Ukraine: Holding

[Zorral]

This sins of the past thread doesn't show in the Gen Chat list.

[The Dragon Demands]

Could this crisis make the UK seriously reconsider Brexit?

[JGP]

The PR calculation re: anything Russian right now is far from inconsiderable. International law firms in particular have no doubt been having stressful board meetings.

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It may be a little hawkish but I fall in Kasparov's camp. Diplomatic offramps presented to Russia to deescalate right now should be conditional on the removal of Putin and his cronies. Make it widely known that Russia will be accepted back into the international community with open arms, and a willingness to help and work together, if that happens. Sanctions lifted immediately, excepting upon remaining oligarchs to soften rebuilding costs in Ukraine. 

[Zorral]

"Russia tries to stop Western companies fleeing the country"

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/investing/russia-economy-capital-controls/index.html

Quote

 

... Capital controls designed to stop the exodus were announced by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, state news agencies TASS and RIA reported on Tuesday. Western companies were taking decisions because of "political pressure," he said, and they would be prevented from selling Russian assets until that pressure subsides.

"To enable businesses to make informed decisions, a draft presidential decree has been prepared to introduce temporary restrictions on exiting Russian assets," Mishustin was quoted as saying. "We expect that those who have invested in our country will be able to continue working here."

Oil giant BP (BP) is one of the most prominent companies to abandon Russia since its troops invaded Ukraine last week. It said Sunday it was planning to exit its 19.75% stake in Russia's biggest oil company, Rosneft, and their joint ventures — amounting to one of the biggest foreign investments in Russia. . . . .

 

 

[Fez]

45 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

This is a process for years, if not decades, in case of Ukrainian economy even before the invasion. It's not the question of political will, there are strict economic indicators that need to be met first and millions of regulations to be adjusted to EU law.

Well, however long it takes, it looks like the EU is ready to move the process forward; presuming Ukraine remains independent.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This sins of the past thread doesn't show in the Gen Chat list.

It’s “Europe and the world… sins of the past”:

 

[Wilbur]

2 minutes ago, Zorral said:

"Russia tries to stop Western companies fleeing the country"

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/investing/russia-economy-capital-controls/index.html

 

I don't think that this will work out well for Russia.

China has regulations with a similar effect, in addition to requiring Western companies to have a local partner, usually some element of the PLA.  However, in the case of China, the Western company usually wants to use Chinese labor and inexpensive factory assets to manufacture a product that is then exported to the West.  So for most Western manufacturers, strong pressures to re-patriate capital don't occur, but they want to stay in the country and continue to use the manufacturing capacity.

Russia doesn't have that same manufacturing for export market, they have an extraction market for oil and gas and timber and other natural resources.  Western sellers, like the petroleum companies, already have an image problem, they don't need to add "friend of Putin" to their reputations.  Blood diamonds don't sell well in the west, and neither will Ukrainian Repression Oil.  I predict a lot of Western companies will write their Russian investments off with a sad shrug in order to hit the exit.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

16 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Blood diamonds don't sell well in the west, and neither will Ukrainian Repression Oil.  I predict a lot of Western companies will write their Russian investments off with a sad shrug in order to hit the exit.

Is that so. Estimates of the share of are so called conflict or blood diamonds that get sold each year vary. The cautios estimate is 1/13 of the diamonds are infact blood diamonds. Other estimates go as high as 15%. So 1/7 roughly.

Not to mention the mining condition, and the, shall we say, not particularly kind way of the industry going about their business of mining, and convincing locals to move their village.

Edit. If those fancy engagement rings were to send a a romantic message. It could very well be something along the line I'd murder an entire village for you. Chances are, you have with that very ring as evidence.

But that's me being overly cynical.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I would say having a Chinese National running your law school fund raiser, unless that person is a known supporter of human rights, would be unthinkable.

Damn you just bit that bullet like it was   Chewing gum.

51 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Cos I’m British I love Oligarchs?

No come on now let’s not play the victim here; I’m pretty sure she’s saying it because you’re you and you have a…socially conservative alternative view of politics. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

I don’t have a problem with Russians in general, I have a problem with supporters of Putin. Do you think that security agencies don’t know who the Putin supporters are? 
 

Supporter of Putin/=Russian.

[Fez]

Claims going around from a couple hours ago that Ukraine has captured one of Russia's thermobaric launchers. Supposedly it was abandoned and fully loaded. There's a photo going around, but it could be old and the story not true.

If true though, that's another big yikes for Russia's military. If they were going to keep anything secure I'd think those TOS-1As would be it.

Also, I suppose now there's the question of whether Ukraine will turn around and use it against any Russian military targets.

[IheartIheartTesla]

There are > 10000 Indian students still trapped in Ukraine, and one of them already died in Kharkiv (while he was in line for a grocery store, apparently, from Russian fire). Not sure if this will make Modi get away from his mealy-mouthed tightrope act, but maybe in his next call to Putin he can ask for some easing on the attacks on civilians. Every bit helps.

The same is probably true of Pakistani students as well, Ukraine has relatively cheap tuition fees making it a popular destination for students from south Asia.

[Fragile Bird]

15 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Damn you just bit that bullet like it was   Chewing gum.

No come on now let’s not play the victim here; I’m pretty sure she’s saying it because you’re you and you have a…socially conservative alternative view of politics. 
 

 

Supporter of Putin/=Russian.

Yes, one of the biggest supporters of Putin lives at Mar-a-Lago.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

17 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also, I suppose now there's the question of whether Ukraine will turn around and use it against any Russian military targets.

No good would come out of this.

If they have any sense, they will destroy it and share the video of its destruction. 

• t would show Russia did indeed deploy those
• Russia couldn'T claim it was used against them as pretext to further escalate things and unleash whatever they could come up with.

Will Isildur have the good sense to destroy the bloody ring? Thus far Ukraine have acted in a way, that they might very well be able to do that.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

17 minutes ago, Fez said:

Claims going around from a couple hours ago that Ukraine has captured one of Russia's thermobaric launchers. Supposedly it was abandoned and fully loaded. There's a photo going around, but it could be old and the story not true.

If true though, that's another big yikes for Russia's military. If they were going to keep anything secure I'd think those TOS-1As would be it.

Also, I suppose now there's the question of whether Ukraine will turn around and use it against any Russian military targets.

If they have it and turn around and use it… it could burn some international goodwill… or… it could illustrate that Putin is just that bad for deploying them in the first place.

[Werthead]

Updated US defence analysis that Russia has now brought 80% of its invasion force into the country. What happens when Russia literally runs out of the troops they'd prepped (however ineptly) for the invasion is unclear. Start pulling in troops from elsewhere? Fully mobilise reserves? That'll take time.

Just leaving the troops in-situ and keep resupplying them might be the idea, but there's all sorts of problems there, including the rate at which they are burning through troops (conceivably they could be at 10% killed/surrendered/forced to flee already).

The Pentagon also believes that Russia has fired 400 missiles, but the Ukrainian anti-missile defence system remains operational and surprisingly effective. Russia has failed to to establish air superiority and Mariupol and its port remains in Ukrainian hands, preventing Russia from bringing in reinforcements en masse by sea. Nearby Berdyansk and Meliotopol now seem firmly in Russian hands, though.

[Werthead]

Interesting. Trying to encourage the lawyers to drop their clients, I believe.

[DaveSumm]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If they have it and turn around and use it… it could burn some international goodwill… or… it could illustrate that Putin is just that bad for deploying them in the first place.

For me personally, it’d take remarkable restraint not to use it. It might be the better long term strategy, but in the moment, while your country’s getting invaded? Knowing you could save Ukrainian lives in the short term? I wouldn’t blame them.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, DaveSumm said:

For me personally, it’d take remarkable restraint not to use it. It might be the better long term strategy, but in the moment, while your country’s getting invaded? Knowing you could save Ukrainian lives in the short term? I wouldn’t blame them.

I hope they don’t.  The world sees Ukraine as the underdog and the victim, with good cause.  If they use a captured TOS-1A… that will slip.

[Maithanet]

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Updated US defence analysis that Russia has now brought 80% of its invasion force into the country. What happens when Russia literally runs out of the troops they'd prepped (however ineptly) for the invasion is unclear. Start pulling in troops from elsewhere? Fully mobilise reserves? That'll take time.

Just leaving the troops in-situ and keep resupplying them might be the idea, but there's all sorts of problems there, including the rate at which they are burning through troops (conceivably they could be at 10% killed/surrendered/forced to flee already).

10% killed/wounded/surrendered/fled would be 20k troops, and I haven't seen anything close to that even from Ukrainian sources (which have an incentive to inflate numbers).  Even 5% casualties in the first week feels implausible.  While I agree there is strong evidence that Russian morale is low and some desertion is occurring, it is very hard to know how common that is. 

Instead, I think that Russia's strategy of sending small mobile detachments to take small crossroad towns will be abandoned, and instead Russia will move in force wherever they want to go, with heavy artillery/air support.  This will make their advance more methodical, but also much harder for Russian troops to simply defect or avoid fighting.  It will also no doubt increase Ukrainian military and civilian casualties. 

The only downside to this plan (for Russia's military) is that this war is super expensive and Russian logistics look to already be struggling to meet the challenge of modern war.  Will the Russian army simply break down if they have to fight for another month or two?  I doubt it, but I can no longer completely dismiss the possibility. 

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

we’re starting with ostracising Russians and end up with people being verbally abused in the streets for speaking…. Polish. (true story happened yesterday to my friend).

and people here tell me I'm exaggerating... I'm sorry for your friend.