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Ukraine War 6: what the hell are the Russians thinking?


Ser Scot A Ellison

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In another forum a discussion about comparing the losses taken by Russia with the losses taken by the USSR in WW2 has just caused me to play a bit with the numbers. According to the official Russian estimates, the USSR lost 8,668,400 soldiers (I excluded all civilian victims) during the entirety of WW2. Using the battles over Manchuria on May 11th 1939 as a starting point and the ceasing of fighting in Europe on May 8th 1945 as the end point, this means 2188 days of war with roughly 3962 casualties per day.

If we take the Ukrainian estimate of 12,000 dead Russians after 12 days of fighting at face value, somehow Putin is managing to be loosing a quarter of the causalities of freaking WW2 just trying to conquer Ukraine.

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25 minutes ago, broken one said:

Russians use armoured train in Ukraine. Obsolete as it is, still should be safer way to transport supplies than road convoys.

piccie

Have they restoed the rail connections to Ukraine?

I watched “Chernobyl” last night.  It’s interesting how it treats the Ukrainians and Russians as a single ethnic group/Nationality when I watched it before I didn’t even notice that.

It also mentions at the end of the series that Lyudmilla Ignatenko wife of Pripyat Firefighter Vasily Ignatenko lives with her son… in Kyiv.

:(

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15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Have they restoed the rail connections to Ukraine?

I haven't seen any reports in the media, but one would expect so. The Russian armed forces rely heavily on the railway and Ukraine uses the same gauge as Russia.

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Have they restoed the rail connections to Ukraine?

The train has been spotted and recorded in Melitopol, in southern Ukraine. Just saw the film on Twitter. They control the area for some time now, so I think it was easy to fix a section of rails (if that was the problem). 

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On 3/7/2022 at 2:37 PM, Fez said:

Depends on what the purpose of this thread is. If we're just talking about what's going on, it is valuable to have a clear picture of things. If we're trying to organize a charity drive or something, then it may help to have a rosier picture.

But, ignoring all the propaganda, it does seem the war is going about as well as could be hoped for the Ukraine military. And nearly as bad as it could be for Ukrainian civilians.

it is probably not too relevant here but doing it on twitter, reddit or facebook just helps Russia imho.

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1 hour ago, broken one said:

The train has been spotted and recorded in Melitopol, in southern Ukraine. Just saw the film on Twitter. They control the area for some time now, so I think it was easy to fix a section of rails (if that was the problem). 

Early on (day 2 maybe?) Ukraine said they'd destroyed all rail connections with Russia. If true, then yeah, they'd need to get repaired. But Russia does have an entire branch devoted to that (the Railway Troops, I think they're the only country with one) so it'd make sense they'd get repaired sooner or later in an area under Russian control.

I'm sure the trains help Russia, but they aren't guaranteed safety either. The list of visually confirmed Russian losses put together by the OSINT folks on twitter includes 2 trains. Not sure where/when that happened though.

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

The Russians do have the strength (arguably) of not having set out too many red lines for victory. They win when Putin says they win and Putin can declare they've won literally this afternoon, force out some concessions (recognition of Crimea and maybe the Donbas republics, even if only within the contact line, and an agreement not to join NATO for x years) and go home. It will take years to reorganise the Russian military, reequip and resupply, and rebuild the country's economy. Years that Putin (69) doesn't necessarily have, in power if not in general. I think he can sell that as victory in Russia, where it's clear the misinformation and propaganda has been far, far more successful than previously thought. The question is whether he considers an internal propaganda victory worth the absolutely horrendous damage he's done to Russia's standing, economic power and general overall geopolitical position. 

That's not how I would phrase the big question(s) facing Putin/Russia.  To me they are:

1.  Do they look at the costs (economic and geopolitical) as sunk costs?  They should, because that damage is already done regardless of outcome.  But they may not look at it that way.  Until they accept that way of looking at it, there will be no peace, because there's simply no way that Russia is going to get more than they've lost from this endeavor barring a complete unconditional surrender from Ukraine (and probably not even then). 

2.  If they do look at the costs already incurred as sunk costs, then the question is whether the additional costs of continuing the war are greater than the additional gains at the negotiating table.  At the moment, I doubt that Russia would get much/any more from Ukraine than they could have gotten on Feb 20.  Will their hand be stronger if they take Kharkiv or Odesa?  Maybe a bit, but is that worth it if that takes another 2 weeks of economic regression across Russia?  I don't know, but I kinda doubt it. 

3.  Can Russia negotiate with the US/NATO to get these sanctions lifted ASAP once a treaty is signed with Ukraine and troops start pulling out?  If not, then that actually gives them a greater incentive to keep fighting, because if the sanctions are in place either way, then they might as well try to win the war.  That's a big part of why I think that the West should make clear their willingness to remove the sanctions relatively quickly after a Russian withdrawal. 

In sum, Russia's combination of underestimating the western response and using terrible warplan has put them in a spot with no good options.  Negotiating with Ukraine to recognize Crimea + the two independent districts at the current borders (not Russia's preferred larger ones) really might be the best option available to them, even though it is barely a win at all and cost a huge amount of lives and money to get it. 

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3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

In sum, Russia's combination of underestimating the western response and using terrible warplan has put them in a spot with no good options.  Negotiating with Ukraine to recognize Crimea + the two independent districts at the current borders (not Russia's preferred larger ones) really might be the best option available to them, even though it is barely a win at all and cost a huge amount of lives and money to get it. 

I do wonder if that might be the point: Putin shows that he is willing to fight and do things people thought he would not, which may shore up his internal position even if he ends up walking away with nothing more than a bit more stringent negotiation in early February would have done (minus likely five figure deaths of Russian and Ukrainian military and Ukrainian civilians). Plus, cutting off his oligarchs from their resources in the West makes them more dependent on him and thus more loyal, and removes escape routes to other countries.

This entire exercise might end up with Putin getting things he could have gotten without war, but a stronger internal position for however many years he has left (in charge or in general).

One thing worth remembering is that there seems to be a theory that anyone who succeeds Putin might be more reasonable to deal with. That is not a given. There are some in Putin's orbit who are even more hardline and hawkish than he is, and may have already been advocating for attacking supply lines on NATO soil or punishing NATO for supplying weapons, which Putin has so far refused to do.

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13 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Now's the perfect time for Argentina to retake the Falkland Islands again.

I joke, but these disputes will become ever more common as climate change impacts the planet, and it's safe to say based on our reaction to Covid that the train's left the station on that front.  

The Ascension of Irredentistism, the first age.

12 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

Mongolia will rise again!!!

Well it seems P thinks so, with the destruction of cities and populations that resist.  After all the Mongols did occupy Rus, and certainly they and their affiliates settled down in Ukraine -- who do we think the Cossacks are/were?

At least this round the Mongols can't sell the spared women and children as slaves to the Ottomans and the Genoese . . . .

In the meantime:

 

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

There's a growing disgruntlement from some that the "rah rah Ukraine awesome" narrative is getting out of hand,

US Military Intelligence suggests that the nuclear threat is getting more severe:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-GT7WABLJDFBMRDJ6QM5RWXDGKA

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Quote

One thing worth remembering is that there seems to be a theory that anyone who succeeds Putin might be more reasonable to deal with. That is not a given. There are some in Putin's orbit who are even more hardline and hawkish than he is, and may have already been advocating for attacking supply lines on NATO soil or punishing NATO for supplying weapons, which Putin has so far refused to do.

 

It does seem like Putin is trying to move the lines on what arms NATO can provide and might have succeeded in at least one area.. Poland may have backed off the plan to supply Soviet jets.

 

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4 hours ago, broken one said:

Russians use armoured train in Ukraine. Obsolete as it is, still should be safer way to transport supplies than road convoys.

piccie

Doesn't look like late winter there, and the soldiers have their sleeves rolled up.  Is no one else skeptical of this photo?

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4 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I do wonder if that might be the point: Putin shows that he is willing to fight and do things people thought he would not, which may shore up his internal position even if he ends up walking away with nothing more than a bit more stringent negotiation in early February would have done (minus likely five figure deaths of Russian and Ukrainian military and Ukrainian civilians). Plus, cutting off his oligarchs from their resources in the West makes them more dependent on him and thus more loyal, and removes escape routes to other countries.

This entire exercise might end up with Putin getting things he could have gotten without war, but a stronger internal position for however many years he has left (in charge or in general).

One thing worth remembering is that there seems to be a theory that anyone who succeeds Putin might be more reasonable to deal with. That is not a given. There are some in Putin's orbit who are even more hardline and hawkish than he is, and may have already been advocating for attacking supply lines on NATO soil or punishing NATO for supplying weapons, which Putin has so far refused to do.

At the same time, it's not a given that the war will even be a standstill at worst for Russia. If Russia can't sort out their supply issues, and if Ukraine keeps receiving aid, it's possible that Ukraine will eventually launch a major counterattack. I doubt they'd ever go into Russia itself, for several reasons, but what if Ukrainian troops took Luhansk and Donetsk? I don't think it's a 0% chance Russia flat out loses a conventional war at this point. Low chance, but not zero.

And then Putin faces the choices of utter humiliation, nukes, or dragging things out for possibly years as Russia mass mobilizes.

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Good catch, I agree it doesn't look like current photo.

23 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This entire exercise might end up with Putin getting things he could have gotten without war, but a stronger internal position for however many years he has left (in charge or in general).

If that's the case, Putain is even more hideous creature than everybody knows he is.

Motherfuckers

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16 minutes ago, Zorral said:

US Military Intelligence suggests that the nuclear threat is getting more severe:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-GT7WABLJDFBMRDJ6QM5RWXDGKA

I'm watching that briefing now, I don't think they've really said that. They said there is no posture change from Russia's actual nuclear forces. There are longer-term concerns over Russia switching its entire inventory over to hypersonic missiles and so on, but that does not effect the American deterrent situation.

They definitely do indicate they cannot rule out the Russians using a tactical battlefield nuke in this conflict though.

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15 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I don't think they've really said that. They said there is no posture change from Russia's actual nuclear forces

I sure hope so!

These are the times when it is more than difficult to sort out what my brain should tell me vs. what I hope.  :(

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20 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Agreed, but....

He's out of the country, so should have plenty of access to non-Russian information.

You are talking about someone who just turned 20 years old on February 28, who probably has very little time to do anything other than focus on his sport, and who probably is rarely out the sight of his coaches. So I doubt if he really has "plenty of access to non-Russian information" no matter what country he's in at the moment. 

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