Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, DMC said: I dunno he's young, Texan, crazy conservative. Maybe he just really wants to be a pirate. To steal one thing I came here to post is one thing, but both of them?!?!? How dare you. I demand satisfaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briantw Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said: How do you think I feel about the word Aluminium? Yes I know you guys also spell it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dragon Demands Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 I spell it "Aluminum" as God intended. My car gets 40 rods to the hogshead of gas, and that's the way I likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said: The West did nothing to stop Azerbaijan during the last war or to pressure Turkey regarding the arms supplies, possibly just to get Russia bogged down there. While I think your friend in Armenia should be concerned, I also think its more complicated than that. There is a seperate argument about whether you want want the West to be involved but the West has generally avoided getting involved in such conflicts in former USSR states because of Russia's strength (and how infuriated it would be if the West had get actively involved). For the last 15 years, a policy of appeasement has been in effect. If you want the West to be involved, you would need to have a weaker Russia. The West has little to no control over Turkey. Although Putin may think Turkey is a US pawn I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 Apparently a large arms depot outside Kharkiv just went up. It looks horrifying. 3 hours ago, Maithanet said: 10% killed/wounded/surrendered/fled would be 20k troops, and I haven't seen anything close to that even from Ukrainian sources (which have an incentive to inflate numbers). Even 5% casualties in the first week feels implausible. While I agree there is strong evidence that Russian morale is low and some desertion is occurring, it is very hard to know how common that is. Yeah, I had the 100,000 figure in my brain that was bandied around for months, not the 190,000 they finally went in with. So closer to 5% (and that's not just dead, but wounded, not to mention the hundreds of Russian POWs apparently taken). Quote Could they replace the thermobaric missiles with other missiles and just use it against Russian artillery and tanks? Yes. The TOS-1 can fire non-thermobaric missiles as well, including standard incendiaries. Quote Indeed. I have seen the idea floating around that we should openly demand a leadership change of Russia as a precondition for peace talks, just to drive the point home that this would be the easiest way out for Russia. That's not a great idea. We have to remember that Russians deposing Putin, although desirable, might actually mark the most dangerous moment in the crisis, when he feels that he personally has nothing to lose and might just decide to start blowing everything up (there were a couple of very jumpy moments when the wall came down that could have been much more serious). In that sense, it's actually a really bad idea for Russia to reintroduce the death penalty right now. Putting Putin's back up against the wall should be avoided in favour of giving him an off-ramp from the crisis that he can sell as a victory back home, and then letting the Russians sort it the hell out afterwards when fingers are not so hot on buttons. Quote Ukraine also [allegedly] putting the punt to the idea that Russia may even be decent at information war, much less infosec. Something that has puzzled me on this is how Russia spent vast sums of money and effort starting as early as 2012 to infiltrate overseas powers and voting systems, sowing discord and using propaganda, helping Trump win his election, helping Brexit happen, sticking a wedge between Hungary and the rest of the EU (Poland as well, to a lesser extent), and they've completely blown a decade's work in the space of a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 "People of Color Are Having a Harder Time Getting Out of Ukraine" https://www.thecut.com/2022/03/people-of-color-are-having-a-harder-time-fleeing-ukraine.html#_ga=2.233845018.545206089.1646178813-1515188007.1646178806 Quote . . . . Thousands of African and Indian students are trying to leave Ukraine and reportedly encountering what seems to be a de facto “Ukrainians first” policy that has guards sending Black and South Asian civilians to the back of lines, pulling them off of trains and buses to make room for white Ukrainians, and stranding them at the border for days. One student told CNN she saw guards violently preventing Indian men from passing through and pushing an Egyptian man so hard he was knocked unconscious. . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briantw Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Werthead said: Putting Putin's back up against the wall should be avoided in favour of giving him an off-ramp from the crisis that he can sell as a victory back home, and then letting the Russians sort it the hell out afterwards when fingers are not so hot on buttons. Personally, I think the most ideal solution would be someone putting a bullet in the back of his skull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corvinus85 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 https://www.axios.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-7bea049b-2308-4801-b75a-93104c17b82b.html Ukrainian authorities reporting they foiled an assassination plot on Zelensky attempted by Chechen special forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 A few sources reporting that Ukrainian ground troops and air forces (unclear if jets or UAVs) coordinated a strike on a large Russian military convoy near the city of Bashtanka, near Mykolaiv. Some reports that the convoy had 800 vehicles in it (presumably not all or even most were destroyed, that would be quite an achievement). Some unrest in Georgia as well, politicians are gearing up to get the Prime Minister to resign for failing to support Ukraine enough, presumably on the grounds he doesn't want Georgia to be next. Russia has just banned "authorised" opposition media including TV Rain and radio station Echo of Moscow, that is media that has been mildly critical of the government. Russia lets such things run because they back up the illusion of a free press. Echo of Moscow has quite a reasonable following, and has run uninterrupted in Russia since the fall of the USSR (thanks to some canny deals with the regulator and with Gazprom, which part owns them). Some reports that Anonymous has shut down the control centre of the Russian Space Agency. Hopes this might deny Russians access to spy satellite information appear premature though (that's usually handled by the military). Container lines Maersk, CMA and MSC have just suspended all shipping to and from Russia. Only food, medicine and humanitarian cargoes will be delivered. Interesting news for Ukraine's military manpower: The Kyiv Independent has been a good source, but they do tend towards the optimistic in their reporting, so take some of those figures with a pinch of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Wow. Ukraine has contacted China's government directly and got a call with the Foreign Minister himself, who expressed support for Ukraine's territory integrity and confirms he is considering a request to mediate a ceasefire with Russia. China is extremely concerned about the fate of 6,000 Chinese citizens in Ukraine, not all of whom have been accounted for. Ukraine's trade with China is huge, and China gets a vast amount of wheat and even military equipment from Ukraine (China's first aircraft carrier was an ex-Soviet model left incomplete in a Ukrainian port after the fall of the union, which Ukraine flogged to the Chinese Navy for a profit). Obviously that is utterly dwarfed by Russian-Chinese trade, but China has a stake in what goes on in Ukraine. China may also view Ukraine slipping firmly into the Western orbit might not be entirely desirable to them, so they're going in with the carrot, maybe negotiating a ceasefire in return for a better trade arrangement afterwards. How much pressure Beijing will now exert on Moscow remains to be seen. However, Beijing will be reluctant to criticise Moscow permanently and is unlikely to do anything that the West can sell as a division between the two powers. So China's interventions with Russia will be limited, but possibly useful in giving Putin another off-ramp out of the conflict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, Werthead said: Putting Putin's back up against the wall should be avoided in favour of giving him an off-ramp from the crisis that he can sell as a victory back home, and then letting the Russians sort it the hell out afterwards when fingers are not so hot on buttons. An off-ramp is ideal, but I think we need to ask ourselves if Putin should really be allowed to take one that he can call a win. Frankly he should have to crawl back to the Kremlin with his tail between his legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Just now, Tywin et al. said: An off-ramp is ideal, but I think we need to ask ourselves if Putin should really be allowed to take one that he can call a win. Frankly he should have to crawl back to the Kremlin with his tail between his legs. If you want this you want world War 3. Stop it. It is some absurd batman fantasy. You have to allow a golden bridge off because the alternative is so much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: An off-ramp is ideal, but I think we need to ask ourselves if Putin should really be allowed to take one that he can call a win. Frankly he should have to crawl back to the Kremlin with his tail between his legs. Putin will absolutely not take anything that he cannot sell as a win. If he does, his lifespan might be measured in days or weeks, and he might feel compelled to escalate further. Russia will need to get something out of this they can spin as a positive, no matter how pitifully ludicrous that is to the rest of the world. Even Ukraine agreeing to a 10-year moratorium on not joining NATO and recognising Crimea as part of Russia might just be enough, with Chinese encouragement. Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden you can threaten to hunt down like dogs and execute, maybe even Kim Jong-Un (who's been firing off ballistic missiles this week) if you're feeling very optimistic. But the likes of Putin and Jinping have to be given ways of saving face in defeat, otherwise they are simply not going to accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Werthead said: Ukraine's trade with China is huge, and China gets a vast amount of wheat That is potentially massive, and I, for one, would say YAY if China was able to mediate a ceasefire. Among the many positives, is that it takes out NATO and the US all together, which would make it easier on Putin's ego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 no chance of my finding it a second time, but late last night a very short clip flashed across my Facebook showing a Texan in Russia standing next to a row of Armored Personel Carriers, boasting about how Putin would be using these to 'put the hammer down on those Nazi's in the Ukraine.' I can't decide if it's fake or if the US far-right has completely lost their minds. Maybe both in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said: https://www.axios.com/zelensky-assassination-plot-foiled-7bea049b-2308-4801-b75a-93104c17b82b.html Ukrainian authorities reporting they foiled an assassination plot on Zelensky attempted by Chechen special forces. This is one hell of a sentence from your link: Quote Ukrainian authorities had been tipped off about the plot by members of Russia's Federal Security Service who do not support the war, he added. Of course, that could be Ukraine trying to sow division in Russia by pretending they have sources that don't exist. But if not, elements of the FSB being that against the war has all sorts of potential implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kalibuster said: If you want this you want world War 3. Stop it. It is some absurd batman fantasy. You have to allow a golden bridge off because the alternative is so much worse. World War 3 starts when NATO invades Russia. It's hyperbolic to say it starts if Putin is made to back down. 4 minutes ago, Werthead said: Putin will absolutely not take anything that he cannot sell as a win. If he does, his lifespan might be measured in days or weeks, and he might feel compelled to escalate further. Russia will need to get something out of this they can spin as a positive, no matter how pitifully ludicrous that is to the rest of the world. Even Ukraine agreeing to a 10-year moratorium on not joining NATO and recognising Crimea as part of Russia might just be enough, with Chinese encouragement. You can give him an empty win because his people will likely see it as just that. People in Russia have more access to outside information than people in China or DPRK. What he can't get is anything of real substances, otherwise that justifies his actions and it's long past time for the West to stand up and tell him enough of his bullshit. Also, is there any actual evidence that his life is in serious danger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, ThinkerX said: I can't decide if it's fake or if the US far-right has completely lost their minds. Maybe both in this case. It’s completely rational for a member of the far-right in America to support Putin. He’s been a key backer in their movements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: World War 3 starts when NATO invades Russia. It's hyperbolic to say it starts if Putin is made to back down. It is not hyperbolic to say that it will also start if Putin is given the choice of killing all Ukrainians or being tried for war crimes or worse. If Putin believes that his choices are killing a whole lot of people or dying in a jail, I can guarantee you what he'll pick, and it won't be 'coming to justice'. 9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Also, is there any actual evidence that his life is in serious danger? Having to crawl back to Russia with his tail between his legs? So here's the thing - the problem with being a dictator for life is that there is only one way to end the dictatorship. Putting Putin in a position where he is disgraced, outcast, and the Russian populace is in open revolt against him is not going to end the way you want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Also, is there any actual evidence that his life is in serious danger? While I whole-heartedly agree with Wert and Kal that an offramp for Putin should absolutely be provided that doesn't necessitate regime change, I do think this "he'll die otherwise" rationale is overdramatic and a bit unfounded. They removed Khrushchev without any violence, I don't see any reason to assume it'll be off with his head if he capitulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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