see how we won’t get obliterated within weeks/days if they don’t settle on peace terms. 

Because you know, a week ago we thought the war was “only a threat” too.

[karaddin]

And this risk of escalating even when no one expected or planned for it was exactly what @Kalibuster was concerned about a month or so ago. Wars take on a life of their own and people feel trapped into actions they don't want to take.

I'd be trying to get China on board with finding a way to shuffle him on out of power before this gets too bad because I highly doubt China is happy with these turns.

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 minutes ago, karaddin said:

And this risk of escalating even when no one expected or planned for it was exactly what @Kalibuster was concerned about a month or so ago. Wars take on a life of their own and people feel trapped into actions they don't want to take.

I'd be trying to get China on board with finding a way to shuffle him on out of power before this gets too bad because I highly doubt China is happy with these turns.

It’s only been a couple days it’d be a mistake to start writing Putin’s obituary right now.

[rotting sea cow]

7 hours ago, polishgenius said:

I mean I dunno about the details of the situation but you know something's not going quite right when they're losing fights to a statue:

I remember the account of a US Marine when during an insertion in the house of a supposedly Taliban leader. After knocking down the door he found himself on front of an armed guy pointing to him. After emptying his magazine on him he realized it was just the reflection of himself from a big ass mirror positioned at the entrance. The house was empty. 

[karaddin]

7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It’s only been a couple days it’d be a mistake to start writing Putin’s obituary right now.

It's a hope, not as assumption or an expectation