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Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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Kharkiv taking another pounding. A missile hit a residential building full-on. A Russian aircraft over the city was shot down, but Kharkiv is not having a good time of it.

Russian Tochka-U missiles have been spotted, suggesting that they are switching to older hardware. However, the Tochka-U is also used by Ukraine, allowing Russia to perhaps falsify attacks.

A US defence official has said that, at least for today, there's been a "bloody, grinding stalemate," with no major Russian combat movements and a lot of Russian fire apparently directed at civilian targets.

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For the sake of public relations to the world anybody negotiating a cease fire would be better, even, yes, I say China or Israel.

Sidebar -- for the third time our Israeli fiend, grand daughter of David Ben-Gurian, has invited us to come and chill at her place in Jaffa, which looks right over the Mediterranean.  I can't imagine.  Beyond that though, she like so many Israelis, are as antagonistic toward this war as they are with the one on the Palestinians.

 

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1 minute ago, Zorral said:

For the sake of public relations to the world anybody negotiating a cease fire would be better, even, yes, I say China or Israel.

I don't understand this response.  I think in terms of PR, let alone as the mediator in the room, the west would certainly prefer Israel to China, Saudi Arabia, or even Turkey.  Those were the main candidates I was comparing them to.

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The response is based on the Putin declaration that this is a provoked war from NATO and especially the USA.  The more the USA stays away from being on tv and blahblahblahing, the less he can pull outta his ass to the world that it is the USA that is responsible.  While yes, the USA giving all the material and sanction support to Ukraine we can.

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8 minutes ago, Zorral said:

The response is based on the Putin declaration that this is a provoked war from NATO and especially the USA.  The more the USA stays away from being on tv and blahblahblahing, the less he can pull outta his ass to the world that it is the USA that is responsible.  While yes, the USA giving all the material and sanction support to Ukraine we can.

The west, or the US, preferring the Israelis to the others mentioned as potential mediators has nothing to do with any of this.

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

The mud season has already come early in some parts of the country, apparently shredding a lot of Russian vehicles' tyres to pieces. Which given in some cases they were already five or six years old anyway and waaaay past the point of replacing, has not exactly helped things.

Global warming, yay!

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2 hours ago, Kalibuster said:

Oil up about $30 to 135 a barrel after us signals embargo of Russian oil.

Yeah this seems more of an emotional response than actual sound strategy, at least when it comes to a US embargo. 

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

The west, or the US, preferring the Israelis to the others mentioned as potential mediators has nothing to do with any of this.

What?  The rest of the world has nothing to do with a war in which the nuclear threat has been intentionally raised, a war, that whether or not there is a nuclear armageddon, will provide plenty of supply and financial armageddon for a long time to us all?

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Just now, Zorral said:

What?  The rest of the world has nothing to do with a war in which the nuclear threat has been intentionally raised, a war, that whether or not there is a nuclear armageddon, will provide plenty of supply and financial armageddon for a long time to us all?

I have..no idea what your point is.  What does this have to do with who the west/US would prefer as a third party mediating Ukraine/Russian negotiations?  How is any of this different if that third party is Israel instead of China or the Saudis or Turkey?

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39 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah this seems more of an emotional response than actual sound strategy, at least when it comes to a US embargo. 

Yep! Markets are not remotely rational.

 

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1 minute ago, Kalibuster said:

Yep! Markets are not remotely rational.

Indeed.  I suppose the silver lining is that in time there's at least a decent chance the market will correct itself from such a knee-jerk reaction.

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4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

And I've heard comments from people like Michael Kaufman that Ukraine had a pretty ample supply of weapons like that before the war started.  

There's no idea how much longer they'll be able to get weapons over the border to Ukraine, as the NYT piece notes. If Russia pushes, they could cut off the primary supply routes and only a trickle will get in after that. So this is a long-haul thing, getting as much suport in while they can, given that the U.S. and NATO are making contingency plans for a Ukrainian government in exile and a long, grinding war.

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According to the study of a scientist from Collegium Civitas in Warsaw, the protests have a chance to succesfully change the regime's policy if at least 3.5% of the population actively takes part in it. In case of Russia it's about 5 million people. 

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A long grinding war would have devastating global effects. The importance of both Ukraine and Russia in the food and fertilizer markets is enormous. If no solution is found soon-ish we are up to an explosion of discontent, unrest, protests and conflicts around the world, particularly in the Middle East, but higher food prices are not going to gain anybody's support even in Europe or US, which are in better position to weather the storm.

So, either Putin is deposed in a internal and (hopefully) bloodless coup and negotiations can take place. Or the West need to back down and accept the division of Ukraine.

 

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9 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't understand this response.  I think in terms of PR, let alone as the mediator in the room, the west would certainly prefer Israel to China, Saudi Arabia, or even Turkey.  Those were the main candidates I was comparing them to.

Why does it matter what the west wants? The west should want peace. It shouldn’t matter who mediates that. The fact that it does is part of the problem. Let China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Emmanuel Macron or anybody in the world who can mediate it, just do so and end it. 

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