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Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes


Kalbear

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7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Werthead

Thank you for the correction on the spelling of Odesa.  I was thinking ships can bring in much heavier equipment than Trucks or trains and in larger quantities… same with humanitarian suppiles.

Turkey has recognised the Russian invasion as a war. That means it can deny passage under the Montreux Convention.

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On the counterattack front, I assume this must mean something. But I don't know enough about the various disposition of forces to have any idea if its an important victory. Maybe it alleviates some of the pressure on Kharkiv?

 

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Also signs of a big naval buildup along Crimea, multiple big landing ships seen off Sevastopol and the coast. Thinking is the Russians are going to go either for a massed landing at Odesa or try to storm and finish off Mariupol (or both).

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Just now, 3CityApache said:

In the stock exchange report they said their sales in Russia were 5,4% in the last 12 months, and 3,7% in Belarus.

I did say a lot of fans, not necessarily a lot of sales ;) Russia is one of the big gaming piracy hubs in the world, and CDPR have always freely admitted taking a hit in piracy in return for customer loyalty in sales.

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6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

To all shipping or just to warships?

In times of peace all civilian ships can enter the Black Sea. At least that's what the Wikipedia page says. My understanding is that in times of war Turkey can deny passage. But it would definitely apply to any kind of escort.

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21 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I'm sure there is some element of neo nazi influence inside parts of the Ukrainian government and military.

My grievance wasn’t merely they had Nazis in their ranks.

It’s that they used them and their racism in their (Ukraines) PR.

 

21 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

How much is not clear, but I doubt it's anything like the level you would suspect if you watched any broadcasts or news coming out of Russian sources

Of course not even if it was Russia loves Nazis so that’s not why they’re invading

21 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I don't think it's very helpful to start confusing matters by buying Putin's line on this

I don’t think matters should be confused; hence wanting any far-right elements in the military and government to not explicitly be apart of the government’s public outreach. 
 

 

21 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

The real important thing to pay attention to is the invasion of one country by another. 

It’s also important to insure there’s a framing of the situation as poor,belabored, proud democratic nation vs powerful expansionist fascist empire, rather than smaller group of fascists vs bigger group of fascists to which like it or not will make people more uncomfortable to support the invaded.

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3 minutes ago, Loge said:

In times of peace all civilian ships can enter the Black Sea. At least that's what the Wikipedia page says. My understanding is that in times of war Turkey can deny passage. But it would definitely apply to any kind of escort.

Doesn’t NATO already have warships in the Black Sea?

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Doesn’t NATO already have warships in the Black Sea?

Well, Romanian and Bulgarian for sure.

But if Polish sea power is any indicator, I wouldn't count on much. ;)

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5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I did say a lot of fans, not necessarily a lot of sales ;) Russia is one of the big gaming piracy hubs in the world, and CDPR have always freely admitted taking a hit in piracy in return for customer loyalty in sales.

It's extremely low down the list of issues right now, but all this does make me wonder what will happen to Owlcat Games; makers of both Pathfinder games. They are a Russian studio (with some staff also in Cyprus I think), so naturally they haven't said anything except back on Feb. 28 that they were no longer going to be using social media for anything and that the planned DLC for their latest game should still release in March.

But can they even make sales through Steam anymore? I've no idea.

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6 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

It’s also important to insure there’s a framing of the situation as poor,belabored, proud democratic nation vs powerful expansionist fascist empire, rather than smaller group of fascists vs bigger group of fascists to which like it or not will make people more uncomfortable to support the invaded.

I'm pretty meh on this to be honest. We are seeing a lot of propaganda on both sides, and narratives being built up around the war. I say we try and ignore them as best we can, but also not be surprised or outraged by them. The only real narrative is that Russia has invaded Ukraine and we shouldn't be ok with that.

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The German Wikipedia article is more specific. Turkey can only block civilian ships belonging to countries Turkey is at war with or ships that would aid Turkey's enemies. So a cargo ship probably could pass. But it probably wouldn't reach the port. Maybe a Romanian port. And it would take a week to get there from the US anyway.

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2 hours ago, 3CityApache said:

And I agree of course it's pretty fucking difficult in Russia. But if the protests were not in hundreds or thousands, but in hundreds of thousands or millions, the story would be quite substantially different.

I'm not denying that IF millions of people flooded the streets of Moscow, St Petersburg and other big Russian cities, overthrowing the government would be a possibility.

My point is that getting that many people informed and organised is impossible at the moment. Some baby steps may be taken but it would take a lot of time, a lot of infrastructure, and with every day the chances of authorities figuring out what's going on and shutting it down would become more likely.

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Russia's, February Revolution.

Edit: Also Germany's and Austria-Hungary's, a little over a year later. France's, a whole bunch of times.

Sure. Once we get back in time 100 years (may actually happen if nuclear weapons get used) we'll discuss that as a viable option.

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I don't know why the US or any country would want to ship supplies into Ukraine (which would likely be seized by Russia) when they can just send them by truck or rail to Lviv.  Yes, it is a little more difficult than doing it by ship, but not vastly so.  I actually am starting to wonder if the Russians are even planning/hoping to take Lviv and the western half of Ukraine.  Both the conquest and the occupation will get dramatically more difficult the further west they go.  They might prefer to have a rump state Ukraine than even attempting that. 

And all that is just looking at the Russian side of things, irrespective of whether they have the capability to actually subjugate the western third of the country, which is increasingly an open question. 

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

It's extremely low down the list of issues right now, but all this does make me wonder what will happen to Owlcat Games; makers of both Pathfinder games. They are a Russian studio (with some staff also in Cyprus I think), so naturally they haven't said anything except back on Feb. 28 that they were no longer going to be using social media for anything and that the planned DLC for their latest game should still release in March.

But can they even make sales through Steam anymore? I've no idea.

Owlcat are keeping their head down and trying to avoid antagonizing anyone. I think they can make sales, but I don't know how they would transfer them to their account (cryptocurrency maybe?).

Ice-Pick Lodge, also a Russian studio (maker of Pathologic series), in contrast made a super-ballsy condemnation of the aggression, for which I hope they won't suffer consequences:

https://postlmg.cc/hf2MpsFF

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Some maps doing the rounds showing Ukraine being split into three states. Ukraine as we know it is reduced to the western half of the country, but loses the entire coastal strip. Odesa to Mariupol become Russian cities connecting Crimea and the Donbas to Transnistria. Entire north-east is taken over by the two separatist republics, with Kharkiv possibly annexed by Russia or the separatists. Kyiv remains the capital of "actual" Ukraine, and Lviv becomes its second-largest city.

This gives all the ports and the richest coal and gas regions of Ukraine, which have not so far been tapped, to Russia.

Whether that's an actual plan or not is unclear, but it's certainly one idea. The heartland of pro-EU, pro-NATO Ukraine remains free, but the rest of the country becomes Russian or a Russian buffer state.

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12 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some maps doing the rounds showing Ukraine being split into three states. Ukraine as we know it is reduced to the western half of the country, but loses the entire coastal strip. Odesa to Mariupol become Russian cities connecting Crimea and the Donbas to Transnistria. Entire north-east is taken over by the two separatist republics, with Kharkiv possibly annexed by Russia or the separatists. Kyiv remains the capital of "actual" Ukraine, and Lviv becomes its second-largest city.

This gives all the ports and the richest coal and gas regions of Ukraine, which have not so far been tapped, to Russia.

Whether that's an actual plan or not is unclear, but it's certainly one idea. The heartland of pro-EU, pro-NATO Ukraine remains free, but the rest of the country becomes Russian or a Russian buffer state.

Yeah maybe.  I had thought that Russia would insist on Kyiv becoming Kiev and being the capital of the fake Ukraine which is now a Russian puppet.  Given the amount of blood that is likely to be shed to take the city, it is hard to imagine they are going to let it go. 

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