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Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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8 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Russia refused talks in a neutral country like Switzerland or Austria. By insisting that the talks are held in a puppet state they showed that they want to dictate terms imho. That is the behavior of a country that who wants a surrender not proper peace. 

I see what you meant now. My previous post was in connection with the preference of the west for a mediator that DMC and perhaps Zorral (?) discussed previously. My point was that it doesn’t and shouldn’t matter whether Israel, Saudi Arabia, China, Turkey or Emmanuel Macron mediates. What matters is that one, more or all try and hopefully achieve something. What doesn’t matter is which of them the west prefers. 

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18 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Personally I see no reason to undermine the propaganda of a country under attack. It is not like anything positive is gained by that. 

Depends on what the purpose of this thread is. If we're just talking about what's going on, it is valuable to have a clear picture of things. If we're trying to organize a charity drive or something, then it may help to have a rosier picture.

But, ignoring all the propaganda, it does seem the war is going about as well as could be hoped for the Ukraine military. And nearly as bad as it could be for Ukrainian civilians.

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There is a major scandal brewing in the UK, something that, if it was ever fully reported, would make the Kim Philby story look like a cat stuck up a tree.

Carole Cadwalladr has been writing, for years, about Boris Johnsons troubling links with the Lebedevs.

Already, there are extraordinarily spectacular aspects to this story that Carole has written about in the Guardian, yet have been nowhere near the BBC Newsroom or the right wing press in this country. 

That seems to be changing. The Times published a piece yesterday, and now Johnson is finally facing uncomfortable questions over why he put this guy in the House of Lords, despite MI6 telling him not to.

Carole is rightly frustrated.

 

 

 

 

 

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I agree with this take.  It's still an unreasonable position, but it is a LOT closer to something that the Ukrainians could accept.  This is a big step down from demanding regime change.  I have to think if Russian troops make minimal progress in the next week or two (and the Russian economy continues to crater) that Russia might be willing to accept a negotiated peace.

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28 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I agree with this take.  It's still an unreasonable position, but it is a LOT closer to something that the Ukrainians could accept.  This is a big step down from demanding regime change.  I have to think if Russian troops make minimal progress in the next week or two (and the Russian economy continues to crater) that Russia might be willing to accept a negotiated peace.

I hope so.  That said.  If Russia withdraws and Putin remains in power do sanctions remains in place?

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11 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

It appears the "Z" painted on Russian vehicles is rapidly becoming the new symbol for fascists in Russia.

I hope we don't have to remove a letter from our alphabet because of this shit.

If it comes that that we would probably also have to remove the Number 2   (especially when combined with bad handwriting)

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I hope so.  That said.  If Russia withdraws and Putin remains in power do saanctions remains in place?

I think that Russia will need to negotiate the end of sanctions with the US/EU once an agreement in principle is reached with Ukraine.  They would be foolish to leave that up in the air.  But I think that the US/EU would be pretty willing to end the sanctions.  There's money to be made in Russia and (in the event of a Russian defeat thinly disguised as a victory for Putin's sake) Russia won't be embarking on another disaster like this anytime soon. 

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19 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

It appears the "Z" painted on Russian vehicles is rapidly becoming the new symbol for fascists in Russia.

I hope we don't have to remove a letter from our alphabet because of this shit.

We'll have to save that letter for when the zombie apocalypse comes...which by the way things are going should be next month or so.

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Russians are advancing on the Yuzhnoukrainsk nuclear power plant, so we shall see how that develops.

I was considering creating a thread on the issue of nuclear power plants being used as a military target by state actors. It can be clearly inferred that Russia thus far hasn't occupied these plants with the intention of weaponizing a radiological event (such an action would be baffling, considering that, at least in the case of occupation of the Zaporizhzhia plant, the winds were in the direction of Russia, meaning that Russia would have been the major subject of any fallout). However, the activities of Russia have certainly increased the probability of such an event occurring, and that idea is worth exploring. VVER reactors, even with enhanced upgrades, are still Gen 2 reactors (like RBMK in Chernobyl, the BWR in Fukushima and the PWR in Three Mile Island). Gen 2 reactors do not have the passive safety features inherent to their design like modern advanced reactors, and so if the pumps are denied a power source, a core failure is absolutely possible.

I fear that since there is such a profound misunderstanding in the public about radiation, reactors and their safeguards, waste disposal, and other matters of nuclear power, this will once again serve as negative PR for the nuclear industry, which is very likely the best hope against future environmental catastrophes, and the ensuing consequences (eg, these sort of wars becoming the new norm).

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At this point I just can't imagine trusting peace negotiations because I'd expect Russia to take a breather to try sort out logistics issues etc and then declare war again as soon as they're ready. Putin has made it pretty clear that he doesn't consider deals made with an entity he views as illegitimate to be binding in any way.

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37 minutes ago, karaddin said:

At this point I just can't imagine trusting peace negotiations because I'd expect Russia to take a breather to try sort out logistics issues etc and then declare war again as soon as they're ready. Putin has made it pretty clear that he doesn't consider deals made with an entity he views as illegitimate to be binding in any way.

A bigger issue is that Putin's Russia isn't a trustworthy negotiating partner. Why would Ukrainians trust any agreement with them, after they violated the 1994 one and after months-long lies about "military exercises"? Why would anyone?

I don't see this ending without a complete battlefield defeat for one side or the other.

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