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Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes


Kalnestk Oblast
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2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Doesn’t that presume the Russians back Putin?  And that the stubbornness isn’t directed at Putin?

It depends on whether he succeeds in fostering bunker mentality and blaming all hardships on the outside enemy.

One thing that tends to get forgotten about the collapse of USSR is that it wasn't a capitulation of its people to the west; it was a fight for what they saw as a better way of life. In order for the similar thing to happen in today's Russia, they need to believe that the same is being offered to them now.

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19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I’m hearing talk of dropping the boom Economically on Belarus.  Is there any reason not to drop the boom on Belarus given Lukashenko’s relationship with Putin and the fact that Russian troops attacked out of Belarus?

Is Belarus being outside the sanctions regime giving Putin a lifeline?

not sure what “dropping the boom” means but the EU introduced new sanctions against Belarus today.

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5 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

not sure what “dropping the boom” means but the EU introduced new sanctions against Belarus today.

Like Tyrion dropping (technically raising) the chain on Stannis's fleet at the Blackwater. 

Edited by Corvinus85
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18 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Doesn’t that presume the Russians back Putin?  And that the stubbornness isn’t directed at Putin?

Tricky question. Read/heard a Russian opinion poll that sees around 2/3 of the Russians backing Putin on that military intervention. Keeping in mind, that this an official poll done by a state owned pollster, I'd take that result with a grain of salt. That number could be inflated, but considering the Russian media landscape, it could also be accurate. :dunno:

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Tricky question. Read/heard a Russian opinion poll that sees around 2/3 of the Russians backing Putin on that military intervention. Keeping in mind, that this an official poll done by a state owned pollster, I'd take that result with a grain of salt. That number could be inflated, but considering the Russian media landscape, it could also be accurate. :dunno:

Is there a way for the west to overcome the Russian choakhold on information?  That could really make a difference on that front?

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2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Tricky question. Read/heard a Russian opinion poll that sees around 2/3 of the Russians backing Putin on that military intervention. Keeping in mind, that this an official poll done by a state owned pollster, I'd take that result with a grain of salt. That number could be inflated, but considering the Russian media landscape, it could also be accurate. :dunno:

Any polls taken in a dictatorship are inherently unreliable, no matter who conducts them.

When a stranger in Russia asks if you support the actions of your government, you will think really hard on how you want to answer it.

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14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is there a way for the west to overcome the Russian choakhold on information?  That could really make a difference on that front?

I don'T see how.

Watched a documentary by the name [email protected]  This Job yesterday or so. It was first released in the fall of 2021, so quite uptodate you might say.

It's about pretty much the last independent tv stations (Dozhd) left standing in Russia and her owner. I can recommend it. Their live streams from likesay protests regulalry fall victim to DDos attacks. And it's generally speaking a really miserable way to make a living in Russia.

If you start a critical tv network as a foreigner, it might stop before it even starts on the claims of it being propaganda initiated by a hostile nation to undermine trust in the democratic institutions of Russia or something like that. 

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger
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35 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess we now know how many countries will be on which side if WWIII does break out.

Some good allies for them there: Belarus, Syria, Eriteria, North Korea. 

The abstentions are interesting: China, India, Cuba, Pakistan, Nicaragua, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Krygistan, Iraq, Iran, Armenia ...

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18 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is there a way for the west to overcome the Russian choakhold on information?  That could really make a difference on that front?

Not easily, but hackers and general net troublemakers are getting creative. Was reading a thread this morning about how people are using Russian Yelp reviews to spread info. Every little bit helps. 

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8 minutes ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Some good allies for them there: Belarus, Syria, Eriteria, North Korea. 

The abstentions are interesting: China, India, Cuba, Pakistan, Nicaragua, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Krygistan, Iraq, Iran, Armenia ...

China abstaining might be part of their play at being the great peace broker who ended the war without taking a side, and getting major geopolitical brownie points if they pull it off.

India AND Pakistan is interesting. They seem to be rarely on the same side of anything, even when it is not taking sides.

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All the usual caveats about the accuracy of this, could very well be BS or psyop stuff, but allegedly some Russian businessman offered a million dollar bounty on Putin:

There's a screenhot of the alleged FB post further down the thread.

Edited by Larry of the Lake
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16 minutes ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Some good allies for them there: Belarus, Syria, Eriteria, North Korea. 

The abstentions are interesting: China, India, Cuba, Pakistan, Nicaragua, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Krygistan, Iraq, Iran, Armenia ...

Iran is an interesting one. Russia is, or has been, a close ally and has been helping them with their nuclear programme.

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I sympathize immensely. But this isn't a good direction for this war to be heading:

 In addition to potential tit-for-tat escalating war crimes, announcing plans to violate the Geneva Convention is a good way to start losing foreign support.

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1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:
1 hour ago, The Dragon Demands said:

Eritrea is at war with Ethiopia and Russia gives them guns.

Also, Eritrea has been often called the North Korea of Africa, and is nearly just as repressive.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

It was during Barbarossa, of course, when Russian and Ukrainian soldiers fought side-by-side to defend Kyiv from the Germans, losing 650,000 dead in the process.

 

It is an interesting fact that the Soviet 44th Rifle Division destroyed by Finns in the Winter War (in the Battle of Raate Road) in January 1940 was actually a Ukrainian division.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Rifle_Division

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Raate_Road

 

Ukrainians have their own monument at the former battlefield:

https://www.suomussalmi.fi/en/tourism/see-and-feel/memorials-and-statues/ukrainian-memorial/

 

The main monument has 17,000 stones representing the number of soldiers who died in the battle of Suomussalmi. Finnish losses were less than one thousand men killed, but Soviets lost according to Finnish estimations 16,000 men. The Battle of Raate Road was a part of the greater Battle of Suomussalmi.

https://suomussalmenkunta.kuvat.fi/kuvat/Nähtävyydet ja käyntikohteet - Attractions/Raate/Talvisodan Monumentti.JPG?img=img2048

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If you all checked out that New Yorker piece to which I linked above, you would have answers to your questions by a Russian in the know.  For one thing, Russia isn't at war, as far as the vast majority of the population knows.  One sees nothing of it on television, and it isn't called a war, and they've choked off the two outlets that were able to Say Stuff if they used the right language -- and moreover they aren't digital, so nobody who isn't old sees or hears it anyway.

 

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