Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?

[Darzin]

So Putin has given a rambling Trumpian speech talking about shooting stray dogs to a group of bemused looking flight attendent trainees. I'm not sure if the translation is correct or if it sounds better in Russian, but reading it as written it doesn't make me confident he's all there. 

[Fez]

26 minutes ago, Toth said:

Random layman general thought of the day: Right now (at least here in Germany) we are emptying all storages with leftover Warsaw Pact equipment, thinking that the Ukrainians would easier adapt to that gear and don't need any additional training. But what is with that foreign legion they are trying to form? Wouldn't it be possible to assume that many among those would be more accustomed to regular NATO gear and therefore we could ship some heavier equipment like tanks and planes to Ukraine and then have them find out whether some of the volunteers can use it?

The international legion is such a mishmash of different people with different trainings that I suspect they won't be able to coordinate anything beyond being small, independently operating infantry squads. Also, as a guess, I bet Ukraine wouldn't want to give any of them anything too powerful in case any are actually Russian agents.

[Ran]

4 minutes ago, Fez said:

I suspect they won't be able to coordinate anything beyond being small, independently operating infantry squads.

That’s what a Swedish volunteer on the way to Ukraine believed was the plan at this time. Makes sense, they don’t have time to develop a large-scale operational ability.

[Toth]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

The international legion is such a mishmash of different people with different trainings that I suspect they won't be able to coordinate anything beyond being small, independently operating infantry squads. Also, as a guess, I bet Ukraine wouldn't want to give any of them anything too powerful in case any are actually Russian agents.

Fair enough.

Also another random suggestion I saw in the internet: Why doesn't NATO call Putin and casually announce that we are going to do some big military exercises in Poland and the Baltic states and so on. Just to make him sweat a bit and force him to keep troops at the borders in combat readiness and preventing him from drawing together everything that he still got and add it to the 60 km pileup in Ukraine. Would maybe take some pressure off the Ukrainians and increase the speed with which Russia burns through its war chest.

Of course the counter argument would be that it would increase tensions, but I'm not seeing that we haven't already done much more overt actions against Russia.

[DMC]

Interestingly, it appears Israel has emerged as a potential candidate as mediator - Israeli leader meets Putin to discuss Ukraine cease-fire:

Quote

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Saturday secretly traveled to Moscow to discuss a possible cease-fire with Russian President Vladimir Putin, an Israeli official confirmed to Axios.

Why it matters: This is a highly unusual move by Bennett, who has been communicating in recent days with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to try and promote a cease fire.

The state of play: Since the Russian invasion, Bennett has spoken twice each with Zelensky and Putin.

 

[SpaceChampion]

 

[kiko]

9 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

London Chess Classic organizer Malcolm Pein said, chances of inviting Karjakin in the future are somewhere between 0-1%

As far as I remember it was between 0 and -1. 

[DMC]

U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency:

Quote

Should the United States and its allies choose to back an insurgency, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be the pivotal force, officials said, maintaining morale and rallying Ukrainians living under Russian occupation to resist their powerful and well-equipped foe.

The possible Russian takeover of Kyiv has prompted a flurry of planning at the State Department, Pentagon and other U.S. agencies in the event that the Zelensky government has to flee the capital or the country itself.

"We're doing contingency planning now for every possibility," including a scenario in which Zelensky establishes a government-in-exile in Poland, said a U.S. administration official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter.

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Instructions for Russians to get past Russian censorship of the BBC:

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60532634?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=622390d50ce87e491a0ee3d9%26How to get around the BBC block in Russia%262022-03-05T16%3A40%3A11.330Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f89a3ce8-01a8-402b-a20a-00ddd217be0e&pinned_post_asset_id=622390d50ce87e491a0ee3d9&pinned_post_type=share

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@Ran

Can you tell if Westeros is being blocked by Russian censors?

[Werthead]

Israel, Turkey and Saudi are all offering to act as independent mediators, with variable levels of plausibility, and China is encouraging a peaceful resolution to the crisis. India also seems to be increasingly alarmed after it turned out that 1,000 (!) Indian students are trapped in Sumy with Russian shells falling on all sides.

So a surfeit of off-ramps are being positioned around Putin should he choose to take them. The question is if he does, or if he even believes that the Russian military operations is running into as many problems as it has.

[Ran]

14 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

@Ran

Can you tell if Westeros is being blocked by Russian censors?

I am not certain. Three different websites that claim to offer checks to see if a site is blocked in Russia give me different results. Two say it's blocked, but one of them seems to claim the block was imposed in 2015 and 2019 respectively, while a third says it is not blocked (but, amusingly, says we're blocked in Turkey.)

ETA: Google Analytics, OTOH, says there's been no real change in traffic this week vs last week. And for those wondering, per the analytics, Russian visitors to Westeros stretch from Kaliningrad on the Baltic all the way to the Sakhalin Oblast in the Far East. Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the general Moscow Oblast are the three most represented regions.

[Darzin]

2 minutes ago, Ran said:

I am not certain. Three different websites that claim to offer checks to see if a site is blocked in Russia give me different results. Two say it's blocked, but one of them seems to claim the block was imposed in 2015 and 2019 respectively, while a third says it is not blocked (but, amusingly, says we're blocked in Turkey.)

Do any of them say the site is blocked in China? Because as a crosscheck for accuracy it's not blocked here.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

5 minutes ago, Ran said:

I am not certain. Three different websites that claim to offer checks to see if a site is blocked in Russia give me different results. Two say it's blocked, but one of them seems to claim the block was imposed in 2015 and 2019 respectively, while a third says it is not blocked (but, amusingly, says we're blocked in Turkey.)

Thanks.

[Ran]

4 minutes ago, Darzin said:

Do any of them say the site is blocked in China? Because as a crosscheck for accuracy it's not blocked here.

The one that says we're blocked in Turkey says we're not blocked in China and Russia. Personally, given that fans from Turkey have worked with us on the wiki in the past, I doubt we're blocked there and it's just some technical error.

[Kalbear]

At this point I'm not sure Russia has the fuel or operational ability to withdraw from ukraine

[GrimTuesday]

7 hours ago, maarsen said:

Considering the entire Soviet Union was collaborating with the Nazis to dismember Poland, singling out one or two groups is not really fair.

Hold up, that is a bullshit comparison. There is a world of difference between a country agreeing to be neutral in exchange for land (still not great) and would eventually lose millions of soldiers to destroy Nazi Germany vs  right wing ultra nationalist groups who actively and willing worked with Nazi Germany to participate not just as a local insurgency against the USSR, but also in their genocidal project.

[Werthead]

22 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

At this point I'm not sure Russia has the fuel or operational ability to withdraw from Westeros.org

Amended.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Hold up, that is a bullshit comparison. There is a world of difference between a country agreeing to be neutral in exchange for land (still not great) and would eventually lose millions of soldiers to destroy Nazi Germany vs  right wing ultra nationalist groups who actively and willing worked with Nazi Germany to participate not just as a local insurgency against the USSR, but also in their genocidal project.

Why are you trying to die on this bizarre hill? 

[3CityApache]

13 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Hold up, that is a bullshit comparison. There is a world of difference between a country agreeing to be neutral in exchange for land (still not great) 

Beg your pardon? Agreeing to be neutral? Soviets invaded Poland from the east on September 17th 1939, just two and a half weeks after Nazis, literally stabbing us in the back, as per confidential protocol of Ribbentrop-Molotov pact. Not to mention them executing thousands of Polish officers taken prisoners during said invasion.