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Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes


Kalnestk Oblast
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5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s interesting… not only are they saying Russia doesn’t have “Air Superiority”… they’re saying Ukraine does.  Why isn’t the UkAF pounding the hell out of Russian ground forces.  That “convoy” is a sitting duck.

I feel like they do harass it, it's just too huge, too close to the air bases in Belarus and also likely has some AA vehicles among the trucks.

Edited by Toth
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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s interesting… not only are they saying Russia doesn’t have “Air Superiority”… they’re saying Ukraine does.  Why isn’t the UkAF pounding the hell out of Russian ground forces.  That “convoy” is a sitting duck.

I really don't think that is true.  Ukraine's air force still exists, which is impressive, but nothing I have seen indicates that they are winning the battle over the country.  If Ukraine actually can hold air superiority over most of the country then the invasion is doomed.  Russia is not going to let that happen - they'll deploy their top of the line aircraft which they have been thus far holding in reserve. 

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55 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And maybe (hopefully!) we're still living in that world.  But Putin is acting very strangely and making some inexplicable decisions this past month, so it is hard to assume that this is a line he wouldn't dare cross. 

I think the hope remains that even though his inner circle are all "yes-men", even they would balk at a nuclear first strike against a non-existential foe.

But who knows? My opinion is if even one nuke launches it's only a matter of days (at most) before thousands of nukes launch.

4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s interesting… not only are they saying Russia doesn’t have “Air Superiority”… they’re saying Ukraine does.  Why isn’t the UkAF pounding the hell out of Russian ground forces.  That “convoy” is a sitting duck.

I think they have been hitting the convey. But it also sounds like it's not a major threat right now. The biggest concern to my outside eyes are the Russian advances in the south.

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39 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I really don't think that is true.  Ukraine's air force still exists, which is impressive, but nothing I have seen indicates that they are winning the battle over the country.  If Ukraine actually can hold air superiority over most of the country then the invasion is doomed.  Russia is not going to let that happen - they'll deploy their top of the line aircraft which they have been thus far holding in reserve. 

That’s my point.  I think it is significant that Russia doesn’t have Air Superiority 9 days in… but that doesn’t mean Ukraine does.  It think the Air war is still contested.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison
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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s my point.  I think it is significant that Russia doesn’t have Air Superiority 9 days in… but that doesn’t mean Ukraine does.  It think the Air war still contested.

I think a reporter was just typing too fast on twitter. Or whichever US military official was speaking simply misspoke.

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53 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The first non-military option would have to be an embargo on all Russian goods and potentially on every country that buys Russian oil (so basically forcing China’s hand). After that it seems all options probably lead to WW3 or capitulation.

It might also behoove the West to remind Putin that if he uses Nukes anywhere then Moscow becomes fair game. MAD is a horribly idea, but it may be the thing that stays Putin’s hand.

I maintain the best option if that actually happened is convincing China to orchestrate a coup. The distance from NATO should give the cover the West lacks, and I really don't think China would be on board with pulling that kind of shit and destabilising the world. I'm also assuming that the ground in Russia would be fertile for a coup after that happening, not expecting China to conjure it out of nowhere.

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Yes they seem to have attacked it, I;ve seen pictures of it blown up on another forum though I don;t have the lin ot the exact page. The Ukrainians have reported they've pushed the Russians back a bit and some maps are reflecting that too. 

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A number of reports on twitter that Ukraine has successfully defended Mykolaiv from a Russian attack, and retaken a military airfield outside the city. It's a city that in peacetime looks to be about 2 hours east of Odesa. Presumably controlling it would make any Russian attack on Odesa easier.

Good to see Ukraine still having successes in the south, which for the most part seems to be the one region of the country where Russia has been making steady advances (likely because of easier reinforcement/resupply from Crimea).

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3 minutes ago, Fez said:

A number of reports on twitter that Ukraine has successfully defended Mykolaiv from a Russian attack, and retaken a military airfield outside the city. It's a city that in peacetime looks to be about 2 hours east of Odesa. Presumably controlling it would make any Russian attack on Odesa easier.

Good to see Ukraine still having successes in the south, which for the most part seems to be the one region of the country where Russia has been making steady advances (likely because of easier reinforcement/resupply from Crimea).

Does anyone know if there are simply better quality Russian Troops being deployed in the South as opposed to the North?

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Does anyone know if there are simply better quality Russian Troops being deployed in the South as opposed to the North?

Well for one, they've had naval support. I would say the troops had been stationed in Crimea may be more professional, since they had established a presence since 2014 rather than newly recruited conscripts.

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19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Okay that video is three days old.  I have to wonder if he still thinks the stalled convoy is no big deal?

I feel like the idea that Western analysts -- many of whom cut their teeth on analyzing the Soviet Russian armies as the primary aggressor (e.g. Swedish and Finnish analysts)-- are missing this seems a little foolish. Yes, the focus on the convoy being so "long" is perhaps overstated, but the fact that it is crawling and not really getting into the position they need for it to provide maximal logistical support has surprised experienced analysts the world over. IF the convoy was where they wanted it to be... where are the signs of tents and encampments in the satellite photos? The guys are sleeping in their APCs, in the cold, and basically waiting to move rather than having reached their destination.

This isn't something deliberate, part of some sort of doctrine, but rather a sign that something is not working as it should. Given the evidence that a lot of these vehicles are badly maintained, it makes sense that they are suffering a tremendous amount of mechnical problems that turn the whole thing into a snail.

 

 

Edited by Ran
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There are still over a thousand international students stuck in Ukraine trying to get out, but its getting harder and harder. Cant imagine all those Indian students still there and giving increasingly desperate calls to have them evacuated aren't having some effect on public opinion back in India (only one has died so far from Russian fire, as far as I can tell).

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I don't know how reliable this reporting is, there are a few things he's commenting on (like Putin's state of mind) that are clearly not based on firsthand evidence.  But it's an interesting read, and goes into why the Russian military is showing signs of wearing down, even as the war is only a week old. 

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