Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?

[DMC]

27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Shits going to get worse before it gets better. 

Next thing you know the stupid French-Chinese will claim they have a right to Hawaii!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Next thing you know the stupid French-Chinese will claim they have a right to Hawaii!

Now's the perfect time for Argentina to retake the Falkland Islands again.

I joke, but these disputes will become ever more common as climate change impacts the planet, and it's safe to say based on our reaction to Covid that the train's left the station on that front.  

[Durckad]

Just more proof that we live in the dumbest timeline.

[Corvinus85]

Mongolia will rise again!!!

[Lord of Oop North]

Japan has claimed the southern Kurils as their territory since the Second World War, what has changed here exactly?

[Corvinus85]

Lol

Taiwan! oops. And technically now they recognize Ukraine as a country.

[Fez]

From a couple days ago, but hadn't seen it shared:

I never heard the original 1985 version of the song, but this one sure is haunting. And, as Sting says, it's nuts that the song is relevant again at all.

[DMC]

25 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

No Sweden or Finland but Liechtenstein and San Marino and... Taiwan! oops.

Why wouldn't Sweden or Finland count as "EU countries?"

[Wilbur]

Desmond Wisely usually delivers Catholic church supplies, but recently he undertook a Special Parking Operation for the Russian Ambassador in Dublin.  

 

[Corvinus85]

8 minutes ago, DMC said:

Why wouldn't Sweden or Finland count as "EU countries?"

My bad, with all the NATO talk I forgot they are in the EU. But hey Russia recognized Taiwan.

[Wilbur]

Also, I keep seeing Motorola radios, sometimes multiple Motorola radios, in the pictures of the Chechnyan soldiers sent to attack Ukraine.  Digital Portables, XPRs, APXs, even PBRs - someone has been shopping on Amazon.

As a former Motorolan, I can assure you that the models that I see in those photographs do not possess military-grade encryption functionality.  Good for keeping in touch with your buddies on a camping trip?  Yes!  But otherwise, everything you say over those radios is easy to intercept.

The only thing that those radios are going to be good for in this war is tuning in the Hymn for Ukraine 24/7 and giving away your physical position, as at least one of the models has an integral GPS.

[Loge]

52 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Also, I keep seeing Motorola radios, sometimes multiple Motorola radios, in the pictures of the Chechnyan soldiers sent to attack Ukraine.  Digital Portables, XPRs, APXs, even PBRs - someone has been shopping on Amazon.

As a former Motorolan, I can assure you that the models that I see in those photographs do not possess military-grade encryption functionality.  Good for keeping in touch with your buddies on a camping trip?  Yes!  But otherwise, everything you say over those radios is easy to intercept.

The only thing that those radios are going to be good for in this war is tuning in the Hymn for Ukraine 24/7 and giving away your physical position, as at least one of the models has an integral GPS.

The military has used unencrypted radio for a century. Most of the time it doesn't matter if the enemy is listening or not. And if you really need to transmit something secret, encrypt the message. There are methods t do that involving paper and pencil.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Corvinus85 said:

Lol

Taiwan! oops. And technically now they recognize Ukraine as a country.

Finally someone had the nerve to shake their fists at Liechtenstein! 

[Toth]

4 hours ago, Zorral said:

Japanese-Russian War redux?  A two-fronter for Russia.  Good. Lord.  Let's not.  Please.

I wonder whether Japan is actually heeding the suggestion that I have read and stated before of conducting military exercises at the Russian border to force Putin to keep some troops in combat readiness elsewhere than Ukraine. So given that Japan already claims these islands since they were occupied in WW2 and made so clear on numerous occasions, it really is nothing new, but a bit of saber rattling on the other end of Russia might prevent them from drawing troops away from the east to throw them into Ukraine as well.

[SpaceChampion]

3 hours ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Japan has claimed the southern Kurils as their territory since the Second World War, what has changed here exactly?

Russia recently placed a coastal weapons system on it, which can launch missiles at Japan.  So Japan took that personally.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-deploys-coastal-missile-system-island-chain-near-japan-2021-12-02/

[polishgenius]

33 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

Russia recently placed a coastal weapons system on it, which can launch missiles at Japan.  So Japan took that personally.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/russia-deploys-coastal-missile-system-island-chain-near-japan-2021-12-02/

 

But I thought Russia were against placing missile systems close to other nations' territory.

[3CityApache]

 

[Werthead]

Had to take a break from things yesterday to refresh. Also took some time this morning to try to assess the overall pattern of things without getting sucked into minutiae.

There's a lot of disagreement going on between intelligence sources, media on the ground and commentators. There's a growing disgruntlement from some that the "rah rah Ukraine awesome" narrative is getting out of hand, but also criticism of media for focusing on "close-up" stories, most of them horrible, which seem to be suggesting the Russians are doing much better than might be the case. There's also radically different assessments of the possibility for negotiations, the degree to which the Russian leadership (in general, or Putin in particular) even know how things are on the ground, the effectiveness of sanctions, the attitudes of China, and on where different red lines are.

There does seem to be a general consensus that Russia's advances have crawled to a halt in the north and in the south are slowing. There also seems a general agreement that the Ukrainians have conducted successful counter-offensives on all three fronts, but these have been cautious and not created major reversals for the Russians. Mykloaiv Airfield was recaptured yesterday, putting Ukrainian troops possibly within range to relieve Mykolaiv itself and even conduct counter-offensives towards Kherson; liberating Kherson would be an absolutely enormous success. Those operations are also driving Russian forces away from a potential landward attack on Odesa (retaining Odesa will be vital to Ukraine's future economic prospects). However, it's unclear if the Ukrainians have massed enough forces in the south and south-west to conduct offensive operations; to do so might mean stripping Odesa which has been on and off preparing itself for an amphibious assault (the chances of which seemed to lessen yesterday after the Ukrainians drove off a Russian warship trying to get close to the shore, but seemed to reinflate this morning after a limited missile attack).

However, there are also signs that the Russians are trying to get on top of their logistics nightmare (at least close to the border) and are also prepping for a major assault on Kyiv. It does look like the Russians have wavered back and forth on what they actually want to do: they really need one major big victory (Kherson isn't cutting it) and taking Kyiv, Kharkiv or Mariupol would give that to them. The problem is that Kyiv will be an absolute nightmare to take and is very heavily fortified, repeated Russian bombardments have left bits of Kharkiv looking like Stalingrad and about as inviting to attack, and Mariupol has become an absolutely insane nightmare of a nut to crack, despite inflicting ludicrous damage on it (not to mention that the city's military use in giving them another port to use might have been compromised by damage already). Russian troops are also too closely engaged for them to start deploying heavier weapons. It also looks like the Russians have either run out of cruise missiles (what's left are probably on the ships in the Black Sea) and are being forced to use their most expensive in-theatre aircraft to drop dumb-bombs at low altitude, which is resulting in an absolutely unsustainable rate of attrition (Russia is losing Su-35s - costing $50 million a pop - at the rate of 1-3 every 48 hours).

The supply war also appears to be being won by Ukraine: some reports that 17,000 Javelins entered Russia last week by itself. That's enough Javelins to take out the entire Russian armoured and motorised forces. Some evidence of how ubiquitous Javelins have become by increasing Russian vehicle losses. An anti-tank HEAT missile with enough power to cripple a T-90 is being used on Russian armoured cars, jeeps and even commandeered civilian vehicles. There's some indications that even Ukrainian forces on the contact line in the east (which appears to have been overrun in the north, but the Ukrainians don't even seem to have contested that area much, but is still in place in the south) are being resupplied successfully through a gamut of Russian fire.

All of that heavily suggests that this war could simply bog down: the Russians need to either start assembling a second large army formation to back up the attack, which would take weeks, require some degree of mobilisation and would be easy to see, or they need to use what forces they have to achieve a breakthrough. But they seem undecided on what axis of attack to take. The longer this takes, the more it costs (in terms of Russian GDP and economic loss, this may already be one of the most expensive wars in history), the most lives it costs, the likelier it is that Russia's allies and friendly-neutrals start becoming less friendly-neutral or allied, and the the harder it is to achieve an exit strategy on their best terms.

There are actually, I think, huge dangers from a Ukrainian major breakthrough as well. If Ukraine does succeed in a counter-offensive and drives the Russians back, the Russians may feel freer to use thermobaric weapons, massed artillery strikes or even a tactical nuke to try to end the war in one big, relatively cheap, gesture, immediately. In some senses a longer, grinding war which the Russians feel they can turn around "any hour now" could be in Ukraine's military interest. Of course, if Russia is simply unwilling to use real WMDs to achieve victory, they could find themselves in their own Vietnam.

The Russians do have the strength (arguably) of not having set out too many red lines for victory. They win when Putin says they win and Putin can declare they've won literally this afternoon, force out some concessions (recognition of Crimea and maybe the Donbas republics, even if only within the contact line, and an agreement not to join NATO for x years) and go home. It will take years to reorganise the Russian military, reequip and resupply, and rebuild the country's economy. Years that Putin (69) doesn't necessarily have, in power if not in general. I think he can sell that as victory in Russia, where it's clear the misinformation and propaganda has been far, far more successful than previously thought. The question is whether he considers an internal propaganda victory worth the absolutely horrendous damage he's done to Russia's standing, economic power and general overall geopolitical position. 

[Werthead]

Xi Jinping himself has called for "restraint" and has offered to support peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, along with the French and Germans. It's still not a major condemnation but having Jinping on a screen with Scholz and Macron calling for an end to the conflict is sending a message to the Russian government.

In worrying news for both sides, temperatures in Ukraine are set to unseasonably plunge. Kyiv and Kharkiv will see temperatures between -13C and -20C in the second half of the week.

[Derfel Cadarn]

Won’t affectthe Russians, they’ve plenty of spare fuel to burn for warmth.

Oh…

I wonder if the generals issued winter clothing?