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Ukraine Part 5: war...it never changes


Kalnestk Oblast
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1 minute ago, Spockydog said:

Surely this cannot be true...

Introducing doesn't mean passing. The US has people introducing laws for letters of marque. The same account mentions it was introudced by minor party MPs not United Russia. 

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Plus those 80-odd new planes should come online in the near future, giving Ukraine potentially an aerial advantage, at least over the west of the country.

This is the infamous military map showing operations planned for Moldova, which people don't seem as concerned about as they should be.

 

I was reading yesterday that the whole 80 plane deal fell apart as each of those countries put out statements that they had no intention of supplying warplanes to Ukraine. But that may just be political denial and those planes may be quietly disappeared from their inventory and miraculously reappear over Ukraine blasting Russians.

Regarding the infamous map - it may be that people believe that is red herring, intentionally revealed to confuse Ukraine's forces. It's still better to follow actual intelligence rather than thinking that the Belarusian buffoon was himself conducting briefings for his staff. The again...

21 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some maps doing the rounds showing Ukraine being split into three states. Ukraine as we know it is reduced to the western half of the country, but loses the entire coastal strip. Odesa to Mariupol become Russian cities connecting Crimea and the Donbas to Transnistria. Entire north-east is taken over by the two separatist republics, with Kharkiv possibly annexed by Russia or the separatists. Kyiv remains the capital of "actual" Ukraine, and Lviv becomes its second-largest city.

This gives all the ports and the richest coal and gas regions of Ukraine, which have not so far been tapped, to Russia.

Whether that's an actual plan or not is unclear, but it's certainly one idea. The heartland of pro-EU, pro-NATO Ukraine remains free, but the rest of the country becomes Russian or a Russian buffer state.

If this happens I'll give Putin 3 days to come up with a pretext to invade and gobble up Moldova. 

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1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Russia's, February Revolution.

Edit: Also Germany's and Austria-Hungary's, a little over a year later. France's, a whole bunch of times.

I’m not sure what event you are referring to, Hungary did not actually manage to overthrow any of its oppressors throughout history. We always tried, we always paid a huge price but never succeeded. It was always later and due to far larger, global forces that Hungary was freed from one oppressor (often by the next one). 

 

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3 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

I’m not sure what event you are referring to, Hungary did not actually manage to overthrow any of its oppressors throughout history. We always tried, we always paid a huge price but never succeeded. It was always later and due to far larger, global forces that Hungary was freed from one oppressor (often by the next one). 

 

Aster Revolution?

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Thought this was interesting.  I know India's long ties to Russia have been mentioned here, particularly by@IheartIheartTesla - Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles:

Quote

Donald Lu, the assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, on Thursday told lawmakers in a hearing that the administration is weighing how threatening India's historically close military relationship with Russia is to U.S. security.

“It’s a question we’re looking at very closely, as the administration is looking at the broader question over whether to apply sanctions under CAATSA or to waive those sanctions,” Lu said. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

I was reading yesterday that the whole 80 plane deal fell apart as each of those countries put out statements that they had no intention of supplying warplanes to Ukraine. But that may just be political denial and those planes may be quietly disappeared from their inventory and miraculously reappear over Ukraine blasting Russians.

The story I read is that the deal was in limbo rather than completely falling apart, at least for Poland.

But there could be more up-to-date reporting.

 

5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Zelensky said there were 16000 'foreign national volunteers' wanting to fight for Ukraine, so I imagine that would be ones with combat experience? If so, not insubstantial, but not enough to change the balance of anything.

My guess is that he'd want to use the largest number possible, so this would be the total number of people who have inquired at embassies. Including the ones who were rejected because they had no experience. I'm not sure how many of them there are, but the one story I saw with interviews had a guy like that.

But either way, it's impressive. Hopefully everyone who ends up going knows what they're getting into; there is a difference between "military experience" and "combat experience" and I think you only need the former.

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19 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How would Finnish authorities react to an American living in Finland spreading pro-Russian propaganda on social media…?

Asking for a friend.

...probably not in any way, I think. My brain brings up the lack of resources they may have and which I don't bother to try to find anything about.

Out of curiosity, is s/he a Finnish citizen?

Edited by Ivan Tsarevich
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Just now, Ivan Tsarevich said:

...probably not in any way, I think. My brain brings up the lack of resources they may have and which I don't bother to try to find anything about.

Out of curiosity, is he a Finnish citizen?

I don’t know.  I know he’s from the US and living in Vaasa Finland (or so he claims) and he is a font of Pro-Russian bullshit.

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2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I don’t know.  I know he’s from the US and living in Vaasa Finland (or so he claims) and he is a font of Pro-Russian bullshit.

Well, I remember some article about Finnish foreign fighter on the side of the Donbass separatists, so there's that.

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20 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Aster Revolution?

I mean… The Aster Revolution was a technicality and the republic it declared controversial at best. Austria-Hungary came out on the losing side of World War I, it was done in politically and economically.  That was what ended Austria-Hungary, not the Aster Revolution which is barely comparable to 1848 or 1956, the actual revolutions in Hungary that are red letter days and commemorated annually. It is not remembered as or considered a large or important event, as it is entirely outshined by the fact that Hungary lost 2/3s of its pre war territories at the infamous (for us at least) Trianon treaty. The administration and leader of the first republic was often and heavily blamed for this. /2minutesofhistorynobodycaresaboutwithRhaenysB

 

Edited by RhaenysBee
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20 minutes ago, DMC said:

Thought this was interesting.  I know India's long ties to Russia have been mentioned here, particularly by@IheartIheartTesla - Biden weighing sanctions on India over Russian military stockpiles:

I guess I dont understand the reasoning behind the sanctions - for being aligned with Russia in the past? Why not sanction China as well, who have a much more active role in this whole conflict? Also, if memory serves me correct, the last time the US sanctioned India was around 1997 following the nuclear tests, and they were pretty ineffective. I dont see why this round would be any more effective. Given time, I'm sure even I could come up with better ways to disengage the Indians from the Russians.

Edited by IheartIheartTesla
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