Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes

[Kalbear]

To @Gorn- sometimes its as simple as the things being broadly popular and wanted.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

10 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

No idea, but the German army is in no shape or form combat ready. 

Aged/failing equipment. A few years ago they had to rent choppers from the ADAC (German equivalent to the AAA), so that their pilots could get the neccessary flying hours to keep their licenses from expiring.

I can't stress clearly enough, how pathetic the state of the German army is.

Edit. just checked that bit of news hite the public in 2017, and they were still forced to do it last year.

Wow… the Germans (West Germans) used to be pretty tough from what my friends in the US Military said back in the day.  It is horrible that belief in peace can be so damaging.

[mnedel]

17 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Any speculation as to how long it will take the Germans to get up to speed? The chip shortage will not help.

Aren’t Germany and Japan banned from having a proper military by numerous treaties after WW2?

[Toth]

Since I have the habit of only writing up the very last post on a page before it gets buried and since the impression of the war in Germany has been brought up, I guess it might be useful to already pull this post back up:

Spoiler

1 hour ago, Toth said:

Can I just say the atmosphere in Berlin is... strange. Both uplifting and somewhat terrifying. Central station has been turned into a hub for Ukrainian refugees with flag-sporting arrows, signposts and hastily erected handwritten Cyrillic whiteboard information panels everywhere. The ad screens also use the Ukrainian flags as screensavers in between calls to donate blood or money. My mailbox is full of people organizing the collecting of humanitarian supplies to send to the border. Heck, I already donated money and I never donated to anything, mostly because I still got this in the back of my head that I should save up for a home of my own.

On the terrifying side of things every time I travel in the train I'm seeing fully packed up soldiers somewhere. It looks very much like they recalled everyone from vacations or something (I haven't heard anything about reservists mobilizing though). In any case, it feels very much like we are bracing for the worst. Heck, the people in the train are eerily quiet, mostly whispering about Putin's intentions if speaking at all (the horrible screeching "FIND GOD NOW" lady proselytizing with a microphone who annoyed the fuck out of everyone today notwithstanding).

The atmosphere is clearly very, very, very different to how it was last week where some had laughed it all off as some bogus American conspiracy and now the mood is somewhere between confusion what is going on, fear (the news shouting "WW3 is near!" endlessly without much explanation of the background isn't helping in that regard) and a determined idea that we are somewhat responsible for what is happening there.

We are still buying gas from Russia though. For some reason.

And somehow limit our weapon deliveries to defective junk from the 70s because we have nothing else to spare. -.-

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, mnedel said:

Aren’t Germany and Japan banned from having a proper military by numerous treaties after WW2?

Yes.  The Japanese have aircraft carriers now.  This has been “winked at” for some time.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Quote

Bloomberg cites a European intelligence official as saying that Moscow has drafted strategies to break morale in order to discourage Ukrainians from fighting back as cities fall under the Kremlin’s control.

The official said Moscow plans to crack down on protest, detain opponents and potentially carry out public executions, the news agency writes.

I know things are tough to verify right now, but public executions have such an emotional impact that it may cause more pushback from the rest of the world than Putin anticipates.

[Corvinus85]

3 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I know things are tough to verify right now, but public executions have such an emotional impact that it may cause more pushback from the rest of the world than Putin anticipates.

Nor will it break morale, just force Ukranians to switch to more partizan style underground tactics instead of openly defying Russian soldiers.

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, mnedel said:

Aren’t Germany and Japan banned from having a proper military by numerous treaties after WW2?

Not really.  Germany and Japan are ranked 7th and 8th (or 9th) in the world in military expenditures, respectively.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Regarding how disturbing it is to find that news of the invasion isn't getting to the Russian public.

Perhaps it serves a larger good that Russian sports, lecturers, and cultural events are getting cancelled?

Surely when so and so skater/dancer/artist/futballer/etc. has their tour cancelled it is discussed amongst entourages, family and gets out into the community that something is not quite right and normal.

Perhaps in a greater good way news of Putin's invasion and the Ukraine injustice can spread to more Russians and in a way that the media censors cannot stop.

Bits and pieces of these stories can sear into the Russian conscious, they can deduce Putin and his army are up to some bullshit that is not what the govt is claiming.

When I view the Russian backlash through such a lense I think it is for the better.

[Toth]

8 minutes ago, DMC said:

Not really.  Germany and Japan are ranked 7th and 8th (or 9th) in the world in military expenditures, respectively.

Yeah, but the military expenditures of Germany are notoriously funneled into 'advisor fees' and shiny new hardware projects that keep getting more demands added to them, tripling and quadrupling the costs for what should be very basic APCs and stuff. Add to that being stingy in terms of maintenance leading to the number of operational jets and tanks to barely reach into the low double digit numbers. Aaaaand a very... top-heavy command structure with barely any grunts in contrast to a high amount of career officers, so you can imagine how the salaries are distributed.

[Fez]

14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Yes.  The Japanese have aircraft carriers now.  This has been “winked at” for some time.

IIRC, Japan had to renounce having "offensive military forces" as well as the sovereign right of being able to declare offensive wars. But they can have anything they want for self-defense (and the definition of "self-defense" has been stretched to include allies as well).

I don't think Germany ever officially gave up any rights though. It just didn't have any military for the first decade or so after WWII. And it's been self-restrictions on its military since then, not outside requirements.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Toth said:

Yeah, but the military expenditures of Germany are notoriously funneled into 'advisor fees' and shiny new hardware projects that keep getting more demands added to them, tripling and quadrupling the costs for what should be very basic APCs and stuff.

I'm just saying there's nothing WWII-related stopping Germany from having a better military.  Indeed, if we count the 100 billion pledge, Germany will have the third most well-funded military in the world.

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

But they can have anything they want for self-defense (and the definition of "self-defense" has been stretched to include allies as well).

Yeah I've always found it amusing the Japanese military is called the "Self-Defense Forces."  But hey, guess we all did that after WWII in some way - the Pentagon is the Department of Defense.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

IIRC, Japan had to renounce having "offensive military forces" as well as the sovereign right of being able to declare offensive wars. But they can have anything they want for self-defense (and the definition of "self-defense" has been stretched to include allies as well).

I don't think Germany ever officially gave up any rights though. It just didn't have any military for the first decade or so after WWII. And it's been self-restrictions on its military since then, not outside requirements.

Well nukes, Germany voluntarily gave up on the right to build those. Germany signed up to the NPT in 1969, and finally ratified it in 1975.

[Toth]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm just saying there's nothing WWII-related stopping Germany from having a better military.  Indeed, if we count the 100 billion pledge, Germany will have the third most well-funded military in the world.

What about the very treaty Putin accuses NATO of having violated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Final_Settlement_with_Respect_to_Germany

Germany apparently does have a set limit of 370.000 troops it is allowed to have, but we are currently at 180.000 total.

[Werthead]

Russia is currently showing absolutely no signs of the continent-wide, mass mobilisation required for them to even vaguely consider invading NATO countries. Even if Poland and Germany were defended by 4 Leopards and 3 Eurofighters, Russia would comfortably need 2-3 million troops, thousands of tanks and thousands of aircraft (including hundreds of top-tier aircraft) to even think about that kind of offensive. These forces simply do not exist at present, and Russia is not going to be in a position to afford them for a long, long time.

There's also I think a serious miscalculation. If NATO is attacked, NATO will defend itself to the hilt, period. Putin then has to ask himself if he will use nuclear weapons in a first strike capacity as an aggressor, and how far he wants that to go up the flagpole. Burning the planet rather than letting Russia itself fall is understandable (well, from his POV anyway). Burning the planet because he can't capture Tallinn or Warsaw or Berlin is another thing altogether, and something I can't really see standing with all of his generals and ministers, even if some of them go along with it.

Quote

I know things are tough to verify right now, but public executions have such an emotional impact that it may cause more pushback from the rest of the world than Putin anticipates.

Worth noting that that the Taliban in Afghanistan carried out televised public executions in football stadiums during their first rule and the world really didn't give a shit.

Obviously coming on the heels of occupying Ukraine, that's a different matter.

[Ran]

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

4 minutes ago, Ran said:

 

That's Dozhd the TV station from the documentary I mentioned yesterday.

@Ser Scot A Ellison

[Red Tiger]

15 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm just saying there's nothing WWII-related stopping Germany from having a better military.  Indeed, if we count the 100 billion pledge, Germany will have the third most well-funded military in the world.

Actually there is, namely that the people absolutely hate and in some ways fear everything that reminds them of...THAT time. They do everything to stay away from their military history. The minute a politician champions a strong, modernized military, he's gonna get the wrath of god on his ass, in the form of public opinion.

[IFR]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Yeah it was really depressing a couple years ago when most of my class of undergrads said they weren't even born on 9/11. 

I missed it by a month.

47 minutes ago, Toth said:

We are still buying gas from Russia though. For some reason.

The ill-advised crusade to avoid nuclear energy may have something to do with it. Germany is a special case of tragicomedy unfolding right now.

[DMC]

21 minutes ago, Toth said:

What about the very treaty Putin accuses NATO of having violated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Final_Settlement_with_Respect_to_Germany

Germany apparently does have a set limit of 370.000 troops it is allowed to have, but we are currently at 180.000 total.

6 minutes ago, Red Tiger said:

Actually there is, namely that the people absolutely hate and in some ways fear everything that reminds them of...THAT time.

The question was about WWII treaties.  Although looking at the text of the 370,000 provision is interesting (Article 3 Section 2).