Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, baxus said:

What all of us (that "fairly known Ukrainian screenplay writer" in particular) need to keep in mind is that "noble Elves vs foul Orcs" works in Tolkien novels only, and should be kept there.

 

Hmm you’ve kinda reminded me of the recent government propaganda from Ukraine showcasing the explicit Nazi membership of the military  describing the invaders as orcs whilst they do a weapon tutorial.

I fear that even if Ukraine repels Russia illiberalism may still win the day if we’re not careful. 

[Fez]

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah.  On that account, Pelosi said yesterday the Ukraine aid would be added to the omnibus.  It's true that's probably the quickest way to do it, but that means it won't even get passed until late next week at the earliest.  

Not ideal, that. But DoD has already talked about sending stuff under the authorizations they do have; plus there's the aid that various Western European countries have promised. But for the most part, there haven't been follow-up stories. I hope a lot more has arrived than has been reported and it's just being kept quiet. But it's not just the lethal aid, which I get keeping a little quiet, its also the humanitarian aid. From some of the stories I've read there's growing concern that sometime next week there's going to start being major food shortages, even in the western cities that are mostly untouched. Another report I saw said that Ukraine was about to face a massive insulin shortage.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

The Russians haven’t declared war on Ukraine.  They haven’t (to my knowledge) declared a blockade of Ukraine.  Couldn’t we legitimately, in this circumstance supply arms to Ukraine by sea?

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

But for the most part, there haven't been follow-up stories.

Here's one from yesterday which is about as detailed as I've found.  As for humanitarian aid, yeah, I'd hope to see more on that soon too.

[Toth]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The Russians haven’t declared war on Ukraine.  They haven’t (to my knowledge) declared a blockade of Ukraine.  Couldn’t we legitimately, in this circumstance supply arms to Ukraine by sea?

If you wanna provoke a Cuban Missile Crisis style blockade-runner standoff, sure, go ahead!

It should also be noted that Russia by now controls almost all of the coastal areas, so I don't see how that would even work out if the Russian navy wasn't sitting all around Crimea.

[Heartofice]

18 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm you’ve kinda reminded me of the recent government propaganda from Ukraine showcasing the explicit Nazi membership of the military  describing the invaders as orcs whilst they do a weapon tutorial.

I fear that even if Ukraine repels Russia illiberalism may still win the day if we’re not careful. 

You should check out the Russian propaganda then.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 minute ago, Toth said:

If you wanna provoke a Cuban Missile Crisis style blockade-runner standoff, sure, go ahead!

It should also be noted that Russia by now controls almost all of the coastal areas, so I don't see how that would even work out if the Russian navy wasn't sitting all around Crimea.

Odessa is under attack but we could steam for its harbor.  It would put the Russians in a very uncomfortable situation.  I’m surprised they (again to my knowledge) haven’t declared a blockade of Ukraine.

[Heartofice]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Odessa is under attack but we could steam for its harbor.  It would put the Russians in a very uncomfortable situation.  I’m surprised they (again to my knowledge) haven’t declared a blockade of Ukraine.

What happens if one of our ships gets sunk by over zealous and frustrated Russians? Thats a very thin line. 

(wasn't an estonian ship already sunk today?)

[Filippa Eilhart]

An Estonian cargo ship just got sank off Odessa, so...

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

3 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

What happens if one of our ships gets sunk by over zealous and frustrated Russians? Thats a very thin line. 

(wasn't an estonian ship already sunk today?)

Isn’t that an Art. 5 act of war?  There is no declared blockade (to my knowledge) and therefore Odessa is an open harbor.  Until a blockade is declared and neutral shipping given time to clear the area of combat… that’s a huge violation of the law of blockade.

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Isn’t that an Art. 5 act of war?

Shooting passenger planes down is also an act of war and nothing came of that. 

[JoannaL]

About the "all Russians are to blame"  (and the Ukrainian letter to former Russsian friends)

No, not on an individual level.

But - we had, obviously, much discussion about this in Germany and I think  a nation shares responsibility for its leaders and system. It is the nation/people who gets this person/system in place and also the nation/people who keeps it there. So there is responsibility to get this right, to not sit back and say: well I am a good person and not harming anyone, it is not my fault that my government does something evil. You can NOT become NOT responsible for your government even if you have not elected that government and have to listen to propaganda all the time.

Obviously it is much harder to resist and protest when the system is already autocratic and broken. so for the democratic western states where protest is always possible without fear for personal reprecussions, there is even less excuse to not fight about system failures or evil autocrats who want to destroy the democracy (like e.g. an election theft).

Still, although this is tough, the Russians are responsible for their system. That does not mean that one should blame every one individually. This does also not mean that every Russian is a murderer because Putin is a murderer. Resistance in a dictatorship is hard. Who of us knows if he/she were brave enough under the circumstances? The responsibility doesn't go away though.

[Werthead]

14 hours ago, mnedel said:

Serbia is in favor of territorial integrity of Ukraine from the start since we are on good terms with Ukraine and have our own territorial issues. However, we are trying to remain mostly neutral. Neither the government nor the populace want Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia. Our relations with Russia are very friendly and Russia has helped Serbia in the past. We are also culturally and religiously close. Our economy also depends on Russian gas and oil. However, per the words of our president, the EU is threatening serious consequences if we don’t join the sanctions.  Needless to say the Serbian people don’t appreciate being strong-armed by more powerful countries while no one dares to say anything to Turkey, a NATO member abstaining from sanctions, for example.

There's a lot of moving pieces here in terms of politics. Turkey is a NATO member and is providing Ukraine with one of their most successful weapons platforms for killing Russian troops and have also closed the Bosporus to Russian military shipping (not that they need it at the moment, and will likely only need to transition after the conflict ends), which are all massive problems for the Kremlin. However, Turkey has also worked with Russia (kind of) over Syria and resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, and Erdogan and Putin have an on-again, off-again relationship. By abstaining on the vote, I wonder if Turkey and Erdogan are setting themselves up as possible mediators in resolving the conflict, like China.

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If they actually pulled off any successful counterattacks within Russia (presumably some sort of special forces operation), they'd be one heck of a thing.

They have, at least twice, conducted two aerial strikes on Russian airfields. Both are relatively close to the border, though.

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There appears to be an active counteroffensive going on in Ukraine, particularly around Kyiv, with the general staff of the armed forces announcing they were shifting from a defensive to a counteroffensive posture. They seem to have pushed the Russians out of at least one suburb.

I was wondering when this was going to happen. Ukraine's military hasn't been degraded by anything like what it should have been by now. A lot of their best troops are in the east and putting up a huge fight there (mostly against separatists, which the Russians seem to be using in lieu of their own troops, which is both a good idea for minimising their casualties on that front and a bad one because those separatists aren't very good), and seem to be much more at risk of defeat through being cut off and surrounded than actual battlefield losses.

However, Ukraine should have significant numbers of troops, many of them resupplied from out of Ukraine, based in the west of the country. Now is a good time to instigate a counter-offensive, especially at the lines coming into Kyiv and also around Odesa in the south, maybe with a view to retaking Kherson. Also, as the Russians advance further west, the more they'll fall under NATO AWACS and monitoring umbrellas in Poland and Romania, which gives the Ukrainians a massive intelligence advantage. Plus those 80-odd new planes should come online in the near future, giving Ukraine potentially an aerial advantage, at least over the west of the country.

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https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aeg4jxW_700bwp.webp

 

This is the infamous military map showing operations planned for Moldova, which people don't seem as concerned about as they should be.

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I fear that even if Ukraine repels Russia illiberalism may still win the day if we’re not careful. 

I've often wondered if they've kept the Azov Battalion around solely so they can give them up in a peace deal, or let them get killed on the front lines (which may have happened already given their primary area of operations is one of the most hotly contested).

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Odessa is under attack but we could steam for its harbor.  It would put the Russians in a very uncomfortable situation.  I’m surprised they (again to my knowledge) haven’t declared a blockade of Ukraine.

Odesa. Odessa is the Russian spelling. Odesa was almost attacked but reportedly the marine units assigned to the landing mutinied and the Russians had to abort. There were reports one rather aging Russian destroyer was sitting outside the harbour, but later rumours it had been sunk by a Ukrainian missile or aircraft, or had been moved somewhere else.

You could probably get into Odesa rather easily, but how helpful that is is unclear, as it could be cut off from the rest of Ukraine now that Kherson has fallen. The best prospect now for supplies is to send them to Lviv, from where they can head into Kyiv from the south-west and Odesa from the north.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Just now, Luzifer's right hand said:

Shooting passenger planes down is also an act of war and nothing came of that. 

The Russians had the “deniability” of “that was the Ukrainians… that was the Rebels”… this is a Russian ship sinking a non-beligerant.

[Toth]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Isn’t that an Art. 5 act of war?  There is not declared blockade and therefore Odessa is an open harbor.  Until a blockade is declared and neutral shipping given time to clear the area of combat… that’s a huge violation of the law of blockade.

If you send in a cargo ship without heavy escorts, it will just be seized with some excuse and then you've given Putin free weapons.

[Varysblackfyre321]

11 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

You should check out the Russian propaganda then.

I understand why in the present circumstances the Ukrainian government would be reluctant to turn away any help even from degenerates.

But there still  needs to be concentrated effort to limit their influence or exposure especially as they’re relying on support from the global stage.

Honestly I want Russia out of Ukraine partly because they’re bringing a lot more Nazis in the country.

Why do you think it’s bad to not want someone to be around Nazis?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Werthead

Thank you for the correction on the spelling of Odesa.  I was thinking ships can bring in much heavier equipment than Trucks or trains and in larger quantities… same with humanitarian suppiles.

[Spockydog]

42 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sure, we should be better. I was just pointing out generalized xenophobia exists exactly everywhere on the planet. Should we oppose it? Of course. Should we be shocked that this is a reality? Not at all. 

The Fear of the Other. Evolution has baked that shit into us. The trick is being aware of it, and as Ty says, doing all we can to negate it.

 

 

[Heartofice]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I understand why in the present circumstances the Ukrainian government would be turn away any help even from degenerates.

But there still  needs to be concentrated effort to limit their influence or exposure especially as they’re relying on support from the global stage.

Why do you think it’s bad to not want someone to be around Nazis?

I'm sure there is some element of neo nazi influence inside parts of the Ukrainian government and military. How much is not clear, but I doubt it's anything like the level you would suspect if you watched any broadcasts or news coming out of Russian sources, who are using their whole military operation as an attempt to 'de-nazify' Ukraine in order to mask his crimes.

I don't think it's very helpful to start confusing matters by buying Putin's line on this. The real important thing to pay attention to is the invasion of one country by another. 

[Werthead]

Interesting. CDPR has a lot of fans in Russia, to the point that in the run-up to the release of Cyberpunk 2077 they had Russian-language-only previews, livestreams, documentaries, and did a whole documentary about the Russian voice acting cast and how they brought the characters to life. The Witcher games are massive, and Russia is one of CDPR's most important markets.