Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

A big question is how the fuck they get them to Ukraine, since the country they fly from to Russia will go on Russia's shitlist, and Poland may not be so keen with a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Belarus right next door.

Tow them to the border covered in camo. It's what the US did in WWII prior to entry. Planes were towed across the border to Canada before the UK could take possession of them, as a complicated get-around of the Neutrality Act. Of course, there was no danger of those planes getting attacked on the ground.

[Loge]

5 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I am surprised at the number of companies Zelensky has convinced to stop operations in Russia (Apple, Visa, Mastercard among others stopped after entreaties from the Ukrainians). I'm somewhat surprised US sanctions for instance wouldnt bar them from operating there anyways.

To give an example, the company that employs me cant do business in Iran. Doesnt make sense to me that Russia is different.

US sanctions ban the sale of certain goods to Russia, but Apple could still offer content, services, and accessories. Not sure if batteries fall under the sanctions. With Apple pulling out completely, iPhone owners are probably out of luck if anything breaks. Same with Samsung. Not sure about Chinese manufacturers. No sanctions by China but they probably depend on US or South Korean suppliers, which could force them to stop selling in Russia. I don't think the credit card companies are banned from doing business in Russia by the sanctions. They might be indirectly affected by the sanctions against some big Russian banks but I don't think they're under sanctions themselves.

[Ran]

If this is as advertised... I can't even come up with words for how shocking it is. Combined with Far East vehicles being pushed west, it suggests that much of the ground campaign is going to collapse very shortly.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Interesting video over Princeton discussing sanctions with Sergei Guriev.

not sure whether it had been linked before.

[mormont]

6 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

Poot's beefing on the sanctions will get worse, same with EU/NATO supply of arms. He sees it all as a declaration of war, even if only by proxy. Everything is dangerous at this point.

It is a war by proxy now. We should not kid ourselves that it's anything else.

[Loge]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Interesting video over Princeton discussing sanctions with Sergei Guriev.

not sure whether it had been linked before.

I hadn't seen it before. A pretty comprehensive discussion of the sanctions, what they can and can't do. I find the part about the airlines particularly interesting, although I had heard about it. He thinks they'll collapse within weeks. 

[Ran]

Christo Grozev is the executive director of Bellingcat, a Dutch-based investigative group that focuses on intelligence matters. Some may remember them from their investigation of the Salisbury poisonings, where they identified the culprits is the poisonings Sergei Skripal, his daughter, and others. Last night he posted a link to what he believes is a genuine letter from an FSB whistleblower, based on the details it contains, its length, the source, and checking with FSB contacts (past and present) who also believe it's genuine (though he notes his FSB contacts did dispute some of the whistleblower's conclusions). 

You'll need Google Chrome or DeepL or something to translate it, but my attempt at a brief summary:

• Opens with an  alarmist belief that global famine will take place this summer due to the fact that the disruption caused by the war and sanctions will already impact the grain yield from Russia and Ukraine, and that things are only going to get worse.
• FSB analysts such as the writer have been put under pressure to provide rosier and rosier reports for those above them. But he claims that no one genuinely believed that a war was going to take place -- that the build up was simply to present as credible a threat of war as possible to get leverage in negotiations with Ukraine and the West -- and that, combined with the repeated assurances that their analysis work was purely hypothetical and also that no war was going to happen, the analysis sent up the chain to the Kremlin was disconnected from reality and did not take into account any potential negative consequences (i.e. sanctions) or setbacks (i.e. failure of the blyatzkrieg, as I've seen some wags call it, to seize control of Kiev within three days)
• The Russian Central Bank head, or people under her, will be blamed for failing to protect Russia against sanctions... even though they were all assured that no war was actually coming. "Since no one told anyone, who could have calculated what no one told?"
• Chechen forces sent by Kadyrov were definitely betrayed by someone, somewhere, because Ukrainian forces chewed them up almost immediately as if they knew everything about their operational plans. He doesn't know if Ukraine's claim that FSB sympathizers provided them intel, but he leaves a 1-2% chance that it is true.
• Seems to feel the attack was flawed from the start because there was no good off ramp. Who do you negotiate with? If you get rid of Zelenskyy, who replaces him? The opposition party heads have fled or refuse to cooperate, even pro-Russian groups in Ukraine refuse Tsarev, and Yanukovych can't be credibly installed. If you keep Zelensklyy "for now", once they get rid of him any agreements are also worthless.
• Permanent occupation will require at least 500,000 -- and their quality will be spotty, so maybe you send even more to make up for it, but the logistical capacity is hardly there for a 500,000 occupation force.
• Can't really mobilize more anyways, logistics badly stretched as it stands.
• Probably 10,000 or more dead, but no one genuinely knows because headquarters is in chaos and communication is terrible.
• Killing or capturing Zelenskyy at this point doesn't matter, it's too late -- Ukraine is galvanized. Feels that Ukraine feels the same hatred towards Russia that the Chechens did. Also indicates that the plan had been to stir up anti-Zelensky mass demonstrations before going in and references infiltrators. (ETA: I think looking it over, I think he meant either FSB proposed that, or that they had been preparing to do that with the idea that it would provide more leverage, not necessarily that it was actually the prelude to invasion)
• Civilian losses will continue to grow. Serbia proved that a European city, supported by humanitarian relief, can withstand a siege for years.
• Deadline is June because they believe by June Russia's economy will be destroyed if sanctions continue.
• Russia has no real way out. There's no way to win this, and cites history, claiming the leadership has done the same as when the Russo-Japanese War revealed how badly prepared Russian forces were, and seems to draw a line from that to the Russian Revolution, implying he seems the same path.
• One positive: FSB did it's damndest to keep the idea of sending convicts to the frontlines from being part of their strategic analysis for the Kremlin, as they believe it will damage morale even further.
• Suggests the Donbas crisis was precipitated by Russia to take attention away from the seizure of Crimea. Cites something about Erdogan and gas/oil pipelines that I'm not familiar with, and Syria, claims the Iranian IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani (who was assassinated by a US drone strike at Trump's orders in early 2020) misled Russia into propping up Syria to solve his own problems. Now they're stuck with a mess, with nothing resolved. Leaving Syria to bolster Ukraine will destroy Assad.
• Fears someone close to Putin ("the top") will convince him to start hostilities with Europe as some sort of macho move to get them to reduce sanctions. Feels they may be drawn into a "real international conflict, like Hitler in 1939" (hmm...).
• Local nuclear strike possibility? Yes, not for military purposes but for intimidation. Then cites that they are doing all they can to gin up false claims that Ukraine is working on a dirty bomb, which is patently ridiculous; says that even Russia could not successfully develop a dirty bomb without it being noticed, so how was Ukraine supposed to do that?
• Within two weeks, Russians will start to miss the "hungry 90s". The Central Bank is trying to plug holes in the dam with a finger, it won't hold.
• Suggests that continued defeat may lead Chechen warlord Kadyrov to being taken out by rivals in Chechnya, since they'll no longer fear him because of this failure.
• Analogy to running a sprint vs running a marathon... and the Kremlin started a sprint only to find out it was in a marathon. 
• He does not believe Putin would launch a nuclear strike. There's more than one person who makes the decision and is sure someone will refuse. Also, he questions how actually capable and maintained the nuclear forces are (no doubt aware of how much rot has set into the military, and how much cost-cutting)..
• Finally, the FSB whistleblower does not personally feel a will to sacrifice himself on behalf of someone so terrified of his own advisors and inner circle that he doesn't allow them physically close to him, and questions whether Putin is really in the mental space to blow everything up. (ETA: Looks like he's actually questioning Putin's will to sacrifice himself.)

[polishgenius]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

A big question is how the fuck they get them to Ukraine, since the country they fly from to Russia will go on Russia's shitlist, and Poland may not be so keen with a soon-to-be nuclear-armed Belarus right next door.

 

 

I think you're underestimating how much Poland already considers itself on Russia's shitlist. I'm pretty sure the position is gonna be that stopping Russia getting stronger by taking Ukraine is gonna be a far more useful way to stop them invading or harming Poland down the line than trying not to make them angry. They may try to disguise the transfer for plausible deniability in some way, but I think it's just as likely they'll just middle-finger Putin.

Poland hates Russia.  

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Last night he posted a link to what he believes is a genuine letter from an FSB whistleblower, based on the details it contains, its length, the source, and checking with FSB contacts (past and present) who also believe it's genuine (though he notes his FSB contacts did dispute some of the whistleblower's conclusions). 

I just read it here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

[Ran]

7 minutes ago, Toth said:

I just read it here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500301348780199937.html

Provides some additional idiomatic context -- I was baffled by the meteorite thing -- that clarifies some things.

Strong, strong shades of the full court press the Bush administration made on the intelligence community to get the assessments they wanted to support their extending the war into Iraq.

[Toth]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

Provides some additional idiomatic context -- I was baffled by the meteorite thing -- that clarifies some things.

Strong, strong shades of the full court press the Bush administration made on the intelligence community to get the assessments they wanted to support their extending the war into Iraq.

I find it pretty much too good to be true.

[Loge]

Cogent has fired its Russian customers:

https://www.engadget.com/cogent-communications-223135454.html

[Ran]

30 minutes ago, Toth said:

I find it pretty much too good to be true.

Which part? The global famine or the local tactical nuclear strikes?

A lot of what is said sounds exactly like what we can surmise simply based on how things have unfolded. The early part of the invasion was clearly based on the mistaken idea that it was a cake walk.

[Toth]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

Which part? The global famine or the local tactical nuclear strikes?

A lot of what is said sounds exactly like what we can surmise simply based on how things have unfolded. The early part of the invasion was clearly based on the mistaken idea that it was a cake walk.

I was indeed more hinting at the part that an FSB agent seems to have the exact same level of information as random hiveminds in the internet. This 'leak' confirms pretty much everything we have guessed based on our observations of twitter posts.

[sologdin]

a psychological operation that adopts common western interpretations in order to induce complacency therein, then?

[IheartIheartTesla]

5 hours ago, Loge said:

 I don't think the credit card companies are banned from doing business in Russia by the sanctions. They might be indirectly affected by the sanctions against some big Russian banks but I don't think they're under sanctions themselves.

Right, and you cant use VISA/Mastercard in Iran because of sanctions, pretty much. I didnt understand the distinction and still dont.

[Derfel Cadarn]

27 minutes ago, sologdin said:

a psychological operation that adopts common western interpretations in order to induce complacency therein, then?

Or the whole thing jas been a colossal fuck up, and those getting the blame internally are getting pissed off.

[polishgenius]

Obviously it has to be treated with caution and we wouldn't want our leaders making decisions based on the idea that that report is written in stone, but at the same time, it's not weird that speculation based on an interpretation looking for the reasons for the facts we're seeing on the ground would be similar to the actual reasons for the facts we're seeing on the ground, so dismissing it entirely on that basis would be a mistake too.

[Werthead]

Some signs that Russia is switching its emphasis to the southern front, where greater success is being achieved. If one of the original plans in mind was to take Odesa and Mariupol and link up the entire south coast and most, if not all, of the country east of the Dnieper, leaving only a rump state in the north-west, then that is still achievable.

An amphibious assault on Odesa remains likely and it looks like the Russians will have to take Kharkiv to make that plan work. Some possibilities that the Russians may be having second or third thoughts about attacking Kyiv at all, especially as their attempts to encircle the city from the east have hit major stumbling blocks and it looks like fighting in the northern suburbs has been repulsed, at least temporarily.

I've also seen a few very cautious appraisals that Ukraine might be able to pull off a victory on the ground, ranging from simply fighting the Russians to a standstill (aided by Russia's own supply problems) to pulling off successful counter-attacks and driving Russia back from certain areas. I wonder if Ukraine is willing to accept a "victory" that sees them retain Odesa and the south coast at least to the Dnieper (and removes a direct Russian military presence on the border of Romania, and prevents them from linking up to Transnistria).

Some speculation that Putin may have even decided on a diplomatic out as offered by Israel but wants to achieve at least one major military breakthrough first, whether that's taking Kharkiv, Kyiv or Odesa.

[3CityApache]

https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1499989967782694913?t=gurqoThlGJttitOHHrccEg&s=19

The reply of German embassy to this post is pure gold.