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Ukraine: Holding


Ser Scot A Ellison
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https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/lviv-mayor-tells-boris-put-ukraine-refugees-in-oligarchs-london-mansions-314391/

 

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Lviv mayor tells Boris: Put Ukraine refugees in oligarchs’ London mansions

"What we need now is for Boris Johnson to start freezing the bank accounts of Russian oligarchs in London and to seize their luxury villas."

 

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7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Who said anything about taking a hardline approach? I just don't think it's wise to quickly give in to make the issue feel like it's gone away.

Earlier, you said

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That said, is it even possible to get a credible commitment from Putin at this point? His word is worthless, and it probably should be seen as such for the rest of his time in power. No one can believe a thing he says, which makes taking a softer approach harder to swallow. 

This seems to imply that Ukraine should concede nothing to Putin, which is certainly a hardline approach and not likely to help negotiate peace.

 

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Racist treatment of refugees has absolutely happened -- likely a combination of ill intent as well as confusion. There is also a lot of disinformation to be aware of (haven't specifically seen any reposted here to date, but I haven't read everything)

 

 

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More and more companies from all over the world suspend business ties with companies based in Russia or Belarus. Europe's dependance on Russian gas and to lesser extent oil remains a problem though (and is also a reason why the biggest Russian bank is not going to be cut off from SWIFT). Germany's decision to shut down its nuclear plants to the end of 2022 doesn't seem to be that smart at all now.

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4 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

More and more companies from all over the world suspend business ties with companies based in Russia or Belarus. Europe's dependance on Russian gas and to lesser extent oil remains a problem though (and is also a reason why the biggest Russian bank is not going to be cut off from SWIFT). Germany's decision to shut down its nuclear plants to the end of 2022 doesn't seem to be that smart at all now.

Yep, my company's CEO sent an email last night announcing the suspension of all orders of our products that were going to go to Russia and no new orders allowed. Granted, since the US was imposing these sanctions it was going to happen.

Edited by Corvinus85
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1 hour ago, 3CityApache said:

Ukrainian media, citing intelligence sources, says Russia is going to try to install Victor Yanukovych as a puppet Ukrainian president. Yanukovych (president of Ukraine in 2010-2014, who was sentenced in absentia for 13 years in prison for treason by Ukrainian court in 2019), was allegedly relocated to Minsk.

Is Yanukovych so eager to paint a target on his head?

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15 minutes ago, 3CityApache said:

@Ser Scot A Ellison I suppose he doesn't have much choice in this particular case.

An example of why making a strongman dictator you sponsor is a really poor idea.  Lukashenko should take notes.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison
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15 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

World War 3 starts when NATO invades Russia. It's hyperbolic to say it starts if Putin is made to back down.

You can give him an empty win because his people will likely see it as just that. People in Russia have more access to outside information than people in China or DPRK. What he can't get is anything of real substances, otherwise that justifies his actions and it's long past time for the West to stand up and tell him enough of his bullshit. 

Also, is there any actual evidence that his life is in serious danger?

I think it is risky to make that assumption, although it is the most rational and a few years ago I would have broadly agreed. But I think it's also very dangerous for the regime in Moscow to make some kind of large-scale gambit and fail overwhelmingly and spectacularly. Losing the First Chechen War damaged Moscow so immensely badly that they simply could not afford to lose the second, at the cost of immense numbers of Russian and Chechen lives, and effectively obliterating an entire city. The scale here is much larger and Putin appears to genuinely consider Ukraine to be Russian territory.

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Also, is there any actual evidence that his life is in serious danger?

Putin has normalised poisoning enemies even in other countries. I think certainly he will be considering it reasonable to fear someone doing the same to him. Stalin thought the same thing, despite putting so much fear into people that they were terrified to even check he was dead.

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They removed Khrushchev without any violence, I don't see any reason to assume it'll be off with his head if he capitulates.

Khrushchev at the end of his reign did not have his hands on the tiller of power anywhere near as firmly and tightly as Putin does now. Khrushchev had spent months out of the country (allowing the plot to gather momentum and support) and he had been pursuing a policy of anti-Stalinism which was extremely unpopular with the old guard who'd been around during Stalin's day. Khrushchev was also slightly older than Putin is now, and was genuinely tired and was happy to retire. He had his moments, but he was not an egomaniac with a cult of personality, at least not to the same degree as Putin.

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China playing the role of peace broker would be an insanely big diplomatic coup, I think, one which would give them a shit-ton of soft power. From a veiledly interested point of view, I'd say the West should try to talk to Moscow as well, we can't be left out of this - of course I suppose they're already doing this.

 

Macron has appointed himself - presumably having talked to Boris and the other EU/NATO leaders - the Western leader who is still talking to Putin. So far he's got nothing firmer than vague agreements to try to not escalate things (which are clearly not happening), but there is one channel of communication there. They last spoke on Monday. Macron might want to reign his finance minister declaring "economic total war" on Russia, though, that may be true but the rhetoric seems to be enflaming Russian responses. When you're doing something, it's not necessary to say you're doing it.

Edited by Werthead
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A surreal clip from Ukrainian TV show Servant of the People. The president, played by Zelenskyy, receives a call from Angela Merkel welcoming him into the European Union (except not)


I like this timeline better

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17 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Khrushchev at the end of his reign did not have his hands on the tiller of power anywhere near as firmly and tightly as Putin does now. Khrushchev had spent months out of the country (allowing the plot to gather momentum and support) and he had been pursuing a policy of anti-Stalinism which was extremely unpopular with the old guard who'd been around during Stalin's day. Khrushchev was also slightly older than Putin is now, and was genuinely tired and was happy to retire. He had his moments, but he was an egomaniac with a cult of personality, at least not to the same degree as Putin.

Ukrainian authorities have claimed at least twice to have gotten information from anti-war elements in the FSB. Could just be PsyOps of course. But if true, it opens up questions like, 1) how much of the FSB is against the war?, 2) how high up the command chain does it go?, 3) is it just desk analysts or does it include the scary guys with guns?

Because if parts of the FSB are willing to commit what would certainly be called treason if they're caught, it's not a far leap to think they might be willing to commit a palace coup as well. If only to protect themselves from future investigations.

Of course, I have no idea what the balance of power in Moscow is like and whether the FSB could carry out something like that by themselves or if they'd need some amount of the army, city police, presidential guard, etc. on their side.

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1 hour ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Earlier, you said

This seems to imply that Ukraine should concede nothing to Putin, which is certainly a hardline approach and not likely to help negotiate peace.

 

Hardline to me is demanding regime change. Starting at telling Russia to leave after their invasion didn't work isn't all that hardline. If Ukraine wants to make some minor concessions to speed up the process, fine, that's understandable, but what I don't get is this rush to give Putin something he actually wants after he became a war criminal, international pariah and most importantly, a failure. He shouldn't be able to walk away from this feeling like he accomplished any serious goals. 

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Ukraine's government basically declared a free for all on Russian military equipment. https://ua.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804441-amp.html

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"Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland! There is no need to declare the captured Russian tanks and other equipment, because the cost of this ... does not exceed 100 living wages (UAH 248,100)," NAPC's press service said.

 

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7 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Austria is doing the same and has refused refugees from Ukraine that are citizens of a 3rd country entry. :(

Well, the difference is, you are not a neighboring country and basically trap people in Ukraine now.

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3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Well, the difference is, you are not a neighboring country and basically trap people in Ukraine now.

The only people trapping people in Ukraine were Ukrainians. There are no reports of foreigners being turned back by the neighbouring countries border guards.

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