Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes

[The Sunland Lord]

Serbia voting yes is also interesting, I thought they were going to be neutral on this.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Serbia voting yes is also interesting, I thought they were going to be neutral on this.

Well the Ukrainians are fellow Slavs.  

[The Sunland Lord]

3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Well the Ukrainians are fellow Slavs.  

The Russians are fellow Slavs, too.

To add, Serbia and Russia are traditional allies.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

14 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

The Russians are fellow Slavs, too.

To add, Serbia and Russia are traditional allies.

I’m surprised too frankly.  Serbia has been a staunch Russian ally for a very long time.

[mnedel]

7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m surprised too frankly.  Serbia has been a staunch Russian ally for a very long time.

Serbia is in favor of territorial integrity of Ukraine from the start since we are on good terms with Ukraine and have our own territorial issues. However, we are trying to remain mostly neutral. Neither the government nor the populace want Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia. Our relations with Russia are very friendly and Russia has helped Serbia in the past. We are also culturally and religiously close. Our economy also depends on Russian gas and oil. However, per the words of our president, the EU is threatening serious consequences if we don’t join the sanctions.  Needless to say the Serbian people don’t appreciate being strong-armed by more powerful countries while no one dares to say anything to Turkey, a NATO member abstaining from sanctions, for example.

[SpaceChampion]

 

[JGP]

There's goes the restraint some of us were finding a little hopeful. 

I feel sick. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

China abstaining might be part of their play at being the great peace broker who ended the war without taking a side, and getting major geopolitical brownie points if they pull it off.

India AND Pakistan is interesting. They seem to be rarely on the same side of anything, even when it is not taking sides.

I think I mentioned it in a previous thread, but India is dependent on Russia for a lot of military hardware, AND have been historic allies through the Cold War. Recently, they've tried to divest themselves of this dependence on Russian military and energy but its a longish process. Keep in mind that they did form the QUAD alliance with the US and others (mainly to offset China), so the geopolitical rearrangement is still in progress, but not quite there yet to break all ties with Russia

The Pakistani PM was in Moscow to meet with Putin right when the invasion took place - to talk among other things about a pipeline. Their motivation is also clear.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Eritrea is at war with Ethiopia and Russia gives them guns.

Not exactly.  Eritrea is currently helping the Ethiopian government in its war with Tigrayan rebels.

https://theconversation.com/eritrea-is-involved-in-tigray-to-boost-its-stature-why-the-strategy-could-backfire-175591

But I wouldn't argue about how shady the government in Eritrea us.

32 minutes ago, mnedel said:

However, per the words of our president, the EU is threatening serious consequences if we don’t join the sanctions.  Needless to say the Serbian people don’t appreciate being strong-armed by more powerful countries while no one dares to say anything to Turkey, a NATO member abstaining from sanctions, for example.

Right.  Rather unfortunate, even if I wish the Serbs were more in favour of sanctions (but I can appreciate why not).  And maybe the Serbian President is exaggerating a little for effect but I can definitely see the EU putting a lot pressure on him.  I'm sure the Russian's are trying to make a counter argument but different times.

I don't think Turkey wins any friends in the EU.  It is a very delicate relationship.  Annoy Erdogan and he'll start allowing Russian warships through the Bosporus again, probably.

I'm surprised at South Africa abstaining.

[Varysblackfyre321]

Hmm actually met some one on my shift at work. I got him some sleeping bags that he said he’d give to Ukraine.

Thought he was Ukrainian so I asked him if he was from there.

Turned out he was Russia. My first reaction probably wasn’t the best—it was just going “Ohh” awkwardly. He quickly said he didn’t support the Russian  government.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm actually met some one on my shift at work. I got him some sleeping bags that he said he’d give to Ukraine.

Thought he was Ukrainian so I asked him if he was from there.

Turned out he was Russia. My first reaction probably wasn’t the best—it was just going “Ohh” awkwardly. He quickly said he didn’t support the Russian  government.

As I’ve said I go to church with Russians and Ukrainians.  The Russians are ashamed and the Ukrainians are enraged.

[Fez]

I think Ukraine is suggesting they may conduct operations inside Russia?

If they actually pulled off any successful counterattacks within Russia (presumably some sort of special forces operation), they'd be one heck of a thing.

[Myrddin]

26 minutes ago, Fez said:

If they actually pulled off any successful counterattacks within Russia (presumably some sort of special forces operation), they'd be one heck of a thing.

Or make some headway into dislodging Russia from the eastern "independent states" and/or Crimea. It'd be nice to see Ukraine whole again.

[SpaceChampion]

35 minutes ago, Fez said:

If they actually pulled off any successful counterattacks within Russia (presumably some sort of special forces operation), they'd be one heck of a thing.

I think they already did.  Yes, day 2:   https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44452/massive-fireball-lights-up-the-sky-over-kyiv-as-russian-strikes-rock-the-city

 

[briantw]

12 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

I think they already did.  Yes, day 2:   https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44452/massive-fireball-lights-up-the-sky-over-kyiv-as-russian-strikes-rock-the-city

 

Was gonna say, I think they've already struck at Russia at least twice now.

[Zorral]

Cuba is between the rock and hard place.  Trump literally gave Cuba to Russia.  But now he's not in the WH.  But Russia is IN Cuba.  Cuba is SO close to the United States, and Cuba is so poor.  So poor, you have NO IDEA of how poor, and it can't get resources of any kind, from credit, to cash, to oil, from ANYBODY, because US sanctions under Bolton and Trump made it so, and Biden didn't roll that back as he promised in the election campaign, because (D) Batista Menedez of New Jersey wouldn't vote for the Build Back Better infrastructure bill if Biden did roll back.  But of course, since the trumpreichlicans killed the bill anyway, the bill didn't get passed anyway.

By the way, those who say sanctions and blockades etc. don't work -- look at Cuba.  But then, it's just one tiny island that defied, successfully for 60plus years thanx to one man, for better or for worse, but like all men, he wore out, and he died.

[Mladen]

Just to chime in regarding Serbia. This is an immense can of worms for Serbian government and generally people...

1. Russia is not just a traditional ally. It has been the greatest defender of Serbian territorial integrity (two words that Western nations are throwing so easily these days)

2. Serbs know what war looks like and I doubt anyone would wish that on regular people. We have learned the hard way that at war, politicians and their families thrive and regular people suffer.

3. Ukraine has not recognized independence of Kosovo, which means that Ukraine does in fact, just like Russia, respects the territorial integrity of Serbia. Likewise, Serbia has not recognized the independence of Crimea.

4. Yes, as dramatic as it may sound, Serbia is really between the hammer and the anvil. Russia has strong presence in Serbia, they control Serbia's gas and oil supplies, huge investors... But, so is EU and Serbia has been a candidate. So, basically, it is a narrow line Serbia has to guide. Unlike USA, or Britain, we are talking about small country that is dependent on both East and West.

5. Serbia can condemn war, which I believe is fair to ask and get, but sanctions against Russia... I doubt it will ever pass. The outrage would be significant. Simply, Russia has done much good in Serbia, for this or that reasons.

6. Another problem is the spread of fake news. Couple of days ago, some activists from Albania and Bosnia have accused the soccer fans in Serbia of mocking Ukrainian victims. The picture of fans' choreography has been cut purposefully to omit a movie reference they were doing, leaving blue and yellow colors on screen with graves (it was night on graveyard scene, blue was the night sky and yellow the moon). So, there's a lot of negativity aimed at Serbia's difficult position.

 

This is not a simple or easy decision for Serbia. It is a small country and one needs to understand it doesn't have the power or security many Western nations have. Plus, let's face it, it is kind of difficult to explain people that you want to side with countries that don't respect your own territorial integrity to defend the territorial integrity of someone else from the nation that is defending yours. Yeah, it is that messed up. 

[TrueMetis]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

The heavy snowfall occuring and predicted for Ukraine.  Good or bad for Ukrainian resistance?  Will it freeze the ground and allow a wider advance by Russian forces, freeze the crap out of both side (General Winter entering the fight for Ukraine perhaps?)

Thanks.

Based on some of what I've seen about how badly maintained a lot of Russian vehicles are snowfall will likely make thing worse for them. A lot of their vehicles need to stick to roads or risk getting stuck. Heavy snowfall could make even roads impassable.

 

[The Dragon Demands]

Invasion Day 7

No major Russian advances in the north or east compared to yesterday, in terms of vast sweeps of territory; now they're focused on grinding down the major cities they've besieged or nearly besieged. Major armored column of course at the doorstep of Kiev. Heavy bombing of Kiev in the north and Kharkiv in the east, including cluster bombs and even reports of thermobaric weapons. Significant damage. 

In the southeast, Mariupol on the coast has been completely surrounded. Russians shelled Mariupol for 15 hours today, combination of artillery/MLRS/airstrikes/missiles strikes. Some targeting densely populated residential districts, others knocking out water and power utilities. While the city has already been functionally bypassed, its fall will allow the Russians to secure a land corridor along the coast between Crimea and Donbas. The only good news here, relatively speaking, is to keep in mind that we knew the south was going to fall, because it's within range of Russian naval assets and air assets positioned in Crimea. That farther away they get from the Black Sea, the less fire support they'll get. I'm honestly surprised Mariupol didn't fall within hours of the opening invasion.

Significant movement, however, in the southwest: now generally believed that Russians control major city of Kherson at the mouth of the Dnieper River, though some reports that it's still contested - apparently the Russians "control" the city but have not necessarily "secured" it yet. Regardless, they bypassed it days ago to attack Mykolaiv to the northwest.

The huge news, limited by fog of war, is that there was a major Russian push north from Mykolaiv towards Voznesensk, which even involved armor vs armor engagements between Russian and Ukrainian forces. The next river west of the large Dnieper is the smaller Inhul River, which Mykolaiv is at the mouth of. The next city/town north of that is Nova Odessa, and north of that is Voznesensk. North of Voznesensk is the Youzhnoukrainsk nuclear power plant.

Videos of civilians trying to block roads to Voznesensk, mayor of the city saying they blew the bridges to hinder Russian advance. Apparently they bypassed Nova Odessa to push to Voznesensk, but there's a strong Ukrainian military presence east of Nova Odessa at Bashtanka and counter-attacks have been pushing against the Russians from there.

The whole Voznesensk offensive is a chaotic mess in terms of fog-of-war, it's unclear how far the Russians managed to advance or hold or if they pulled back for now or by how much. The potentially good news is that Russian offensive MIGHT be overextending themselves: looking on a map, it's a long and thin salient pushing deep into Ukrainian territory, far from the coast or other support - Ukrainian counter-attacks might be able to cut them off.
 

 

[baxus]

7 hours ago, Mladen said:

Just to chime in regarding Serbia. This is an immense can of worms for Serbian government and generally people...

1. Russia is not just a traditional ally. It has been the greatest defender of Serbian territorial integrity (two words that Western nations are throwing so easily these days)

2. Serbs know what war looks like and I doubt anyone would wish that on regular people. We have learned the hard way that at war, politicians and their families thrive and regular people suffer.

3. Ukraine has not recognized independence of Kosovo, which means that Ukraine does in fact, just like Russia, respects the territorial integrity of Serbia. Likewise, Serbia has not recognized the independence of Crimea.

4. Yes, as dramatic as it may sound, Serbia is really between the hammer and the anvil. Russia has strong presence in Serbia, they control Serbia's gas and oil supplies, huge investors... But, so is EU and Serbia has been a candidate. So, basically, it is a narrow line Serbia has to guide. Unlike USA, or Britain, we are talking about small country that is dependent on both East and West.

5. Serbia can condemn war, which I believe is fair to ask and get, but sanctions against Russia... I doubt it will ever pass. The outrage would be significant. Simply, Russia has done much good in Serbia, for this or that reasons.

6. Another problem is the spread of fake news. Couple of days ago, some activists from Albania and Bosnia have accused the soccer fans in Serbia of mocking Ukrainian victims. The picture of fans' choreography has been cut purposefully to omit a movie reference they were doing, leaving blue and yellow colors on screen with graves (it was night on graveyard scene, blue was the night sky and yellow the moon). So, there's a lot of negativity aimed at Serbia's difficult position.

 

This is not a simple or easy decision for Serbia. It is a small country and one needs to understand it doesn't have the power or security many Western nations have. Plus, let's face it, it is kind of difficult to explain people that you want to side with countries that don't respect your own territorial integrity to defend the territorial integrity of someone else from the nation that is defending yours. Yeah, it is that messed up. 

1. When exactly was Russia a defender of Serbia and its interest? For well over two centuries, Russia has been using us as a bargaining chip and didn't hesitate to fuck us over whenever it would serve their purpose. Even now, Russia has stated an example of Kosovo as precedent for what they're doing in Ukraine.
2. This I agree with
3. No one has recognised independence of Crimea, since Crimea hasn't even gone for independence. It was taken over by Russia and is now practically a part of Russia (not getting into whether that's right or wrong debate)
4. Serbia has tried to sit in two seats for decades now. We want to consider Kosovo as part of Serbia AND we want to join EU where majority of members recognise Kosovo as an independent country. We want to join EU but we don't want to do things the way EU mandates. We are not in position of Switzerland, we can't afford neutrality and we don't seem to want to come terms with that. We are not "friends with everyone", we are dependant on everyone and we need to placate everyone all the time.
5. Serbia doesn't have to introduce sanctions to Russia, but it's a reasonable question whether EU would reconsider Serbia's status as a candidate for membership. Once again, we need to determine our priorities and interests and move in that direction.
6. That fans choreography clearly had elements you are denying here. Whether it was intentional or not is another question but considering that Crvena Zvezda's main sponsor is Gazprom, that their ultras are nationalist, that Russians are seen as "Orthodox brothers" and all that mythology, it's easy to assume it was. Let's call it like it is, moon could've easily been white (you know, as moon actually is) and the night sky could've been some shade of grey.

Hypocrisy of whole "western world" ganging up to bomb Yugoslavia and forcibly remove part of its territory and the same people crying over Russia doing pretty much the same to Ukraine is not lost on anyone who cares to think for themselves. Still, I'd like to think that most people would consider NATO actions in '99 to have been bad rather than thinking Russia's actions today are good.