Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?

[Zorral]

Pentagon says Russia trying to recruit Syrian fighters for Ukraine.  Presumably seasoned, experienced, street fighters, who have no compunction killing civilians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/07/russia-trying-to-recruit-syrians-to-fight-in-ukraine-says-pentagon

[JGP]

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

It remains amazing how many Russian senior commanders find themselves in harms way during this war. As more knowledge people have pointed out, it likely speaks to how bad Russian logistics and planning have been that its necessary for generals/colonels to be up at the front to try to pull rank to clear things up.

There's  m o r e  though. Check out this thread  from Grosev [of Bellingcat] the implications are nigh on jawdropping

 

 

[Corvinus85]

4 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

There's  m o r e  though. Check out this thread  from Grosev [of Bellingcat] the implications are nigh on jawdropping

 

 

Also this guy apparently was killed as well and I say good riddance.

 

[Kalbear]

looooooollllll 

 

 

[polishgenius]

The detail that they did that because apparently Russia's secure network only works with active 3G/4G cell towers and the Russians destroyed all of them as they moved in is fucking hilarious. 

[JGP]

Just wow

[IheartIheartTesla]

3 hours ago, Red Tiger said:

Can confirm. I have friends in the East who are getting a completely different narrative. Russia, China, India and other countries are getting a completely different story than us.

I spoke with my parents over the weekend (who still live near Mumbai) and we are in fairly good agreement over the war. While Russia and China definitely control the flow of information from outside (the latter more so until recently), I doubt this is even possible within India. We've had access to services like the BBC and CNN since the early 90s, and journalism has a fairly robust tradition in India for quite a while. Cant control what people think about the conflict overall, but it isnt because a different story is being pushed on them. Its more what the geopolitical reality is there.

[Padraig]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The Russian proposal is obviously not something Ukraine will accept, as I said quite clearly.  I'm not sure that Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO (particularly if there's a time limit on there) is necessarily a non-starter  At least until this crisis, NATO didn't seem particularly interested in letting Ukraine join anyway.  That was true for joining the EU as well, although it's quite possible the politics have changed in the past two weeks. 

I was specifically responding to the idea that it is a big step down from regime change.  I do agree about NATO.  And Ukraine is never going to get Crimea back, even if they refuse to formally accept that.  But the point about the EU (and whether it can have an army) is the crucial thing to me.  Russia is involving itself in Ukraine's basic economic development.

There is a long road to joining the EU but the deal in 2014 was a step on that path.  If Russia forces it off that path then it will inevitably end up back in Russia's sphere because it has to trade with someone.  Zelensky may remain as President but there probably would be a backlash against him in the end, given all that Ukraine loses.  Russia doesn't need to force regime change.   It will come.

Before the war, this offer would have been the worst case scenario.  Since the war there have been rumours about partition but don't be fooled by that.  This is still a dreadful offer (which Ukraine may still be forced to take to save lives).

4 hours ago, DMC said:

While I agree with that the specific conditions being discussed are unacceptable, if Ukraine wants to reach a resolution where there's some agreement they won't join NATO for a certain period of time will not necessarily make them a vassal state of Russia.

Maybe they can negotiate that.  I don't like the suggestion that this caveat would be put in the constituation.  That doesn't suggest a time restricted.  But i've been rather pessimistic about this for a while.  So, maybe i'm wrong.

Edited to add:  Not that I really think negotations are going to go anywhere.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I spoke with my parents over the weekend (who still live near Mumbai) and we are in fairly good agreement over the war. While Russia and China definitely control the flow of information from outside (the latter more so until recently), I doubt this is even possible within India. We've had access to services like the BBC and CNN since the early 90s, and journalism has a fairly robust tradition in India for quite a while. Cant control what people think about the conflict overall, but it isnt because a different story is being pushed on them. Its more what the geopolitical reality is there.

I've been a bit confused about India's reaction. I know India and Russia have longstanding good ties, but are they really that strong and/or has India soured more on the West than I may have realized, because as you said they're not dealing with the same stranglehold on the flow of information?

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I don't like the suggestion that this caveat would be put in the constituation. 

No I wouldn't be in favor of that either.  More importantly, it certainly does not appear Ukraine will agree to that unless things significantly change.  My point is some timeframe agreement could still be a palatable concession to provide Putin an offramp and end hostilities.

[IheartIheartTesla]

The reaction of the government is strategic more than anything, and as I think I've mentioned before here, has to do with their need for Russian military hardware. The general public probably doesnt care much either way, although I doubt there is any significant souring of attitudes towards the West (middle class Indians in general love US universities a lot and consume quite a bit of 'trashy' TV from over here, just to give a few examples). Modi is also trying to position himself as a peace broker, much like Israel and Turkey are, so maybe he's trying to straddle some sort of line.

[Raja]

I'm not sure how much tv consumption has to do with attitudes towards the west, though I also think trying to sum up the feelings of a diverse population such as India would be very tough to do.

I'm not too surprised about the abstention, partly because of the military support, but also because it follows India's previous votes in the UN regarding the referendum in Crimea in 2014 where they also abstained, so I think it's a fairly predictable response.

[karaddin]

8 hours ago, Gorn said:

A bigger issue is that Putin's Russia isn't a trustworthy negotiating partner. Why would Ukrainians trust any agreement with them, after they violated the 1994 one and after months-long lies about "military exercises"? Why would anyone?

Yeah the betrayal of those older agreements was definitely part of why I'd struggle to trust any agreement now.

8 hours ago, Maithanet said:

I cannot agree.  It's not that I find Putin trustworthy (I do not).  If Russia pulls out, they are not going to be able to just give it another go in a few years - the situation has changed.  Anti-Russian sentiment is ascendant in Ukraine, and they will just be using that time to build defenses and make occupation more difficult.  The US/EU will definitely continue to give Ukraine weapons and (hopefully) help rebuild their infrastructure and economy. 

I meant attacking again in a week or two, not a full stand down and attacking again in a few years - I agree the damage from this war makes that a much harder prospect. But that's part of why I wouldn't trust any deal made now, everyone knows that Putin knows it's now or never.

That said I don't view myself as an any kind of authority nor do I think my opinion actually matters - my point was intended to be "I will 100% understand if Ukraine rejects peace deals even once they reach the point of seeming superficially reasonable". If/when they do make an agreement, I will hope for the best and certainly won't judge them or even disagree with it. It's their country, their sovereignty, their lives and their choice.

[IheartIheartTesla]

54 minutes ago, Raja said:

I'm not sure how much tv consumption has to do with attitudes towards the west, though I also think trying to sum up the feelings of a diverse population such as India would be very tough to do.

I thought I mentioned I was giving examples of middle class Indians having cultural affinity with the US. There are numerous other examples.

To return to the topic at hand, Putin is also trying to create his own foreign legion (primarily Syrians). Some Russian mercenary outfits have apparently been arming their Syrian operatives to transfer into Ukraine. Another example of how the war isnt going great for him.

[SpaceChampion]

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

 

That’s… oh sweet dear God in heaven this spreading is a terrible idea… terrible. 
 

I’m staying with my Mom for the week and she’s watching specials on “Nostrodaumus”.  I know it’s bullshit.  I just don’t want to hear it and she doesn’t have a large apartment.
 

[Zorral]

Japanese-Russian War redux?  A two-fronter for Russia.  Good. Lord.  Let's not.  Please.

[sologdin]

wtf wtf dumbarton oaks coming apart at the seams.

[Varysblackfyre321]

40 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

 

What does this mean?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

What does this mean?

Shits going to get worse before it gets better.