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Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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The Ukrainians are sharing a video of them heroically bringing down a Russian bird with a handheld stinger missile.

Putin meet the Rambo resistance!

 

Ukrainian Armed Forces shared a video showing a Russian helicopter being shot down. CNN geolocated this video. The area where it was filmed includes a base where the Russians have been running helicopter operations and has recently been under attack by Ukrainian forces. CNN has been unable to verify when this happened.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/05/ukrainian-armed-forces-share-video-showing-russian-helicopter-being-shot-down-ndwknd-vpx.cnn

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8 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

It's not Zelensky- it's Russia being excluded from SWIFT plus popular pressure. Also, at this point there'a a snowball effect and every company that leaves increases.the motivation for others to leave

Visa and Mastercard took this step shortly after being explicitly asked to do so by Zelensky in his address to members of the US Congress. Not just him, but also his vice PM etc and others have been calling a lot of people and putting pressure on them. Zelensky also personally chatted with Elon Musk to get him to have more Starlink terminals for Ukraine. Generally, I think he has been outstanding in this regard.

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There are negotiations for the US to supply f16s to Poland in exchange for them giving mig29s to Ukraine. 

To be clear this is preliminary, probably good,, and very dangerous. 

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8 minutes ago, Kalibuster said:

There are negotiations for the US to supply f16s to Poland in exchange for them giving mig29s to Ukraine. 

To be clear this is preliminary, probably good,, and very dangerous. 

 

Poot's beefing on the sanctions will get worse, same with EU/NATO supply of arms. He sees it all as a declaration of war, even if only by proxy. Everything is dangerous at this point. 

 

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Today was the worst day of the air war for Russia. Reportedly, 1 Su-30SM, 2 Su-34 and 2 Su-25 jets and 2 Mi-24/35 attack helicopters, 2 Mi-8 transport helicopters and 1 Orlan-10 UAV were all destroyed. For context Russia only lost 6 fixed-wing attack aircraft and 6 helicopters in the entirety of the intervention in Syria.

In addition, the MiG and Sukhois to Ukraine deal seems to have been gathering pace in Poland, Bulgaria and elsewhere. Apparently the Poles are holding out to get their MiGs replaced by current-spec F-16s, which would be a nice upgrade (the Polish Air Force already has 48 F-16s and another 48 F-35s on order, so another 23 F-16s to replace their MiGs would be quite nice). I suspect we'll hear a lot of anger and threats about this from Russia.

Also, Russian convoys inside Russia are now being guarded by AA units with active radar. Looks like they've gotten the message they do not have air superiority.

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Quote

To be clear this is preliminary, probably good, and very dangerous. 

Agreed, but it's 23 very old MiG-29s. Ukraine has already lost 7 of their 37, and it's believed several of the other 30 have been destroyed or rendered inoperable. The MiGs are inferior to any air-to-air jet in the Russian inventory, and are actually Russian in origin.

The distinctions are difficult and complex, but it's not like they're F-35s or current-generation F-16s, 15s or 18s, which would pose a massive risk to the Russian air mission in total.

A big question is how the fuck they get them to Ukraine, since the country they fly from to Russia will go on Russia's shitlist, and Poland may not be so keen with a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Belarus right next door.

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21 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

 

Poot's beefing on the sanctions will get worse, same with EU/NATO supply of arms. He sees it all as a declaration of war, even if only by proxy. Everything is dangerous at this point. 

 

I suspect that this will be seen as a significant escalation. It may not make a difference mind you, no matter what, but I suspect this will be seen about as close to the red line Russia will have as we can go, and may push over. Defensive weapons for infantry is one thing; offensive weapons that can fuck up that 40km convoy is another. 

My prediction if this goes through is that Russia will most likely escalate damages against Ukraine. Thermobarics will be more obviously in play.

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The first rule of escalation dominance is to not publicly whine that supplying a free and independent peoples the tools to remain free and independent makes you piss your pants. Such cowardice emboldens Putin, endangers further the peoples in Ukraine, and undermines collective resolve against Russian belligerence.

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@Kalibuster

I don't disagree, didn't beforehand either. Pound, penny, they're arguably the same, and not also sure what alternative there is at this point.

Lavrov is trying to tie sanction guarantees into the Iran talks, ffs, more or less as we speak. Like how the fuck is his/their participation even a possibility right now? 

I'm presently finding it difficult to avoid conspiratorial thinking. Not impossible, but yeah. 

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1 minute ago, JEORDHl said:

@Kalibuster

I don't disagree, didn't beforehand either. Pound, penny, they're the same, and not sure what alternative there is at this point.

Lavrov is trying to tie sanction guarantees into the Iran talks, ffs, more or less as we speak. Like how the fuck is his/their participation even a possibility right now? 

I'm presently finding it difficult to avoid conspiratorial thinking. Not impossible, but yeah. 

I would think the Iranians would be delighted by current events as the West has every reason to get a deal done and put Iranian Oil back on the open market ASAFP.

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Vienna. I don't know if Lavrov is there in person, but the distinction is irrelevant. There may be some concrete or structural reason for this [I'm not a diplomat or educated in IR] but I don't like it. Not one tiny little bit. Nah. I hate it. 

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1 minute ago, JEORDHl said:

Vienna. I don't know if Lavrov is there in person, but the distinction is irrelevant. There may be some concrete or structural reason for this [I'm not a diplomat or educated in IR] but I don't like it. Not one tiny little bit. Nah. I hate it. 

The talks in Vienna are part of months-long negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal:

Quote

Russia's demand for written U.S. guarantees that sanctions on Moscow would not harm Russian cooperation with Iran is "not constructive" for talks between Tehran and global powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official said on Saturday.

The announcement by Russia, which could torpedo months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington in Vienna, came shortly after Tehran said it had agreed a roadmap with the U.N. nuclear watchdog to resolve outstanding issues that could help secure the nuclear pact.

"Russians had put this demand on the table (at the Vienna talks) since two days ago. There is an understanding that by changing its position in Vienna talks Russia wants to secure its interests in other places. This move is not constructive for Vienna nuclear talks," said the Iranian official in Tehran, speaking to Reuters.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that the Western sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine had become a stumbling block for the Iran nuclear deal, warning Russian national interests would have to be taken into account.

 

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9 minutes ago, DMC said:

The talks in Vienna are part of months-long negotiations to revive the Iran nuclear deal:

I'm aware, simply stumbling on the idea that anyone should give a tardigrade of a fuck about what Russia thinks its national interests are or are not. Exclusion from a seat at the table at these negotiations should've been coupled with everything else. 

 

edit: I'm super salty right now. going to take the dog for a walk.

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3 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I think all parties should issue a joint statement that says, as diplomaticly as possible, “we don’t give a flying fuck about Russian National interests in these discussions.

2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Exclusion from a seat of the table at these negotiations should've be coupled with everything else. 

These are...not very diplomatic responses. ;)  The fact is Russia - and China for that matter - are a part of the JCPOA, and we can't just kick them out because they're concerned about the sanctions.  Good news is, based on the quote above, sounds like the Iranians are pissed at Lavrov/the Russians for bringing this into it.

 

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11 minutes ago, DMC said:

These are...not very diplomatic responses. ;)

Oh I know 

 

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

The fact is Russia - and China for that matter - are a part of the JCPOA, and we can't just kick them out because they're concerned about the sanctions.  Good news is, based on the quote above, sounds like the Iranians are pissed at Lavrov/the Russians for bringing this into it.

You're right of course, except regarding what I'm beefing about. Lavrov's mic should've been muted, or the conch should've skipped him.

I can't believe the near perpetual state of rage I've been in for the last several days. And to think I'd actually gotten to the point a few years ago where I'd hardly be angry longer than five minutes. This war has been a personal set back in my development, and the fact that even annoys me makes me feel guilty, then even fucking angrier.

Fuck Lavrov. Fuck Poots.

And free fucking Palestine, while I'm at it.

Anyway. Dog. Walk.

 

Love you all, peace out till I find some chill, and perspective. 

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'How fast could you sell this?' Russian elites scramble to move, sell assets to get ahead of international crackdown

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/05/politics/sanctions-russian-oligarch-elites/index.html

Quote

 

Washington (CNN)Two hours after emailing a real estate newsletter of luxury homes to thousands of ultra-wealthy clients Friday morning, Shawn Elliott, president of the ultra luxury division at Nest Seekers International, said he received three inquiries. They were not from potential buyers, but sellers.

The calls came from New York and Miami, two hot spots popular with wealthy Russians, a possible sign of what may become the rapid sale of luxury homes, beachfront properties and apartments in the cities' skylines as Russians scramble to get ahead of international sanctions.

"People like that have their handlers call," Elliott said of the Russian owners. They asked, "'If I was to sell, how fast could you sell this and how fast could you sell that?'"

"It's interesting how the feelers are going out," he noted. "Maybe that's the beginning of the scramble."

The impact of coordinated sanctions from the US, United Kingdom and European Union has sent shockwaves through the Russian elite as oligarchs, some targeted and others taking steps in anticipation of what could come, look to move yachts, shed assets and adapt to a wave of sanctions that have come swifter than usual, and are more expansive than before.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Lavrov's mic should've been muted, or the conch should've skipped him.

I mean, like you said, it doesn't ultimately matter where or how Lavrov expressed this.  Hell it didn't even have to be Lavrov.  Russia mucking things up like this is a pretty intuitive move, looking at it from their perspective.  Hope walking the dog helps.  Just make sure not to wag the dog.

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