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Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes


Kalnestk Oblast
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9 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I suspect now that Putin will not look to bite off a NATO country unless Trump or another friendly face gets into the White House; if they do, then all bets are off.

While downstream effects like gas prices and sanctions (and, well, time) may change things, I think the last week has made clear Trump is unique regarding Putin seeing a friendly face in the White House again.  All other US politicians, even Trumpists, can read polls just as well as the rest of us.

:ph34r:'ed by Fez.

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20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’ve actually had to stop listening to ongoing coverage.  It makes me so angry that there is nothing we can safely do to help the Ukrainians without serious risk of all holy hell breaking loose.  
 

That's what Putin wants everyone to think. Being able to demonstrate Western impotence to militarily respond sets a worrying precedent for future potential aggressors, effectively making nuclear deterrence a one-sided affair. Drone strikes on Russian military targets within Ukraine could have been a it seems the US feels able to conduct such strikes without an official declaration of war in other situations. Of course should be done only with the consent of the Ukraine govt, since it is still a military strike in Ukraine territory even if aimed at invading forces.

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5 minutes ago, Fez said:

Speaking of right-wing, Marco Rubio has been a regular tweeter about this war. He claims he's not sharing anything classified he gets as part of the Gang of 8, but he has certainly seemed better informed than most.

I'm not gonna go through his feed to find it, but Rubio seemed to suggest he'd been briefed on intelligence that indicates Putin really is off his rocker in a tweet the other day.  Of course, I'd take that with a huge grain of salt.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

While downstream effects like gas prices and sanctions (and, well, time) may change things, I think the last week has made clear Trump is unique regarding Putin seeing a friendly face in the White House again.  All other US politicians, even Trumpists, can read polls just as well as the rest of us.

The question is whether we can avoid letting anyone in the Trump family into the WH ever again.  Because while the anti-Russia winds are blowing hard, they'll turn right back around in Trump is back calling the shots.

I will say that Trump really stepped in it with his Pro-Putin statements the past week.  Whoever he faces in the 2024 primary will be going to go hard on this issue.  It probably won't be as prominent in the news in 2024 as it is today, but it could still matter. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

The question is whether we can avoid letting anyone in the Trump family into the WH ever again.

I'm definitely not worried about Ivanka or Bateman getting the nomination in 2024.  Maybe down the road in 2028, but that's a hell of a long time for Putin to wait.  His only hope is senior.

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

He claims he's not sharing anything classified he gets as part of the Gang of 8, but he has certainly seemed better informed than most. And

I have a distinct recollection of someone noting this earlier in the campaign, that the Russians have limited amounts of rockets and  missiles and that it would take a deal of time for them to replace them all once they exhausted the initial supply. It may have been Rubio, actually.

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4 minutes ago, Ran said:

I have a distinct recollection of someone noting this earlier in the campaign, that the Russians have limited amounts of rockets and  missiles and that it would take a deal of time for them to replace them all once they exhausted the initial supply. It may have been Rubio, actually.

The Russians have a limited supply of a lot of things.  They seem to be avoiding deploying their best aircraft or best tanks because they have limited numbers of them and don't want to risk them getting knocked out.  They don't have enough trucks to supply their troops, and the ones they do have keep breaking down, causing horrendous traffic jams.  Vehicles are getting abandoned for lack of fuel in the first week of the war.  It's very possible I'm going overboard in my criticism, but the evidence is growing that the Russian military is looking more and more like a Potemkin village.  Ever corner that could be cut, has been cut so that someone could put more money in their pockets.  The result is an army with no fuel, crappy tires, 30 year old vehicles, expired food and troops that are barely trained.  Because all of those things cost money, and instead that money is frozen in some asshole's bank account. 

I know that the military industry is a source of waste and corruption in every country, but what we're seeing thus far is pretty embarrassing.  If the Russians were running out of supplies in the third month of the war, that would be something else, but this is day 7.  This problem is only gonna get worse. 

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

It might also well be that Putin doesn't have long left: he is 69 years old, turns 70 in a few months and is under very obvious, immense stress.

Nothing takes out these mfers, ever, except either their own hand, like Hitler, or a stake in the heart.

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11 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The Russians have a limited supply of a lot of things.  They seem to be avoiding deploying their best aircraft or best tanks because they have limited numbers of them and don't want to risk them getting knocked out.  They don't have enough trucks to supply their troops, and the ones they do have keep breaking down, causing horrendous traffic jams.  Vehicles are getting abandoned for lack of fuel in the first week of the war.  It's very possible I'm going overboard in my criticism, but the evidence is growing that the Russian military is looking more and more like a Potemkin village.  Ever corner that could be cut, has been cut so that someone could put more money in their pockets.  The result is an army with no fuel, crappy tires, 30 year old vehicles, expired food and troops that are barely trained.  Because all of those things cost money, and instead that money is frozen in some asshole's bank account. 

I know that the military industry is a source of waste and corruption in every country, but what we're seeing thus far is pretty embarrassing.  If the Russians were running out of supplies in the third month of the war, that would be something else, but this is day 7.  This problem is only gonna get worse. 

They look great at parade though.

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10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

hey don't have enough trucks to supply their troops, and the ones they do have keep breaking down,

Speaking of breaking down trucks, there was an interesting Twitter thread from someone who has experience with maintenance of military vehicles, and he feels that evidence suggests a lot of the armored vehicles Russia sent over have been very poorly maintained:

 

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1 minute ago, Corvinus85 said:

They look great at parade though.

I can't verify it's accuracy, but this thread:

makes the case that parades/looking good are quite literally the only point of Russian paratroopers at least. Which is why their operations have gone so badly Ukraine. They're a domestic intimidation tool, not a military asset.

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4 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

And Russia is a country in which every channel is Fox News

 

My dad just whatsapped a video where a Polish chap shows what Russian telly's doing, and it was a soldier (or supposed soldier) getting in front of the country and telling them that they're being greeted as conquering heroes, with smiles and tears, people can't contain their joy. Just absolute madness. 

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8 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

And Russia is a country in which every channel is Fox News

On that note (this has nothing to do with the current sanctions)

https://www.thedailybeast.com/former-fox-news-producter-for-sean-hannity-jack-hanick-indicted-for-helping-russia?ref=home

Quote

The Department of Justice on Thursday revealed that Jack Hanick was quietly arrested in London on Feb. 3 for dodging U.S. sanctions by helping a sanctioned Russian oligarch, Konstantin Malofeyev, start his right-wing Tsargrad TV.

 

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12 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

My dad just whatsapped a video where a Polish chap shows what Russian telly's doing, and it was a soldier (or supposed soldier) getting in front of the country and telling them that they're being greeted as conquering heroes, with smiles and tears, people can't contain their joy. Just absolute madness. 

Fucking insanity, to read this, after making myself finish watching a video [that I won't post here] showing multiple dead people [claim is 33 fatalities] from a missile strike on a civilian area in Chernihiv.

Like, I'm shaking with fucking rage right now. I just cannot even.

Edited by JEORDHl
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And now it's being reported there's a fire at the facility. 

Great strat, eh, let's knock out power to a significant portion of Ukraine, and hey, why not, let's whip up a nuclear catastrophe. 

win-win 

 

edit:

 

Edited by JEORDHl
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